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With their bye week in week 9, Seattle held its place in 11th. The team is very lopsided in SCOAR this year, placing 5th in defense while only managing a 24th ranking offense. The next three weeks will be a good test, as they face the 3rd ranked Cardinals, 32nd ranked Niners, and 5th ranked Steelers.
For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...
SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.
Looking Back
SCOAR had another good week straight up, coming in at 9-4. Against the spread it was another middling performance, with a 6-5-2 record. This brings the season totals to 88-44 (0.667) straight up and 59-59-11 (0.500) ATS.
| Game | Predicted | Actual | Game | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 15 | 10 | Green Bay Packers | 20 | 29 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 33 | 31 | Carolina Panthers | 24 | 37 | |
| Washington Redskins | 16 | 10 | Tennessee Titans | 20 | 34 | |
| New England Patriots | 36 | 27 | New Orleans Saints | 28 | 28 | |
| Miami Dolphins | 21 | 17 | St. Louis Rams | 14 | 18 | |
| Buffalo Bills | 28 | 33 | Minnesota Vikings | 16 | 21 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 15 | 23 | Oakland Raiders | 18 | 35 | |
| New York Jets | 31 | 28 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 24 | 38 | |
| New York Giants | 30 | 32 | Atlanta Falcons | 26 | 16 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 28 | 18 | San Francisco 49ers | 14 | 17 | |
| Denver Broncos | 23 | 24 | Philadelphia Eagles | 21 | 33 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 15 | 27 | Dallas Cowboys | 16 | 27 | |
| Chicago Bears | 24 | 22 | ||||
| San Diego Chargers | 31 | 19 |
Highs & Lows
- Week 9 Best Single Game SCOAR – New England Patriots: 31.48
- Week 9 Worst Single Game SCOAR – Cleveland Browns: -24.16
- Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Seattle Seahawks: 69.92 (week 3)
- Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: -73.08 (week 3)
On to the Numbers!
No change in the top 2 positions, with the Patriots (13.43) in first and the Bengals (10.64) in second. The Cardinals moved up one spot into third, with a rating of 7.58. The Panthers break into the top five this week, coming in at number four with a rating of 6.01. The fifth spot is still held by the Steelers, just barely holding off the Broncos with a SCOAR of 5.75. The Seahawks remain in 11th at 2.63.
| Team | W | L | SOS | O-SCOAR | O Rank | D-SCOAR | D Rank | SCOAR | Last Week | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England Patriots | 8 | 0 | -0.18 | 8.22 | 1 | -5.21 | 3 | 13.43 | 1 | - |
| 2 | Cincinnati Bengals | 8 | 0 | 0.37 | 4.09 | 3 | -6.55 | 1 | 10.64 | 2 | - |
| 3 | Arizona Cardinals | 6 | 2 | -3.04 | 5.80 | 2 | -1.78 | 11 | 7.58 | 4 | 1 |
| 4 | Carolina Panthers | 8 | 0 | -1.12 | 3.33 | 4 | -2.68 | 10 | 6.01 | 7 | 3 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 5 | 4 | 2.24 | 0.54 | 12 | -5.21 | 4 | 5.75 | 5 | - |
| 6 | Denver Broncos | 7 | 1 | -1.19 | -0.66 | 17 | -6.29 | 2 | 5.64 | 3 | (3) |
| 7 | Green Bay Packers | 6 | 2 | -0.29 | 3.26 | 7 | -1.03 | 12 | 4.30 | 8 | 1 |
| 8 | New York Jets | 5 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.38 | 13 | -3.69 | 8 | 4.06 | 6 | (2) |
| 9 | Philadelphia Eagles | 4 | 4 | 0.45 | 0.09 | 15 | -3.80 | 7 | 3.90 | 9 | - |
| 10 | Buffalo Bills | 4 | 4 | 0.37 | 2.21 | 9 | -0.80 | 13 | 3.01 | 14 | 4 |
| 11 | Seattle Seahawks | 4 | 4 | -0.45 | -2.54 | 24 | -5.17 | 5 | 2.63 | 11 | - |
| 12 | Kansas City Chiefs | 3 | 5 | 0.70 | 2.18 | 10 | -0.07 | 17 | 2.25 | 13 | 1 |
| 13 | St. Louis Rams | 4 | 4 | 0.37 | -2.72 | 26 | -4.44 | 6 | 1.71 | 10 | (3) |
| 14 | Atlanta Falcons | 6 | 3 | -3.31 | 0.12 | 14 | -0.77 | 14 | 0.89 | 12 | (2) |
| 15 | Oakland Raiders | 4 | 4 | 1.12 | 3.29 | 5 | 2.77 | 25 | 0.52 | 15 | - |
| 16 | Minnesota Vikings | 6 | 2 | -3.60 | -4.06 | 30 | -3.48 | 9 | -0.59 | 18 | 2 |
| 17 | New York Giants | 5 | 4 | -1.69 | 2.28 | 8 | 3.01 | 26 | -0.73 | 19 | 2 |
| 18 | Indianapolis Colts | 4 | 5 | 1.51 | -0.92 | 18 | -0.07 | 18 | -0.85 | 23 | 5 |
| 19 | New Orleans Saints | 4 | 5 | 0.22 | 3.29 | 6 | 4.30 | 29 | -1.01 | 16 | (3) |
| 20 | Baltimore Ravens | 2 | 6 | 1.33 | 1.17 | 11 | 2.54 | 24 | -1.36 | 17 | (3) |
| 21 | Dallas Cowboys | 2 | 6 | 2.79 | -2.44 | 22 | -0.75 | 15 | -1.69 | 21 | - |
| 22 | Washington Redskins | 3 | 5 | 1.61 | -2.77 | 27 | -0.56 | 16 | -2.21 | 20 | (2) |
| 23 | Miami Dolphins | 3 | 5 | 0.47 | -2.28 | 19 | 1.36 | 21 | -3.64 | 22 | (1) |
| 24 | Cleveland Browns | 2 | 7 | 1.94 | -2.51 | 23 | 2.37 | 23 | -4.88 | 25 | 1 |
| 25 | San Diego Chargers | 2 | 7 | -0.06 | -0.56 | 16 | 4.37 | 30 | -4.93 | 24 | (1) |
| 26 | Houston Texans | 3 | 5 | -1.79 | -2.94 | 29 | 2.32 | 22 | -5.26 | 26 | - |
| 27 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 2 | 6 | 1.25 | -2.35 | 21 | 3.55 | 28 | -5.89 | 29 | 2 |
| 28 | Chicago Bears | 3 | 5 | 0.36 | -2.79 | 28 | 3.17 | 27 | -5.96 | 27 | (1) |
| 29 | Tennessee Titans | 2 | 6 | -2.31 | -6.25 | 31 | 0.12 | 19 | -6.36 | 30 | 1 |
| 30 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3 | 5 | -1.82 | -2.28 | 20 | 4.48 | 31 | -6.76 | 28 | (2) |
| 31 | Detroit Lions | 1 | 7 | 0.75 | -2.68 | 25 | 6.25 | 32 | -8.92 | 31 | - |
| 32 | San Francisco 49ers | 3 | 6 | 2.24 | -9.20 | 32 | 0.45 | 20 | -9.65 | 32 | - |
Notable Rankings
- Biggest Climb - Colts, moving up 5 spots to #18
- Deepest Fall – 4 way tie dropping 3 spots
- Highest Loser - Chiefs at #12
- Lowest Winner - Giants at #17
- Most Neutral – Raiders (#15) with a SCOAR of 0.52
Week 9 SCOAR predictions
I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).
A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.
| Buffalo Bills | 21 | Detroit Lions | 16 | |
| New York Jets | 26 | Green Bay Packers | 34 | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 24 | Carolina Panthers | 26 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 24 | Tennessee Titans | 17 | |
| Chicago Bears | 14 | New Orleans Saints | 25 | |
| St. Louis Rams | 25 | Washington Redskins | 27 | |
| Miami Dolphins | 16 | Cleveland Browns | 15 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 27 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 28 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 23 | Minnesota Vikings | 22 | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 30 | Oakland Raiders | 23 | |
| New England Patriots | 34 | Kansas City Chiefs | 17 | |
| New York Giants | 23 | Denver Broncos | 25 | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 24 | Houston Texans | 14 | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 19 | Cincinnati Bengals | 32 |