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System Addict: Week 11 NFL Wagering Guide

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Hello, Field Gull friends! Got the siding back on the house and the power never really went out, so I’m considering myself lucky. How lucky will be determined by the outcome of the three games that follow. Your SEO phrase of the week is, “Pyro Mini”.

Shall we dance?
Shall we dance?
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Buffalo @ New England (-7)

The Bills will be coming off of a Thursday to Monday mini-bye, but I don’t think that will be enough to cover a touchdown in New England where the Patriots are historically tough. How tough? The Pats are 13-2 SU against the Bills at home since 2000, and 27-3 SU in their last 30 meetings. In addition, the Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Monday night games.

Now, the Giants took care of my underdog ATS call on them versus New England, but it is time to jump back on the Patriots ATS bandwagon in this spot. Even an injury to Julian Edelman shouldn’t slow down the Patriots much, with the slippery Danny Amendola healthy and ready to fill in. Gronk had a huge game in Week 2 against the Bills too, going 7 for 133 with two teeders. In that game Tom Brady threw for 466 yards and three touchdowns as well.

Don’t forget that the Patriots were up 37-13 going into the 4th quarter of that game on the road in Buffalo before going soft in the final frame. The taunting they received from Rex Ryan in the week prior to the game must have hit a nerve with Emperor Palpatine, and Ryan is uncharacteristically humble before this matchup – even praising the Patriots. After flipping out on the sideline when their team beat the Jets in Week 10 this is even more telling. The Bills know they are outclassed and could give up early in this game given the right sized punch in the mouth.

Betting System: Blowhard Versus the Nerd

Indianapolis (+6) @ Atlanta

If you’ve read any System Addict spots this year, you should have known my backing of a Matt Hasselbeck led team was coming. Now, I’ve got the full write up on this game here, but let’s talk about how bad Atlanta’s recent slide has been. It certainly wasn’t good for my and Rob Davies’ bankroll in Week 9.

Atlanta is 2-3 in their last five games, but a not so perfect 0-5 ATS. This has included back-to-back SU losses to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and (gulp) San Francisco 49ers as 8 and 9 point favorites, respectively. The loss to the 49ers was with a +2 turnover differential! Gross!

So what has happened to the Falcons? They can’t stop the run for one thing and let San Francisco’s 4th or 5th (lost count) string running back and Blaine Gabbert amass 133 yards on the ground. This while putting up an entire 17 yards of their own. Remember Devonta Freeman’s ridiculous start to the season? He had twelve rushes for 12 yards against the 49ers. Somebody been watching some tape on that young man.

This basically comes down to a live dog and with Atlanta ranked 18th in overall DVOA and Indianapolis ranked 21st, an outright upset shouldn’t be that big of a surprise in this game.

Betting System: QB Ain’t Got Time for Hair

Oakland @ Detroit (Over 49)

Speaking of DVOA, low and behold the Raiders have the 6th ranked offense according to the statistic. With Detroit ranked along the same lines at 28th, you have to like the chances of Carr and Company to put up some points in the Motor City. Add to this the fact that Detroit just won their "super bowl" of the year by taking down Green Bay at Lambeau and you should have a let down spot for the Lions this week. With the Lions 31st overall scoring defense allowing 29 points per game, the Raiders are going to get theirs.

But the scoring shouldn’t be one sided in this one with the Raiders also ranked 27th in the league in scoring defense, giving up 26.8 points per game. They are 31st in the league in giving up 293.2 yards per game as well. Matthew Stafford should have some success passing in this one, and even with Calvin Johnson nursing a sore ankle, will finally have his full bevy of starters in the wide receiver and tight end position healthy. Look for the Lion’s tight ends, Eric Ebron and Brandon Pettigrew, to catch a teeder or two in this game.

This has the makings to be one of the more exciting games of the morning on Sunday. I'd even wager that Derek Carr might even throw on some mascara for the entire affair. The O/U total has already been raised from 47.5 to 49, but as long as it stays under 50 an Over wager should provide some value.

Betting System: Let Down Game, Let Down Defense

Betting lines and trends courtesy of sportsbookreview.com.

As always, do your due diligence and be aware that lines are made to get action at 50% on each side and are not a 50/50 proposition. Good luck!