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Seattle got back on track last week, defeating the 49ers convincingly (as expected). The win increased their ranking by one spot, finally breaking back into the top 10. The offensive rating has improved lately and now sits in 12th, coming in slightly above average. The defensive rating remains the redeeming factor of the team, ranking 6th. The Seahawks will face a stiff test this week as the 6th ranked Steelers come into town.
For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...
SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.
Looking Back
SCOAR’s straight up predictions bounced back this week, managing an 8-6 record. The results against the spread continued to disappoint with a 4-6-4 record. Damn those draws, SCOAR kept predicting the same line as Vegas. The season totals now stand at 101-59 (0.631) straight up and 69-73-15 (0.486) ATS. I’d like to take a moment to point out that SCOAR is beating Danny and Jacson by 5 games in the straight up picks.
Game | Predicted | Actual | Game | Predicted | Actual | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tennessee Titans | 21 | 13 | Oakland Raiders | 29 | 13 | |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 23 | 19 | Detroit Lions | 25 | 18 | |
Indianapolis Colts | 20 | 24 | New York Jets | 22 | 17 | |
Atlanta Falcons | 27 | 21 | Houston Texans | 19 | 24 | |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 16 | 45 | Denver Broncos | 23 | 17 | |
Philadelphia Eagles | 28 | 17 | Chicago Bears | 19 | 15 | |
Green Bay Packers | 18 | 30 | St. Louis Rams | 20 | 13 | |
Minnesota Vikings | 21 | 13 | Baltimore Ravens | 22 | 16 | |
Dallas Cowboys | 18 | 24 | Washington Redskins | 18 | 16 | |
Miami Dolphins | 22 | 14 | Carolina Panthers | 28 | 44 | |
Cincinnati Bengals | 23 | 31 | San Francisco 49ers | 9 | 13 | |
Arizona Cardinals | 27 | 34 | Seattle Seahawks | 25 | 29 | |
Kansas City Chiefs | 29 | 33 | Buffalo Bills | 20 | 13 | |
San Diego Chargers | 24 | 3 | New England Patriots | 33 | 20 |
Highs & Lows
- Week 11 Best Single Game SCOAR – Kansas City Chiefs: 53.10
- Week 11 Worst Single Game SCOAR – San Diego Chargers: -53.55
- Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Seattle Seahawks: 72.83 (week 3)
- Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: -72.55 (week 3)
On to the Numbers!
Some slight changes in the top five this week, although the top two positions remain the same with the Patriots in first at 12.51 and the Bengals in 2nd at 8.78. We have a new team in third place, as the Panthers move up one spot, coming in at 8.59. The Cardinals dropped into fourth with a rating of 7.37. Surprisingly, their defense is rated quite poorly, ranked 20th and having a positive rating (that’s bad for defense; it means they give up more points than their opponents would score against an average defense). In fifth place we have the resurgent Chiefs (6.70) who started 1-5 before winning their last 4. The Seahawks squeaked into the top 10 this week, coming in at 10th with a rating of 3.43.
Team | W | L | SOS | O-SCOAR | O Rank | D-SCOAR | D Rank | SCOAR | Last Week | Change | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | New England Patriots | 10 | 0 | 0.11 | 7.30 | 2 | -5.21 | 2 | 12.51 | 1 | - |
2 | Cincinnati Bengals | 8 | 2 | 0.55 | 3.16 | 5 | -5.62 | 1 | 8.78 | 2 | - |
3 | Carolina Panthers | 10 | 0 | -1.30 | 4.88 | 3 | -3.71 | 5 | 8.59 | 4 | 1 |
4 | Arizona Cardinals | 8 | 2 | -1.88 | 7.88 | 1 | 0.51 | 20 | 7.37 | 3 | (1) |
5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 5 | 5 | 0.99 | 4.01 | 4 | -2.70 | 9 | 6.70 | 6 | 1 |
6 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6 | 4 | 0.23 | 0.60 | 11 | -4.93 | 3 | 5.53 | 5 | (1) |
7 | Green Bay Packers | 7 | 3 | -0.59 | 2.79 | 7 | -1.87 | 12 | 4.65 | 12 | 5 |
8 | Denver Broncos | 8 | 2 | -0.50 | -1.17 | 21 | -4.75 | 4 | 3.57 | 9 | 1 |
9 | Buffalo Bills | 5 | 5 | 1.49 | 1.80 | 9 | -1.73 | 13 | 3.52 | 8 | (1) |
10 | Seattle Seahawks | 5 | 5 | -0.58 | 0.35 | 12 | -3.09 | 6 | 3.43 | 11 | 1 |
11 | New York Jets | 5 | 5 | -0.66 | -0.78 | 18 | -2.23 | 10 | 1.45 | 7 | (4) |
12 | New York Giants | 5 | 5 | -0.79 | 3.13 | 6 | 2.42 | 25 | 0.71 | 14 | 2 |
13 | Atlanta Falcons | 6 | 4 | -2.93 | 0.07 | 13 | -0.18 | 16 | 0.25 | 15 | 2 |
14 | Minnesota Vikings | 7 | 3 | -2.28 | -2.67 | 26 | -2.86 | 7 | 0.18 | 13 | (1) |
15 | Philadelphia Eagles | 4 | 6 | -0.69 | -1.01 | 20 | -0.62 | 15 | -0.39 | 10 | (5) |
16 | Indianapolis Colts | 5 | 5 | 1.37 | -0.09 | 14 | 0.48 | 19 | -0.58 | 18 | 2 |
17 | Houston Texans | 5 | 5 | 0.66 | -1.80 | 24 | -0.83 | 14 | -0.97 | 23 | 6 |
18 | Washington Redskins | 4 | 6 | 0.98 | -0.85 | 19 | 0.44 | 18 | -1.29 | 16 | (2) |
19 | Chicago Bears | 4 | 6 | 0.75 | -0.48 | 15 | 1.82 | 22 | -2.30 | 21 | 2 |
20 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5 | 5 | -1.13 | -0.51 | 16 | 2.10 | 24 | -2.60 | 28 | 8 |
21 | St. Louis Rams | 4 | 6 | -0.37 | -5.39 | 30 | -2.79 | 8 | -2.60 | 19 | (2) |
22 | Oakland Raiders | 4 | 6 | -0.68 | 1.13 | 10 | 3.82 | 29 | -2.70 | 17 | (5) |
23 | Dallas Cowboys | 3 | 7 | 0.61 | -5.09 | 29 | -2.14 | 11 | -2.95 | 25 | 2 |
24 | Baltimore Ravens | 3 | 7 | -0.91 | -0.53 | 17 | 2.56 | 26 | -3.09 | 22 | (2) |
25 | New Orleans Saints | 4 | 6 | 0.20 | 2.19 | 8 | 5.87 | 32 | -3.69 | 24 | (1) |
26 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 4 | 6 | 0.72 | -1.68 | 23 | 2.72 | 27 | -4.40 | 27 | 1 |
27 | Miami Dolphins | 4 | 6 | 0.38 | -2.49 | 25 | 1.96 | 23 | -4.45 | 20 | (7) |
28 | San Diego Chargers | 2 | 8 | 0.32 | -1.43 | 22 | 5.00 | 31 | -6.43 | 26 | (2) |
29 | Detroit Lions | 3 | 7 | 1.47 | -3.43 | 27 | 3.22 | 28 | -6.66 | 30 | 1 |
30 | Tennessee Titans | 2 | 8 | -1.22 | -7.05 | 31 | 0.12 | 17 | -7.16 | 29 | (1) |
31 | Cleveland Browns | 2 | 8 | 0.47 | -3.94 | 28 | 3.94 | 30 | -7.88 | 31 | - |
32 | San Francisco 49ers | 3 | 7 | 1.99 | -9.37 | 32 | 0.97 | 21 | -10.34 | 32 | - |
Notable Rankings
- Biggest Climb - Bucs, moving up 8 spots to #20
- Deepest Fall – Dolphins, dropping 7 spots to #27
- Highest Loser - Eagles at #15
- Lowest Winner - Vikings at #14
- Most Neutral – Vikings (#14) with a SCOAR of 0.18
Week 11 SCOAR predictions
I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).
A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.
Philadelphia Eagles | 25 | Carolina Panthers | 26 | |
Detroit Lions | 20 | Dallas Cowboys | 16 | |
Chicago Bears | 18 | New Orleans Saints | 23 | |
Green Bay Packers | 29 | Houston Texans | 30 | |
St. Louis Rams | 11 | Minnesota Vikings | 18 | |
Cincinnati Bengals | 25 | Atlanta Falcons | 22 | |
New York Giants | 27 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 23 | |
Washington Redskins | 26 | Indianapolis Colts | 26 | |
Buffalo Bills | 20 | Oakland Raiders | 23 | |
Kansas City Chiefs | 27 | Tennessee Titans | 22 | |
San Diego Chargers | 23 | Miami Dolphins | 17 | |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 28 | New York Jets | 26 | |
Arizona Cardinals | 32 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 19 | |
San Francisco 49ers | 15 | Seattle Seahawks | 20 | |
New England Patriots | 25 | Baltimore Ravens | 25 | |
Denver Broncos | 19 | Cleveland Browns | 23 |