:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/47955583/usa-today-8980189.0.jpg)
The Seahawks continued their winning streak in dominant fashion last week, propelling them further up the rankings. They have been steadily climbing toward the top of the chart after a rough beginning to the season and are now within striking distance of the top five. After the recent offensive outbursts, the team ranks 6th offensively, pairing well with the 4th ranked defense. Current SCOAR projections have Seattle finishing 10-6 and traveling to the Giants as the 5 seed. They will look to continue this hot streak while facing the 23rd ranked Ravens in Baltimore.
For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...
SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.
Looking Back
SCOAR had a middling performance in predictions last week, managing a 9-7 record straight up, but continuing to suggest last year was beginner’s luck picking against the spread where it limped to a 7-8-1 record. Being credited with a loss in the Jets/Giants game is frustrating, since SCOAR predicted a tie and the game went into overtime before the Jets’ field goal brought the score just over the 2.5 point spread. Also of note is the Jags/Titans matchup, where SCOAR and Vegas both had the Titans by 3, accurately predicting the outcome. However, the over/under was a little off the mark. The season records now stand at 120-72 (0.625) straight up and 84-89-19 (0.486) ATS.
| Game | Predicted | Actual | Game | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 26 | 27 | New York Jets | 25 | 23 | |
| Detroit Lions | 20 | 23 | New York Giants | 25 | 20 | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 27 | 27 | Atlanta Falcons | 24 | 19 | |
| St. Louis Rams | 17 | 3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 23 | 23 | |
| Carolina Panthers | 35 | 41 | Seattle Seahawks | 18 | 38 | |
| New Orleans Saints | 21 | 38 | Minnesota Vikings | 20 | 7 | |
| Houston Texans | 19 | 21 | Baltimore Ravens | 25 | 13 | |
| Buffalo Bills | 24 | 30 | Miami Dolphins | 24 | 15 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 30 | 37 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 20 | 39 | |
| Cleveland Browns | 15 | 3 | Tennessee Titans | 23 | 42 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 13 | 26 | Denver Broncos | 26 | 17 | |
| Chicago Bears | 24 | 20 | San Diego Chargers | 19 | 3 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 28 | 34 | Philadelphia Eagles | 16 | 35 | |
| Oakland Raiders | 23 | 20 | New England Patriots | 34 | 28 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 19 | 10 | Dallas Cowboys | 17 | 19 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 26 | 45 | Washington Redskins | 23 | 16 |
Highs & Lows
- Week 13 Best Single Game SCOAR – Arizona Cardinals: 59.87
- Week 13 Worst Single Game SCOAR – Cleveland Browns: -55.75
- Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Seattle Seahawks: 76.37 (week 3)
- Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: -73.09 (week 3)
On to the Numbers!
We have a new leader! After spending seemingly the entire season at the top of the chart, the Patriots (9.26) dropped into 2nd this week after their loss to the Eagles. The Bengals (11.80) took advantage of New England’s stumble and rose to the top spot after a blowout victory over the Browns. The Cardinals moved up into third, posting a SCOAR of 8.54. The top five is rounded out by the Chiefs at 8.03 and the undefeated Panthers at 7.57. The Seahawks follow closely behind Carolina, coming in just shy of the top five with a rating of 7.32.
| Team | W | L | SOS | O-SCOAR | O Rank | D-SCOAR | D Rank | SCOAR | Last Week | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cincinnati Bengals | 10 | 2 | -0.01 | 4.04 | 5 | -7.76 | 1 | 11.80 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | New England Patriots | 10 | 2 | -0.11 | 6.74 | 2 | -2.52 | 7 | 9.26 | 1 | (1) |
| 3 | Arizona Cardinals | 10 | 2 | -1.77 | 7.02 | 1 | -1.52 | 14 | 8.54 | 5 | 2 |
| 4 | Kansas City Chiefs | 7 | 5 | 1.81 | 4.94 | 4 | -3.09 | 5 | 8.03 | 4 | - |
| 5 | Carolina Panthers | 12 | 0 | -1.95 | 5.06 | 3 | -2.52 | 8 | 7.57 | 3 | (2) |
| 6 | Seattle Seahawks | 7 | 5 | 0.63 | 3.81 | 6 | -3.51 | 4 | 7.32 | 8 | 2 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 5 | 0.84 | 3.02 | 7 | -3.58 | 3 | 6.60 | 7 | - |
| 8 | Denver Broncos | 10 | 2 | 0.09 | -1.08 | 19 | -6.42 | 2 | 5.33 | 6 | (2) |
| 9 | Green Bay Packers | 8 | 4 | -0.13 | 1.59 | 11 | -2.10 | 12 | 3.69 | 9 | - |
| 10 | Buffalo Bills | 6 | 6 | 1.28 | 1.85 | 9 | -1.22 | 15 | 3.07 | 10 | - |
| 11 | New York Jets | 7 | 5 | -1.75 | -0.25 | 13 | -2.24 | 10 | 1.99 | 12 | 1 |
| 12 | Houston Texans | 6 | 6 | 0.38 | -2.49 | 25 | -2.22 | 11 | -0.28 | 13 | 1 |
| 13 | New York Giants | 5 | 7 | -1.44 | 1.66 | 10 | 2.19 | 25 | -0.53 | 16 | 3 |
| 14 | Minnesota Vikings | 8 | 4 | -0.48 | -3.19 | 26 | -2.61 | 6 | -0.58 | 11 | (3) |
| 15 | Atlanta Falcons | 6 | 6 | -3.13 | -1.20 | 20 | 0.05 | 18 | -1.25 | 15 | - |
| 16 | Philadelphia Eagles | 5 | 7 | -0.75 | -0.60 | 15 | 1.50 | 20 | -2.10 | 24 | 8 |
| 17 | Oakland Raiders | 5 | 7 | 0.29 | 1.25 | 12 | 3.39 | 28 | -2.15 | 19 | 2 |
| 18 | Indianapolis Colts | 6 | 6 | 1.08 | -1.41 | 21 | 0.76 | 19 | -2.17 | 14 | (4) |
| 19 | Washington Redskins | 5 | 7 | -0.61 | -2.26 | 24 | -0.02 | 17 | -2.24 | 18 | (1) |
| 20 | Chicago Bears | 5 | 7 | 1.03 | -0.81 | 17 | 1.62 | 23 | -2.42 | 17 | (3) |
| 21 | Detroit Lions | 4 | 8 | 1.91 | -0.35 | 14 | 2.52 | 27 | -2.86 | 20 | (1) |
| 22 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6 | 6 | -1.86 | -1.73 | 22 | 1.66 | 24 | -3.39 | 22 | - |
| 23 | Baltimore Ravens | 4 | 8 | -1.32 | -0.95 | 18 | 2.45 | 26 | -3.39 | 21 | (2) |
| 24 | Dallas Cowboys | 4 | 8 | 0.23 | -5.77 | 30 | -1.64 | 13 | -4.13 | 25 | 1 |
| 25 | New Orleans Saints | 4 | 8 | 0.08 | 1.94 | 8 | 6.12 | 32 | -4.18 | 28 | 3 |
| 26 | St. Louis Rams | 4 | 8 | 1.79 | -7.25 | 31 | -2.35 | 9 | -4.89 | 23 | (3) |
| 27 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 4 | 8 | -0.97 | -0.62 | 16 | 4.48 | 31 | -5.10 | 26 | (1) |
| 28 | Miami Dolphins | 5 | 7 | -0.38 | -3.53 | 27 | 1.59 | 22 | -5.12 | 29 | 1 |
| 29 | San Diego Chargers | 3 | 9 | 0.87 | -2.15 | 23 | 3.69 | 29 | -5.84 | 27 | (2) |
| 30 | Tennessee Titans | 3 | 9 | -2.22 | -5.10 | 29 | 1.57 | 21 | -6.67 | 30 | - |
| 31 | San Francisco 49ers | 4 | 8 | 2.41 | -8.01 | 32 | -0.12 | 16 | -7.89 | 32 | 1 |
| 32 | Cleveland Browns | 2 | 10 | 1.64 | -4.09 | 28 | 4.46 | 30 | -8.54 | 31 | (1) |
Notable Rankings
- Biggest Climb - Eagles, moving up 8 spots to #16
- Deepest Fall – Colts, dropping 4 spots to #18
- Highest Loser - Giants at #13
- Lowest Winner - Vikings at #14
- Most Neutral – Texans (#12) with a SCOAR of -0.28
Week 14 SCOAR predictions
I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).
A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.
| Minnesota Vikings | 16 | Buffalo Bills | 25 | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 29 | Philadelphia Eagles | 24 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 19 | Detroit Lions | 18 | |
| Cleveland Browns | 21 | St. Louis Rams | 20 | |
| New Orleans Saints | 25 | Tennessee Titans | 15 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 31 | New York Jets | 27 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 17 | New England Patriots | 27 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 26 | Houston Texans | 20 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 25 | San Diego Chargers | 16 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 26 | Kansas City Chiefs | 33 | |
| Washington Redskins | 21 | Atlanta Falcons | 18 | |
| Chicago Bears | 23 | Carolina Panthers | 30 | |
| Oakland Raiders | 16 | Dallas Cowboys | 14 | |
| Denver Broncos | 27 | Green Bay Packers | 25 | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 26 | New York Giants | 25 | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 20 | Miami Dolphins | 23 |