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SCOAR: Week 10 Rankings & Predictions

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Patriots and Bengals stand out, while the Seahawks remain in 11th after the bye.

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

With their bye week in week 9, Seattle held its place in 11th. The team is very lopsided in SCOAR this year, placing 5th in defense while only managing a 24th ranking offense. The next three weeks will be a good test, as they face the 3rd ranked Cardinals, 32nd ranked Niners, and 5th ranked Steelers.

For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...

SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.

Looking Back

SCOAR had another good week straight up, coming in at 9-4. Against the spread it was another middling performance, with a 6-5-2 record. This brings the season totals to 88-44 (0.667) straight up and 59-59-11 (0.500) ATS.

Game Predicted Actual Game Predicted Actual
Cleveland Browns 15 10 Green Bay Packers 20 29
Cincinnati Bengals 33 31 Carolina Panthers 24 37
Washington Redskins 16 10 Tennessee Titans 20 34
New England Patriots 36 27 New Orleans Saints 28 28
Miami Dolphins 21 17 St. Louis Rams 14 18
Buffalo Bills 28 33 Minnesota Vikings 16 21
Jacksonville Jaguars 15 23 Oakland Raiders 18 35
New York Jets 31 28 Pittsburgh Steelers 24 38
New York Giants 30 32 Atlanta Falcons 26 16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 18 San Francisco 49ers 14 17
Denver Broncos 23 24 Philadelphia Eagles 21 33
Indianapolis Colts 15 27 Dallas Cowboys 16 27
Chicago Bears 24 22
San Diego Chargers 31 19

Highs & Lows

  • Week 9 Best Single Game SCOAR – New England Patriots: 31.48
  • Week 9 Worst Single Game SCOAR – Cleveland Browns: -24.16
  • Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Seattle Seahawks: 69.92 (week 3)
  • Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: -73.08 (week 3)

On to the Numbers!

No change in the top 2 positions, with the Patriots (13.43) in first and the Bengals (10.64) in second. The Cardinals moved up one spot into third, with a rating of 7.58. The Panthers break into the top five this week, coming in at number four with a rating of 6.01. The fifth spot is still held by the Steelers, just barely holding off the Broncos with a SCOAR of 5.75. The Seahawks remain in 11th at 2.63.

Team W L SOS O-SCOAR O Rank D-SCOAR D Rank SCOAR Last Week Change
1 New England Patriots 8 0 -0.18 8.22 1 -5.21 3 13.43 1 -
2 Cincinnati Bengals 8 0 0.37 4.09 3 -6.55 1 10.64 2 -
3 Arizona Cardinals 6 2 -3.04 5.80 2 -1.78 11 7.58 4 1
4 Carolina Panthers 8 0 -1.12 3.33 4 -2.68 10 6.01 7 3
5 Pittsburgh Steelers 5 4 2.24 0.54 12 -5.21 4 5.75 5 -
6 Denver Broncos 7 1 -1.19 -0.66 17 -6.29 2 5.64 3 (3)
7 Green Bay Packers 6 2 -0.29 3.26 7 -1.03 12 4.30 8 1
8 New York Jets 5 3 0.05 0.38 13 -3.69 8 4.06 6 (2)
9 Philadelphia Eagles 4 4 0.45 0.09 15 -3.80 7 3.90 9 -
10 Buffalo Bills 4 4 0.37 2.21 9 -0.80 13 3.01 14 4
11 Seattle Seahawks 4 4 -0.45 -2.54 24 -5.17 5 2.63 11 -
12 Kansas City Chiefs 3 5 0.70 2.18 10 -0.07 17 2.25 13 1
13 St. Louis Rams 4 4 0.37 -2.72 26 -4.44 6 1.71 10 (3)
14 Atlanta Falcons 6 3 -3.31 0.12 14 -0.77 14 0.89 12 (2)
15 Oakland Raiders 4 4 1.12 3.29 5 2.77 25 0.52 15 -
16 Minnesota Vikings 6 2 -3.60 -4.06 30 -3.48 9 -0.59 18 2
17 New York Giants 5 4 -1.69 2.28 8 3.01 26 -0.73 19 2
18 Indianapolis Colts 4 5 1.51 -0.92 18 -0.07 18 -0.85 23 5
19 New Orleans Saints 4 5 0.22 3.29 6 4.30 29 -1.01 16 (3)
20 Baltimore Ravens 2 6 1.33 1.17 11 2.54 24 -1.36 17 (3)
21 Dallas Cowboys 2 6 2.79 -2.44 22 -0.75 15 -1.69 21 -
22 Washington Redskins 3 5 1.61 -2.77 27 -0.56 16 -2.21 20 (2)
23 Miami Dolphins 3 5 0.47 -2.28 19 1.36 21 -3.64 22 (1)
24 Cleveland Browns 2 7 1.94 -2.51 23 2.37 23 -4.88 25 1
25 San Diego Chargers 2 7 -0.06 -0.56 16 4.37 30 -4.93 24 (1)
26 Houston Texans 3 5 -1.79 -2.94 29 2.32 22 -5.26 26 -
27 Jacksonville Jaguars 2 6 1.25 -2.35 21 3.55 28 -5.89 29 2
28 Chicago Bears 3 5 0.36 -2.79 28 3.17 27 -5.96 27 (1)
29 Tennessee Titans 2 6 -2.31 -6.25 31 0.12 19 -6.36 30 1
30 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 5 -1.82 -2.28 20 4.48 31 -6.76 28 (2)
31 Detroit Lions 1 7 0.75 -2.68 25 6.25 32 -8.92 31 -
32 San Francisco 49ers 3 6 2.24 -9.20 32 0.45 20 -9.65 32 -

Notable Rankings

  • Biggest Climb - Colts, moving up 5 spots to #18
  • Deepest Fall – 4 way tie dropping 3 spots
  • Highest Loser - Chiefs at #12
  • Lowest Winner - Giants at #17
  • Most Neutral – Raiders (#15) with a SCOAR of 0.52

Week 9 SCOAR predictions

I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).

A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.

Buffalo Bills 21 Detroit Lions 16
New York Jets 26 Green Bay Packers 34
Dallas Cowboys 24 Carolina Panthers 26
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Tennessee Titans 17
Chicago Bears 14 New Orleans Saints 25
St. Louis Rams 25 Washington Redskins 27
Miami Dolphins 16 Cleveland Browns 15
Philadelphia Eagles 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 28
Jacksonville Jaguars 23 Minnesota Vikings 22
Baltimore Ravens 30 Oakland Raiders 23
New England Patriots 34 Kansas City Chiefs 17
New York Giants 23 Denver Broncos 25
Arizona Cardinals 24 Houston Texans 14
Seattle Seahawks 19 Cincinnati Bengals 32