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SCOAR: Week 11 Rankings & Predictions

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The top five is unchanged despite a week full of upsets. The Seahawks hold steady at 11th.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

After a disappointing loss, of which there have been far too many this season, the Seahawks still remain just outside the top 10, holding at 11th. The offensive rating increased, moving Seattle out of the cellar to an almost neutral -0.28, good enough for 17th. The defensive rating, however, took a hit after allowing 39 points, dropping the team to 9th in that category. Seattle gets a chance to fix some of their issues, going against the 32nd ranked 49ers this week before a tough matchup with the 5th ranked Steelers.

For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...

SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.

Looking Back

SCOAR (along with everyone else’s predictions) had a rough week, only managing a 5-9 straight up record. SCOAR didn’t do much better against the spread, coming in at 6-8. This brings the season totals to 93-53 (0.637) straight up and 65-67-11 (0.492) ATS.

Game Predicted Actual Game Predicted Actual
Buffalo Bills 21 22 Detroit Lions 16 18
New York Jets 26 17 Green Bay Packers 34 16
Dallas Cowboys 24 6 Carolina Panthers 26 27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 10 Tennessee Titans 17 10
Chicago Bears 14 37 New Orleans Saints 25 14
St. Louis Rams 25 13 Washington Redskins 27 47
Miami Dolphins 16 20 Cleveland Browns 15 9
Philadelphia Eagles 27 19 Pittsburgh Steelers 28 30
Jacksonville Jaguars 23 22 Minnesota Vikings 22 30
Baltimore Ravens 30 20 Oakland Raiders 23 14
New England Patriots 34 27 Kansas City Chiefs 17 29
New York Giants 23 26 Denver Broncos 25 13
Arizona Cardinals 24 39 Houston Texans 14 10
Seattle Seahawks 19 32 Cincinnati Bengals 32 6

Highs & Lows

  • Week 10 Best Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: 26.24
  • Week 10 Worst Single Game SCOAR – St. Louis Rams: -32.27
  • Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Seattle Seahawks: 71.91 (week 3)
  • Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: -73.21 (week 3)

On to the Numbers!

Despite a week full of upsets, the top of the rankings were very steady, with no shuffling inside the top five. The Patriots, featuring the top ranked offense and third ranked defense, remain in first coming in at 12.82. They hold a wide margin over the 2nd ranked Bengals (9.22). Third through fifth is a much closer race, with the Cardinals at 7.04, the Panthers at 6.53, and the Steelers at 5.88. After the rare Seahawks shootout, Seattle remains in 11th place moving up slightly to 2.74.

Team W L SOS O-SCOAR O Rank D-SCOAR D Rank SCOAR Last Week Change
1 New England Patriots 9 0 0.14 8.15 1 -4.67 3 12.82 1 -
2 Cincinnati Bengals 8 1 -0.20 2.02 9 -7.20 1 9.22 2 -
3 Arizona Cardinals 7 2 -2.99 6.87 2 -0.16 17 7.04 3 -
4 Carolina Panthers 9 0 -2.05 3.48 4 -3.04 8 6.53 4 -
5 Pittsburgh Steelers 6 4 0.67 0.46 12 -5.41 2 5.88 5 -
6 Kansas City Chiefs 4 5 1.43 3.90 3 -0.91 15 4.81 12 6
7 New York Jets 5 4 0.30 -0.16 15 -3.53 6 3.37 8 1
8 Buffalo Bills 5 4 0.84 2.35 8 -0.98 14 3.32 10 2
9 Denver Broncos 7 2 -0.65 -1.21 21 -4.51 5 3.30 6 (3)
10 Philadelphia Eagles 4 5 -0.12 -0.16 16 -3.25 7 3.09 9 (1)
11 Seattle Seahawks 4 5 -0.02 -0.28 17 -3.02 9 2.74 11 -
12 Green Bay Packers 6 3 -0.98 1.25 10 -1.16 13 2.42 7 (5)
13 Minnesota Vikings 7 2 -2.88 -2.86 25 -4.62 4 1.77 16 3
14 New York Giants 5 5 -0.63 3.32 5 2.35 24 0.98 17 3
15 Atlanta Falcons 6 3 -3.19 0.65 11 -0.26 16 0.91 14 (1)
16 Washington Redskins 4 5 0.77 -0.46 18 -1.23 12 0.77 22 6
17 Oakland Raiders 4 5 0.66 2.97 6 3.65 29 -0.67 15 (2)
18 Indianapolis Colts 4 5 1.16 -0.84 20 0.67 21 -1.51 18 -
19 St. Louis Rams 4 5 0.07 -4.20 29 -2.42 10 -1.79 13 (6)
20 Miami Dolphins 4 5 1.27 -1.58 22 0.95 22 -2.53 23 3
21 Chicago Bears 4 5 0.51 -0.53 19 2.25 23 -2.79 28 7
22 Baltimore Ravens 2 7 -0.26 -0.05 14 2.88 25 -2.93 20 (2)
23 Houston Texans 4 5 -0.12 -2.83 24 0.16 18 -3.00 26 3
24 New Orleans Saints 4 6 0.08 2.49 7 6.15 32 -3.67 19 (5)
25 Dallas Cowboys 2 7 1.63 -5.37 30 -1.65 11 -3.72 21 (4)
26 San Diego Chargers 2 7 -0.18 0.07 13 4.65 31 -4.58 25 (1)
27 Jacksonville Jaguars 3 6 1.09 -1.86 23 3.41 28 -5.27 27 -
28 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4 5 -1.50 -3.27 27 3.00 26 -6.27 30 2
29 Tennessee Titans 2 7 -1.51 -6.41 31 0.58 20 -6.99 29 -
30 Detroit Lions 2 7 1.83 -2.90 26 4.27 30 -7.18 31 1
31 Cleveland Browns 2 8 1.18 -3.95 28 3.39 27 -7.34 24 (7)
32 San Francisco 49ers 3 6 1.89 -9.57 32 0.30 19 -9.87 32 -

Notable Rankings

  • Biggest Climb - Bears, moving up 7 spots to #21
  • Deepest Fall – Browns, dropping 7 spots to #31
  • Highest Loser - Chiefs at #6
  • Lowest Winner - Falcons at #15
  • Most Neutral – Raiders (#17) with a SCOAR of -0.67

Week 11 SCOAR predictions

I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).

A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.

Tennessee Titans 21 Oakland Raiders 29
Jacksonville Jaguars 23 Detroit Lions 25
Indianapolis Colts 20 New York Jets 22
Atlanta Falcons 27 Houston Texans 19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 Denver Broncos 23
Philadelphia Eagles 28 Chicago Bears 19
Green Bay Packers 18 St. Louis Rams 20
Minnesota Vikings 21 Baltimore Ravens 22
Dallas Cowboys 18 Washington Redskins 18
Miami Dolphins 22 Carolina Panthers 28
Cincinnati Bengals 23 San Francisco 49ers 9
Arizona Cardinals 27 Seattle Seahawks 25
Kansas City Chiefs 29 Buffalo Bills 20
San Diego Chargers 24 New England Patriots 33