System Addict: Week 12 NFL Wagering Guide

Oakland (-1) @ Tennessee

Oakland laid an egg for me last week in Detroit, and now they stay on the road to visit Tennessee. But let’s not forget what Tennessee is, a team with a rookie quarterback and an interim head coach who only knows how to throw to tight ends (They’d kill the Seahawks right now).

In this game, Oakland’s weakness in allowing the 30^th most passing yards per game happens to line up with Tennessee’s question mark on offense. But if Oakland was able to stymie Detroit’s passing game there is little chance for Marcus Mariota to light up the Raiders.

Tennessee has no home field advantage to speak of, going 0-5 SU in their last five games at home. And they are also boring to watch – the Titans have not put up more than 13 points in their last 4 home games. Pair that with the Raiders offensive performance on the road this year, where they have failed to put up at least 20 points just once - last week- and you have a recipe for disaster.

Betting System: Carr Problems

Buffalo @ Kansas City (-7)

After a tough schedule and rough 1-5 start to the season, the Kansas City Chiefs have reeled off four straight wins to get back to .500. They’ve also climbed up the DVOA ratings chart and find themselves 5^th in the NFL in weighted DVOA, just above the Seahawks. With the exception of the Bears, all of Kansas City’s losses have come to teams with 7 wins or more at this point in the season.

After this game with Buffalo, the Chiefs follow up with five games to teams with losing records, including two games with the above mentioned Oakland Raiders, the Flaccid Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, and San Diego at home. They already hold the 6^th seed for the playoffs, and it is unlikely that they give that seed up.

For the Bills, Tyrod Taylor avoided major injury in last week’s game against the Patriots and should be able to suit up for this game. However, defensive lineman Mario Williams and starting right guard John Miller will be out for this game. Being down any number of offensive lineman going into Arrowhead is a daunting task.

The Chiefs have won each of their last four games by at least 10 points, and that trend continues this week at home.

Betting System: BeWare of Backing the Bills

Arizona (-10.5) @ San Francisco

I was wary of backing the 49ers last week as a 14-point underdog at Seattle, but this is an entirely different animal. With Arizona ranked 4^th in DVOA and the 49ers ranked 32^nd, this mismatch is even greater than the one last week. I wrote about it earlier in the week here, and my mind is still made up to back Arizona up to 14 points or more.

And yet, the Cardinals haven’t won in San Francisco since 2008, which could be the reason why this line is less than two touchdowns even after the Cardinals beat the 49ers by 40 points in Week 3. But here’s the deal about that, Carson Palmer didn’t get to face the 49ers last year due to injuries. When the 49ers swept the season series against Palmer in 2013 we can all probably agree that the San Francisco defense was quite different than its current incarnation.

While Arizona probably has the NFC West in the bag, they have some stiff competition from Green Bay and Minnesota for the 2^nd seed in the NFC and that all-important bye week. They can’t afford a let down in any week going forward. Anyone suggesting a let down game after beating the Seahawks and Cincinnati in back-to-back weeks is crazy.

Betting System: Afternoon Delight

Betting odds and trends provided by sportsbookreview.com.

As always, do your due diligence and be aware that lines are made to get action at 50% on each side and are not a 50/50 proposition. Good luck!