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SCOAR: Week 15 Rankings & Predictions

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The Seahawks are back in the top five!

Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Another week, another dominating performance and step up the leaderboard for the Seahawks. They are now firmly in the top five, coming in at fourth after passing the Chiefs and the Cardinals. Seattle now ranks fifth offensively and third defensively. They’re still predicted to finish 10-6 and take the fifth seed, facing off against the Eagles. The Seahawks will look to continue their winning streak hosting the 31st ranked Browns.

For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...

SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.

Looking Back

SCOAR did well with predictions in week 14, coming up with an 11-5 record straight up and posting a 10-6 record against the spread. This brings the season total to 131-77 (0.630) straight up and brings the record against the spread almost even at 94-95-19 (0.497). Maybe the record will continue to rebound the remainder of the season and end up with a respectable record.

Game Predicted Actual Game Predicted Actual
Minnesota Vikings 16 20 Buffalo Bills 25 20
Arizona Cardinals 29 23 Philadelphia Eagles 24 23
San Francisco 49ers 19 10 Detroit Lions 18 14
Cleveland Browns 21 24 St. Louis Rams 20 21
New Orleans Saints 25 24 Tennessee Titans 15 8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 17 New York Jets 27 30
Pittsburgh Steelers 17 33 New England Patriots 27 27
Cincinnati Bengals 26 20 Houston Texans 20 6
Indianapolis Colts 25 16 San Diego Chargers 16 3
Jacksonville Jaguars 26 51 Kansas City Chiefs 33 10
Washington Redskins 21 24 Atlanta Falcons 18 0
Chicago Bears 23 21 Carolina Panthers 30 38
Oakland Raiders 16 15 Dallas Cowboys 14 7
Denver Broncos 27 12 Green Bay Packers 25 28
Seattle Seahawks 26 35 New York Giants 25 31
Baltimore Ravens 20 6 Miami Dolphins 23 24

Highs & Lows

  • Week 14 Best Single Game SCOAR – Carolina Panthers: 90.69
  • Week 14 Worst Single Game SCOAR – Atlanta Falcons: -79.96
  • Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Carolina Panthers: 90.69 (week 14)
  • Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Atlanta Falcons: -79.96 (week 14)

On to the Numbers!

Not much change at the top of the rankings this week, as the Bengals remain in first place with a rating of 10.21, although their reign may be short with Dalton out for the foreseeable future. The Patriots are still in 2nd at 10.12. Moving up into third this week are the Panthers, with a SCOAR of 9.92. In fourth place we have the lone newcomer to the top five, with the Seahawks moving up to a rating of 8.77. Rounding out the top five are the Cardinals at 8.29.

Team W L SOS O-SCOAR O Rank D-SCOAR D Rank SCOAR Last Week Change
1 Cincinnati Bengals 10 3 0.67 4.30 4 -5.92 2 10.21 1 -
2 New England Patriots 11 2 -0.19 6.49 2 -3.63 6 10.12 2 -
3 Carolina Panthers 13 0 -2.07 5.73 3 -4.18 4 9.92 5 2
4 Seattle Seahawks 8 5 0.26 4.27 5 -4.50 3 8.77 6 2
5 Arizona Cardinals 11 2 -1.73 6.97 1 -1.33 13 8.29 3 (2)
6 Pittsburgh Steelers 8 5 1.34 4.18 6 -3.43 7 7.61 7 1
7 Kansas City Chiefs 8 5 1.13 3.61 7 -3.91 5 7.52 4 (3)
8 Green Bay Packers 9 4 -0.33 2.31 8 -2.65 9 4.96 9 1
9 Denver Broncos 10 3 -0.09 -1.58 19 -6.10 1 4.52 8 (1)
10 New York Jets 8 5 -2.12 0.25 14 -3.13 8 3.38 11 1
11 Buffalo Bills 6 7 1.00 1.37 11 -1.03 15 2.40 10 (1)
12 Minnesota Vikings 8 5 0.06 -2.40 22 -2.54 11 0.14 14 2
13 New York Giants 6 7 -1.97 2.06 9 2.63 26 -0.57 13 -
14 Houston Texans 6 7 0.90 -3.40 27 -2.10 12 -1.30 12 (2)
15 Philadelphia Eagles 6 7 -0.52 -0.34 15 1.30 19 -1.65 16 1
16 Oakland Raiders 6 7 0.54 1.21 12 2.90 28 -1.69 17 1
17 Washington Redskins 6 7 -0.60 -1.78 20 0.07 16 -1.85 19 2
18 Chicago Bears 5 8 1.02 -0.34 16 1.96 22 -2.31 20 2
19 Jacksonville Jaguars 5 8 -1.40 1.21 13 4.27 30 -3.06 27 8
20 Detroit Lions 4 9 1.84 -0.34 17 2.95 29 -3.29 21 1
21 Atlanta Falcons 6 7 -2.63 -2.70 23 0.87 18 -3.56 15 (6)
22 New Orleans Saints 5 8 -0.49 1.67 10 5.71 32 -4.04 25 3
23 St. Louis Rams 5 8 1.46 -6.83 31 -2.60 10 -4.23 26 3
24 Baltimore Ravens 4 9 -0.45 -1.44 18 2.86 27 -4.30 23 (1)
25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 7 -2.34 -2.70 24 1.74 21 -4.43 22 (3)
26 Indianapolis Colts 6 7 0.86 -1.90 21 2.58 25 -4.48 18 (8)
27 Dallas Cowboys 4 9 0.80 -6.15 30 -1.23 14 -4.91 24 (3)
28 Miami Dolphins 5 8 -0.25 -3.04 25 1.96 23 -5.00 28 -
29 San Diego Chargers 3 10 1.51 -3.06 26 2.47 24 -5.53 29 -
30 Tennessee Titans 3 10 -1.78 -5.53 29 1.71 20 -7.24 30 -
31 Cleveland Browns 3 10 0.59 -3.75 28 4.46 31 -8.20 32 1
32 San Francisco 49ers 4 9 1.82 -8.96 32 0.39 17 -9.35 31 (1)

Notable Rankings

  • Biggest Climb - Jaguars, moving up 8 spots to #19
  • Deepest Fall – Colts, dropping 8 spots to #26
  • Highest Loser - Bills at #11
  • Lowest Winner - Vikings at #12
  • Most Neutral – Vikings (#12) with a SCOAR of 0.14

Week 15 SCOAR predictions

I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).

A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 New York Jets 22
St. Louis Rams 19 Dallas Cowboys 16
Chicago Bears 17 Atlanta Falcons 24
Minnesota Vikings 23 Jacksonville Jaguars 26
Houston Texans 22 Arizona Cardinals 31
Indianapolis Colts 21 Philadelphia Eagles 22
Carolina Panthers 31 Tennessee Titans 13
New York Giants 23 New England Patriots 34
Buffalo Bills 23 Kansas City Chiefs 27
Washington Redskins 22 Baltimore Ravens 19
Cleveland Browns 13 Green Bay Packers 26
Seattle Seahawks 33 Oakland Raiders 22
Denver Broncos 17 Miami Dolphins 21
Pittsburgh Steelers 22 San Diego Chargers 23
Cincinnati Bengals 27 Detroit Lions 27
San Francisco 49ers 10 New Orleans Saints 29