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After a disappointing loss, of which there have been far too many this season, the Seahawks still remain just outside the top 10, holding at 11th. The offensive rating increased, moving Seattle out of the cellar to an almost neutral -0.28, good enough for 17th. The defensive rating, however, took a hit after allowing 39 points, dropping the team to 9th in that category. Seattle gets a chance to fix some of their issues, going against the 32nd ranked 49ers this week before a tough matchup with the 5th ranked Steelers.
For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...
SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.
Looking Back
SCOAR (along with everyone else’s predictions) had a rough week, only managing a 5-9 straight up record. SCOAR didn’t do much better against the spread, coming in at 6-8. This brings the season totals to 93-53 (0.637) straight up and 65-67-11 (0.492) ATS.
| Game | Predicted | Actual | Game | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 21 | 22 | Detroit Lions | 16 | 18 | |
| New York Jets | 26 | 17 | Green Bay Packers | 34 | 16 | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 24 | 6 | Carolina Panthers | 26 | 27 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 24 | 10 | Tennessee Titans | 17 | 10 | |
| Chicago Bears | 14 | 37 | New Orleans Saints | 25 | 14 | |
| St. Louis Rams | 25 | 13 | Washington Redskins | 27 | 47 | |
| Miami Dolphins | 16 | 20 | Cleveland Browns | 15 | 9 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 27 | 19 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 28 | 30 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 23 | 22 | Minnesota Vikings | 22 | 30 | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 30 | 20 | Oakland Raiders | 23 | 14 | |
| New England Patriots | 34 | 27 | Kansas City Chiefs | 17 | 29 | |
| New York Giants | 23 | 26 | Denver Broncos | 25 | 13 | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 24 | 39 | Houston Texans | 14 | 10 | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 19 | 32 | Cincinnati Bengals | 32 | 6 |
Highs & Lows
- Week 10 Best Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: 26.24
- Week 10 Worst Single Game SCOAR – St. Louis Rams: -32.27
- Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Seattle Seahawks: 71.91 (week 3)
- Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: -73.21 (week 3)
On to the Numbers!
Despite a week full of upsets, the top of the rankings were very steady, with no shuffling inside the top five. The Patriots, featuring the top ranked offense and third ranked defense, remain in first coming in at 12.82. They hold a wide margin over the 2nd ranked Bengals (9.22). Third through fifth is a much closer race, with the Cardinals at 7.04, the Panthers at 6.53, and the Steelers at 5.88. After the rare Seahawks shootout, Seattle remains in 11th place moving up slightly to 2.74.
| Team | W | L | SOS | O-SCOAR | O Rank | D-SCOAR | D Rank | SCOAR | Last Week | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England Patriots | 9 | 0 | 0.14 | 8.15 | 1 | -4.67 | 3 | 12.82 | 1 | - |
| 2 | Cincinnati Bengals | 8 | 1 | -0.20 | 2.02 | 9 | -7.20 | 1 | 9.22 | 2 | - |
| 3 | Arizona Cardinals | 7 | 2 | -2.99 | 6.87 | 2 | -0.16 | 17 | 7.04 | 3 | - |
| 4 | Carolina Panthers | 9 | 0 | -2.05 | 3.48 | 4 | -3.04 | 8 | 6.53 | 4 | - |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6 | 4 | 0.67 | 0.46 | 12 | -5.41 | 2 | 5.88 | 5 | - |
| 6 | Kansas City Chiefs | 4 | 5 | 1.43 | 3.90 | 3 | -0.91 | 15 | 4.81 | 12 | 6 |
| 7 | New York Jets | 5 | 4 | 0.30 | -0.16 | 15 | -3.53 | 6 | 3.37 | 8 | 1 |
| 8 | Buffalo Bills | 5 | 4 | 0.84 | 2.35 | 8 | -0.98 | 14 | 3.32 | 10 | 2 |
| 9 | Denver Broncos | 7 | 2 | -0.65 | -1.21 | 21 | -4.51 | 5 | 3.30 | 6 | (3) |
| 10 | Philadelphia Eagles | 4 | 5 | -0.12 | -0.16 | 16 | -3.25 | 7 | 3.09 | 9 | (1) |
| 11 | Seattle Seahawks | 4 | 5 | -0.02 | -0.28 | 17 | -3.02 | 9 | 2.74 | 11 | - |
| 12 | Green Bay Packers | 6 | 3 | -0.98 | 1.25 | 10 | -1.16 | 13 | 2.42 | 7 | (5) |
| 13 | Minnesota Vikings | 7 | 2 | -2.88 | -2.86 | 25 | -4.62 | 4 | 1.77 | 16 | 3 |
| 14 | New York Giants | 5 | 5 | -0.63 | 3.32 | 5 | 2.35 | 24 | 0.98 | 17 | 3 |
| 15 | Atlanta Falcons | 6 | 3 | -3.19 | 0.65 | 11 | -0.26 | 16 | 0.91 | 14 | (1) |
| 16 | Washington Redskins | 4 | 5 | 0.77 | -0.46 | 18 | -1.23 | 12 | 0.77 | 22 | 6 |
| 17 | Oakland Raiders | 4 | 5 | 0.66 | 2.97 | 6 | 3.65 | 29 | -0.67 | 15 | (2) |
| 18 | Indianapolis Colts | 4 | 5 | 1.16 | -0.84 | 20 | 0.67 | 21 | -1.51 | 18 | - |
| 19 | St. Louis Rams | 4 | 5 | 0.07 | -4.20 | 29 | -2.42 | 10 | -1.79 | 13 | (6) |
| 20 | Miami Dolphins | 4 | 5 | 1.27 | -1.58 | 22 | 0.95 | 22 | -2.53 | 23 | 3 |
| 21 | Chicago Bears | 4 | 5 | 0.51 | -0.53 | 19 | 2.25 | 23 | -2.79 | 28 | 7 |
| 22 | Baltimore Ravens | 2 | 7 | -0.26 | -0.05 | 14 | 2.88 | 25 | -2.93 | 20 | (2) |
| 23 | Houston Texans | 4 | 5 | -0.12 | -2.83 | 24 | 0.16 | 18 | -3.00 | 26 | 3 |
| 24 | New Orleans Saints | 4 | 6 | 0.08 | 2.49 | 7 | 6.15 | 32 | -3.67 | 19 | (5) |
| 25 | Dallas Cowboys | 2 | 7 | 1.63 | -5.37 | 30 | -1.65 | 11 | -3.72 | 21 | (4) |
| 26 | San Diego Chargers | 2 | 7 | -0.18 | 0.07 | 13 | 4.65 | 31 | -4.58 | 25 | (1) |
| 27 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3 | 6 | 1.09 | -1.86 | 23 | 3.41 | 28 | -5.27 | 27 | - |
| 28 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4 | 5 | -1.50 | -3.27 | 27 | 3.00 | 26 | -6.27 | 30 | 2 |
| 29 | Tennessee Titans | 2 | 7 | -1.51 | -6.41 | 31 | 0.58 | 20 | -6.99 | 29 | - |
| 30 | Detroit Lions | 2 | 7 | 1.83 | -2.90 | 26 | 4.27 | 30 | -7.18 | 31 | 1 |
| 31 | Cleveland Browns | 2 | 8 | 1.18 | -3.95 | 28 | 3.39 | 27 | -7.34 | 24 | (7) |
| 32 | San Francisco 49ers | 3 | 6 | 1.89 | -9.57 | 32 | 0.30 | 19 | -9.87 | 32 | - |
Notable Rankings
- Biggest Climb - Bears, moving up 7 spots to #21
- Deepest Fall – Browns, dropping 7 spots to #31
- Highest Loser - Chiefs at #6
- Lowest Winner - Falcons at #15
- Most Neutral – Raiders (#17) with a SCOAR of -0.67
Week 11 SCOAR predictions
I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).
A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.
| Tennessee Titans | 21 | Oakland Raiders | 29 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 23 | Detroit Lions | 25 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 20 | New York Jets | 22 | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 27 | Houston Texans | 19 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 16 | Denver Broncos | 23 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 28 | Chicago Bears | 19 | |
| Green Bay Packers | 18 | St. Louis Rams | 20 | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 21 | Baltimore Ravens | 22 | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 18 | Washington Redskins | 18 | |
| Miami Dolphins | 22 | Carolina Panthers | 28 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 23 | San Francisco 49ers | 9 | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 27 | Seattle Seahawks | 25 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 29 | Buffalo Bills | 20 | |
| San Diego Chargers | 24 | New England Patriots | 33 |