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SCOAR: Week 12 Rankings & Predictions

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The Seahawks move into the top 10.

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Seattle got back on track last week, defeating the 49ers convincingly (as expected). The win increased their ranking by one spot, finally breaking back into the top 10. The offensive rating has improved lately and now sits in 12th, coming in slightly above average. The defensive rating remains the redeeming factor of the team, ranking 6th. The Seahawks will face a stiff test this week as the 6th ranked Steelers come into town.

For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...

SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.

Looking Back

SCOAR’s straight up predictions bounced back this week, managing an 8-6 record. The results against the spread continued to disappoint with a 4-6-4 record. Damn those draws, SCOAR kept predicting the same line as Vegas. The season totals now stand at 101-59 (0.631) straight up and 69-73-15 (0.486) ATS. I’d like to take a moment to point out that SCOAR is beating Danny and Jacson by 5 games in the straight up picks.

Game Predicted Actual Game Predicted Actual
Tennessee Titans 21 13 Oakland Raiders 29 13
Jacksonville Jaguars 23 19 Detroit Lions 25 18
Indianapolis Colts 20 24 New York Jets 22 17
Atlanta Falcons 27 21 Houston Texans 19 24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 45 Denver Broncos 23 17
Philadelphia Eagles 28 17 Chicago Bears 19 15
Green Bay Packers 18 30 St. Louis Rams 20 13
Minnesota Vikings 21 13 Baltimore Ravens 22 16
Dallas Cowboys 18 24 Washington Redskins 18 16
Miami Dolphins 22 14 Carolina Panthers 28 44
Cincinnati Bengals 23 31 San Francisco 49ers 9 13
Arizona Cardinals 27 34 Seattle Seahawks 25 29
Kansas City Chiefs 29 33 Buffalo Bills 20 13
San Diego Chargers 24 3 New England Patriots 33 20

Highs & Lows

  • Week 11 Best Single Game SCOAR – Kansas City Chiefs: 53.10
  • Week 11 Worst Single Game SCOAR – San Diego Chargers: -53.55
  • Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Seattle Seahawks: 72.83 (week 3)
  • Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: -72.55 (week 3)

On to the Numbers!

Some slight changes in the top five this week, although the top two positions remain the same with the Patriots in first at 12.51 and the Bengals in 2nd at 8.78. We have a new team in third place, as the Panthers move up one spot, coming in at 8.59. The Cardinals dropped into fourth with a rating of 7.37. Surprisingly, their defense is rated quite poorly, ranked 20th and having a positive rating (that’s bad for defense; it means they give up more points than their opponents would score against an average defense). In fifth place we have the resurgent Chiefs (6.70) who started 1-5 before winning their last 4. The Seahawks squeaked into the top 10 this week, coming in at 10th with a rating of 3.43.

Team W L SOS O-SCOAR O Rank D-SCOAR D Rank SCOAR Last Week Change
1 New England Patriots 10 0 0.11 7.30 2 -5.21 2 12.51 1 -
2 Cincinnati Bengals 8 2 0.55 3.16 5 -5.62 1 8.78 2 -
3 Carolina Panthers 10 0 -1.30 4.88 3 -3.71 5 8.59 4 1
4 Arizona Cardinals 8 2 -1.88 7.88 1 0.51 20 7.37 3 (1)
5 Kansas City Chiefs 5 5 0.99 4.01 4 -2.70 9 6.70 6 1
6 Pittsburgh Steelers 6 4 0.23 0.60 11 -4.93 3 5.53 5 (1)
7 Green Bay Packers 7 3 -0.59 2.79 7 -1.87 12 4.65 12 5
8 Denver Broncos 8 2 -0.50 -1.17 21 -4.75 4 3.57 9 1
9 Buffalo Bills 5 5 1.49 1.80 9 -1.73 13 3.52 8 (1)
10 Seattle Seahawks 5 5 -0.58 0.35 12 -3.09 6 3.43 11 1
11 New York Jets 5 5 -0.66 -0.78 18 -2.23 10 1.45 7 (4)
12 New York Giants 5 5 -0.79 3.13 6 2.42 25 0.71 14 2
13 Atlanta Falcons 6 4 -2.93 0.07 13 -0.18 16 0.25 15 2
14 Minnesota Vikings 7 3 -2.28 -2.67 26 -2.86 7 0.18 13 (1)
15 Philadelphia Eagles 4 6 -0.69 -1.01 20 -0.62 15 -0.39 10 (5)
16 Indianapolis Colts 5 5 1.37 -0.09 14 0.48 19 -0.58 18 2
17 Houston Texans 5 5 0.66 -1.80 24 -0.83 14 -0.97 23 6
18 Washington Redskins 4 6 0.98 -0.85 19 0.44 18 -1.29 16 (2)
19 Chicago Bears 4 6 0.75 -0.48 15 1.82 22 -2.30 21 2
20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5 5 -1.13 -0.51 16 2.10 24 -2.60 28 8
21 St. Louis Rams 4 6 -0.37 -5.39 30 -2.79 8 -2.60 19 (2)
22 Oakland Raiders 4 6 -0.68 1.13 10 3.82 29 -2.70 17 (5)
23 Dallas Cowboys 3 7 0.61 -5.09 29 -2.14 11 -2.95 25 2
24 Baltimore Ravens 3 7 -0.91 -0.53 17 2.56 26 -3.09 22 (2)
25 New Orleans Saints 4 6 0.20 2.19 8 5.87 32 -3.69 24 (1)
26 Jacksonville Jaguars 4 6 0.72 -1.68 23 2.72 27 -4.40 27 1
27 Miami Dolphins 4 6 0.38 -2.49 25 1.96 23 -4.45 20 (7)
28 San Diego Chargers 2 8 0.32 -1.43 22 5.00 31 -6.43 26 (2)
29 Detroit Lions 3 7 1.47 -3.43 27 3.22 28 -6.66 30 1
30 Tennessee Titans 2 8 -1.22 -7.05 31 0.12 17 -7.16 29 (1)
31 Cleveland Browns 2 8 0.47 -3.94 28 3.94 30 -7.88 31 -
32 San Francisco 49ers 3 7 1.99 -9.37 32 0.97 21 -10.34 32 -

Notable Rankings

  • Biggest Climb - Bucs, moving up 8 spots to #20
  • Deepest Fall – Dolphins, dropping 7 spots to #27
  • Highest Loser - Eagles at #15
  • Lowest Winner - Vikings at #14
  • Most Neutral – Vikings (#14) with a SCOAR of 0.18

Week 11 SCOAR predictions

I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).

A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.

Philadelphia Eagles 25 Carolina Panthers 26
Detroit Lions 20 Dallas Cowboys 16
Chicago Bears 18 New Orleans Saints 23
Green Bay Packers 29 Houston Texans 30
St. Louis Rams 11 Minnesota Vikings 18
Cincinnati Bengals 25 Atlanta Falcons 22
New York Giants 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23
Washington Redskins 26 Indianapolis Colts 26
Buffalo Bills 20 Oakland Raiders 23
Kansas City Chiefs 27 Tennessee Titans 22
San Diego Chargers 23 Miami Dolphins 17
Jacksonville Jaguars 28 New York Jets 26
Arizona Cardinals 32 Pittsburgh Steelers 19
San Francisco 49ers 15 Seattle Seahawks 20
New England Patriots 25 Baltimore Ravens 25
Denver Broncos 19 Cleveland Browns 23