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Strategy Addict: Week 10 NFL Wagering Guide

Hello, Field Gull friends! As I write this I’m finally getting to watch the Steve Largent episode of A Football Life on NFL Network. I can guarantee that the following selections have better odds than Largent did in becoming my childhood hero. Your SEO keywords of the week are, “Jennifer Lawrence”.

Yeah, you'll still probably win this week
Yeah, you'll still probably win this week
Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Jacksonville (+6) @ Baltimore

With the Ravens coming off of a bye to host the 2-6 Jaguars, Baltimore has been instilled as almost a touchdown favorite in Week 10. However, unless the Ravens changed their roster over the bye week they will still bring the 29th ranked passing defense in YPG into this game. They only have 3 interceptions over 8 games, the same amount as the Seattle Seahawks. Wait, what?

This pick is all about the emergence of the Jacksonville passing game as a legitimate threat. Blake Bortles has thrown two touchdowns in four straight games, which should continue here. His yards per game passing has improved from last year to the tune of 207.7 to 274.1. If only they could get new shiny TE Julius Thomas going they might really take off. Having no Terrell Suggs around for Baltimore could kick start that process as well.

With every team in the AFC South having a losing record and a negative point differential, the 2-6 Jaguars still have a shot at sneaking into the playoffs, especially with the Luck-less Colts leading the division at 4-5*. Baltimore has no shot at all in the AFC and I don’t care how their press releases went over the bye week, the injuries are just too great to overcome this year. The Jaguars should keep this game close, if not break their 13 game road losing streak, making +6 a great value ATS.

Betting System: *SB 50 MVP – Matt Hasselbeck

New England @ New York Giants (+7.5)

The New York Giants have the Patriots’ number and that is all there is to this. In their seven games played, the Giants are 6-1 ATS against the Patriots, and in only one of those games did New England win by more than a field goal.

Now I’m not saying to avoid filling your fantasy teams with Patriots, as the Giants still give up a league worst 422.6 yards per game. Especially troubling for Giants fans is that they only average one sack per game. Tom Brady will have plenty of time to pick apart the soft underbelly of the Giants defense in this one.

Nope, this call is all about the coaching matchup. As we have long standing coaches and systems in place for both of these teams, those macro ATS trends actually could mean something. Add to that a home team that could be getting almost ten points by the time the public blindly backs the Patriots until game time and you have some value. The line has already inflated to 8.5 points at some sites. Wait until game time and you could possible get a team with a winning record +9 or +10 at home. Not bad.

Betting System: Frustrated Brady Face

Houston @ Cincinnati (Over 47)

While you’ll want to wait for game time to plunk any imaginary money on the Giants, you’ll want to jump on this line early. The public loves betting the Over on Monday Night Football and this will be no exception.

Cincinnati vaguely reminds me of the 2013 Seahawks in that they are playing some of the best football in the league, yet they still have that chip on their shoulder like they have to prove they are really ‘that good’. They blew the Browns out last Thursday night so they will have plenty of rest coming into this game as well.

A little nugget from Josh Kirkendall at Cincy Jungle – Brian Hoyer of the Texans has passed for two touchdowns in five straight games, a franchise record. We only need Houston to be slightly competitive in this game for the over to be in play, and the recent performances by Brian Hoyer and DeAndre Hopkins give us some hope that they will be able to hang around for a quarter or two. While the Bengals are 6th overall in offense but 3rd in scoring, Houston is 9th overall in offense and 20th in scoring with 21.8 points per game. They can definitely move the ball, and 21 points should be good enough with the Bengals being 11 point favorites to cash the Over here.

Betting System: Big Play Offense with Nothing to Lose

As always, do your due diligence and be aware that lines are made to get action at 50% on each side and are not a 50/50 proposition. Good luck!