clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

SCOAR: Week 14 Rankings & Predictions

New, comments

Patriots are unseated at the top, Seattle climbs to sixth.

Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

The Seahawks continued their winning streak in dominant fashion last week, propelling them further up the rankings. They have been steadily climbing toward the top of the chart after a rough beginning to the season and are now within striking distance of the top five. After the recent offensive outbursts, the team ranks 6th offensively, pairing well with the 4th ranked defense. Current SCOAR projections have Seattle finishing 10-6 and traveling to the Giants as the 5 seed. They will look to continue this hot streak while facing the 23rd ranked Ravens in Baltimore.

For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...

SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.

Looking Back

SCOAR had a middling performance in predictions last week, managing a 9-7 record straight up, but continuing to suggest last year was beginner’s luck picking against the spread where it limped to a 7-8-1 record. Being credited with a loss in the Jets/Giants game is frustrating, since SCOAR predicted a tie and the game went into overtime before the Jets’ field goal brought the score just over the 2.5 point spread. Also of note is the Jags/Titans matchup, where SCOAR and Vegas both had the Titans by 3, accurately predicting the outcome. However, the over/under was a little off the mark. The season records now stand at 120-72 (0.625) straight up and 84-89-19 (0.486) ATS.

Game Predicted Actual Game Predicted Actual
Green Bay Packers 26 27 New York Jets 25 23
Detroit Lions 20 23 New York Giants 25 20
Arizona Cardinals 27 27 Atlanta Falcons 24 19
St. Louis Rams 17 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 23
Carolina Panthers 35 41 Seattle Seahawks 18 38
New Orleans Saints 21 38 Minnesota Vikings 20 7
Houston Texans 19 21 Baltimore Ravens 25 13
Buffalo Bills 24 30 Miami Dolphins 24 15
Cincinnati Bengals 30 37 Jacksonville Jaguars 20 39
Cleveland Browns 15 3 Tennessee Titans 23 42
San Francisco 49ers 13 26 Denver Broncos 26 17
Chicago Bears 24 20 San Diego Chargers 19 3
Kansas City Chiefs 28 34 Philadelphia Eagles 16 35
Oakland Raiders 23 20 New England Patriots 34 28
Indianapolis Colts 19 10 Dallas Cowboys 17 19
Pittsburgh Steelers 26 45 Washington Redskins 23 16

Highs & Lows

  • Week 13 Best Single Game SCOAR – Arizona Cardinals: 59.87
  • Week 13 Worst Single Game SCOAR – Cleveland Browns: -55.75
  • Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Seattle Seahawks: 76.37 (week 3)
  • Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: -73.09 (week 3)

On to the Numbers!

We have a new leader! After spending seemingly the entire season at the top of the chart, the Patriots (9.26) dropped into 2nd this week after their loss to the Eagles. The Bengals (11.80) took advantage of New England’s stumble and rose to the top spot after a blowout victory over the Browns. The Cardinals moved up into third, posting a SCOAR of 8.54. The top five is rounded out by the Chiefs at 8.03 and the undefeated Panthers at 7.57. The Seahawks follow closely behind Carolina, coming in just shy of the top five with a rating of 7.32.

Team W L SOS O-SCOAR O Rank D-SCOAR D Rank SCOAR Last Week Change
1 Cincinnati Bengals 10 2 -0.01 4.04 5 -7.76 1 11.80 2 1
2 New England Patriots 10 2 -0.11 6.74 2 -2.52 7 9.26 1 (1)
3 Arizona Cardinals 10 2 -1.77 7.02 1 -1.52 14 8.54 5 2
4 Kansas City Chiefs 7 5 1.81 4.94 4 -3.09 5 8.03 4 -
5 Carolina Panthers 12 0 -1.95 5.06 3 -2.52 8 7.57 3 (2)
6 Seattle Seahawks 7 5 0.63 3.81 6 -3.51 4 7.32 8 2
7 Pittsburgh Steelers 7 5 0.84 3.02 7 -3.58 3 6.60 7 -
8 Denver Broncos 10 2 0.09 -1.08 19 -6.42 2 5.33 6 (2)
9 Green Bay Packers 8 4 -0.13 1.59 11 -2.10 12 3.69 9 -
10 Buffalo Bills 6 6 1.28 1.85 9 -1.22 15 3.07 10 -
11 New York Jets 7 5 -1.75 -0.25 13 -2.24 10 1.99 12 1
12 Houston Texans 6 6 0.38 -2.49 25 -2.22 11 -0.28 13 1
13 New York Giants 5 7 -1.44 1.66 10 2.19 25 -0.53 16 3
14 Minnesota Vikings 8 4 -0.48 -3.19 26 -2.61 6 -0.58 11 (3)
15 Atlanta Falcons 6 6 -3.13 -1.20 20 0.05 18 -1.25 15 -
16 Philadelphia Eagles 5 7 -0.75 -0.60 15 1.50 20 -2.10 24 8
17 Oakland Raiders 5 7 0.29 1.25 12 3.39 28 -2.15 19 2
18 Indianapolis Colts 6 6 1.08 -1.41 21 0.76 19 -2.17 14 (4)
19 Washington Redskins 5 7 -0.61 -2.26 24 -0.02 17 -2.24 18 (1)
20 Chicago Bears 5 7 1.03 -0.81 17 1.62 23 -2.42 17 (3)
21 Detroit Lions 4 8 1.91 -0.35 14 2.52 27 -2.86 20 (1)
22 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 6 -1.86 -1.73 22 1.66 24 -3.39 22 -
23 Baltimore Ravens 4 8 -1.32 -0.95 18 2.45 26 -3.39 21 (2)
24 Dallas Cowboys 4 8 0.23 -5.77 30 -1.64 13 -4.13 25 1
25 New Orleans Saints 4 8 0.08 1.94 8 6.12 32 -4.18 28 3
26 St. Louis Rams 4 8 1.79 -7.25 31 -2.35 9 -4.89 23 (3)
27 Jacksonville Jaguars 4 8 -0.97 -0.62 16 4.48 31 -5.10 26 (1)
28 Miami Dolphins 5 7 -0.38 -3.53 27 1.59 22 -5.12 29 1
29 San Diego Chargers 3 9 0.87 -2.15 23 3.69 29 -5.84 27 (2)
30 Tennessee Titans 3 9 -2.22 -5.10 29 1.57 21 -6.67 30 -
31 San Francisco 49ers 4 8 2.41 -8.01 32 -0.12 16 -7.89 32 1
32 Cleveland Browns 2 10 1.64 -4.09 28 4.46 30 -8.54 31 (1)

Notable Rankings

  • Biggest Climb - Eagles, moving up 8 spots to #16
  • Deepest Fall – Colts, dropping 4 spots to #18
  • Highest Loser - Giants at #13
  • Lowest Winner - Vikings at #14
  • Most Neutral – Texans (#12) with a SCOAR of -0.28

Week 14 SCOAR predictions

I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).

A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.

Minnesota Vikings 16 Buffalo Bills 25
Arizona Cardinals 29 Philadelphia Eagles 24
San Francisco 49ers 19 Detroit Lions 18
Cleveland Browns 21 St. Louis Rams 20
New Orleans Saints 25 Tennessee Titans 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 New York Jets 27
Pittsburgh Steelers 17 New England Patriots 27
Cincinnati Bengals 26 Houston Texans 20
Indianapolis Colts 25 San Diego Chargers 16
Jacksonville Jaguars 26 Kansas City Chiefs 33
Washington Redskins 21 Atlanta Falcons 18
Chicago Bears 23 Carolina Panthers 30
Oakland Raiders 16 Dallas Cowboys 14
Denver Broncos 27 Green Bay Packers 25
Seattle Seahawks 26 New York Giants 25
Baltimore Ravens 20 Miami Dolphins 23