SCOAR: Week 12 Rankings & Predictions

Seattle got back on track last week, defeating the 49ers convincingly (as expected). The win increased their ranking by one spot, finally breaking back into the top 10. The offensive rating has improved lately and now sits in 12th, coming in slightly above average. The defensive rating remains the redeeming factor of the team, ranking 6th. The Seahawks will face a stiff test this week as the 6th ranked Steelers come into town.

For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...

SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.

Looking Back

SCOAR’s straight up predictions bounced back this week, managing an 8-6 record. The results against the spread continued to disappoint with a 4-6-4 record. Damn those draws, SCOAR kept predicting the same line as Vegas. The season totals now stand at 101-59 (0.631) straight up and 69-73-15 (0.486) ATS. I’d like to take a moment to point out that SCOAR is beating Danny and Jacson by 5 games in the straight up picks.

Highs & Lows

• Week 11 Best Single Game SCOAR – Kansas City Chiefs: 53.10
• Week 11 Worst Single Game SCOAR – San Diego Chargers: -53.55
• Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Seattle Seahawks: 72.83 (week 3)
• Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: -72.55 (week 3)

On to the Numbers!

Some slight changes in the top five this week, although the top two positions remain the same with the Patriots in first at 12.51 and the Bengals in 2nd at 8.78. We have a new team in third place, as the Panthers move up one spot, coming in at 8.59. The Cardinals dropped into fourth with a rating of 7.37. Surprisingly, their defense is rated quite poorly, ranked 20th and having a positive rating (that’s bad for defense; it means they give up more points than their opponents would score against an average defense). In fifth place we have the resurgent Chiefs (6.70) who started 1-5 before winning their last 4. The Seahawks squeaked into the top 10 this week, coming in at 10th with a rating of 3.43.

Notable Rankings

• Biggest Climb - Bucs, moving up 8 spots to #20
• Deepest Fall – Dolphins, dropping 7 spots to #27
• Highest Loser - Eagles at #15
• Lowest Winner - Vikings at #14
• Most Neutral – Vikings (#14) with a SCOAR of 0.18

Week 11 SCOAR predictions

I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).

A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.