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Another week, another dominating performance and step up the leaderboard for the Seahawks. They are now firmly in the top five, coming in at fourth after passing the Chiefs and the Cardinals. Seattle now ranks fifth offensively and third defensively. They’re still predicted to finish 10-6 and take the fifth seed, facing off against the Eagles. The Seahawks will look to continue their winning streak hosting the 31st ranked Browns.
For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...
SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.
Looking Back
SCOAR did well with predictions in week 14, coming up with an 11-5 record straight up and posting a 10-6 record against the spread. This brings the season total to 131-77 (0.630) straight up and brings the record against the spread almost even at 94-95-19 (0.497). Maybe the record will continue to rebound the remainder of the season and end up with a respectable record.
| Game | Predicted | Actual | Game | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 16 | 20 | Buffalo Bills | 25 | 20 | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 29 | 23 | Philadelphia Eagles | 24 | 23 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 19 | 10 | Detroit Lions | 18 | 14 | |
| Cleveland Browns | 21 | 24 | St. Louis Rams | 20 | 21 | |
| New Orleans Saints | 25 | 24 | Tennessee Titans | 15 | 8 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 31 | 17 | New York Jets | 27 | 30 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 17 | 33 | New England Patriots | 27 | 27 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 26 | 20 | Houston Texans | 20 | 6 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 25 | 16 | San Diego Chargers | 16 | 3 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 26 | 51 | Kansas City Chiefs | 33 | 10 | |
| Washington Redskins | 21 | 24 | Atlanta Falcons | 18 | 0 | |
| Chicago Bears | 23 | 21 | Carolina Panthers | 30 | 38 | |
| Oakland Raiders | 16 | 15 | Dallas Cowboys | 14 | 7 | |
| Denver Broncos | 27 | 12 | Green Bay Packers | 25 | 28 | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 26 | 35 | New York Giants | 25 | 31 | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 20 | 6 | Miami Dolphins | 23 | 24 |
Highs & Lows
- Week 14 Best Single Game SCOAR – Carolina Panthers: 90.69
- Week 14 Worst Single Game SCOAR – Atlanta Falcons: -79.96
- Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Carolina Panthers: 90.69 (week 14)
- Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Atlanta Falcons: -79.96 (week 14)
On to the Numbers!
Not much change at the top of the rankings this week, as the Bengals remain in first place with a rating of 10.21, although their reign may be short with Dalton out for the foreseeable future. The Patriots are still in 2nd at 10.12. Moving up into third this week are the Panthers, with a SCOAR of 9.92. In fourth place we have the lone newcomer to the top five, with the Seahawks moving up to a rating of 8.77. Rounding out the top five are the Cardinals at 8.29.
| Team | W | L | SOS | O-SCOAR | O Rank | D-SCOAR | D Rank | SCOAR | Last Week | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cincinnati Bengals | 10 | 3 | 0.67 | 4.30 | 4 | -5.92 | 2 | 10.21 | 1 | - |
| 2 | New England Patriots | 11 | 2 | -0.19 | 6.49 | 2 | -3.63 | 6 | 10.12 | 2 | - |
| 3 | Carolina Panthers | 13 | 0 | -2.07 | 5.73 | 3 | -4.18 | 4 | 9.92 | 5 | 2 |
| 4 | Seattle Seahawks | 8 | 5 | 0.26 | 4.27 | 5 | -4.50 | 3 | 8.77 | 6 | 2 |
| 5 | Arizona Cardinals | 11 | 2 | -1.73 | 6.97 | 1 | -1.33 | 13 | 8.29 | 3 | (2) |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 8 | 5 | 1.34 | 4.18 | 6 | -3.43 | 7 | 7.61 | 7 | 1 |
| 7 | Kansas City Chiefs | 8 | 5 | 1.13 | 3.61 | 7 | -3.91 | 5 | 7.52 | 4 | (3) |
| 8 | Green Bay Packers | 9 | 4 | -0.33 | 2.31 | 8 | -2.65 | 9 | 4.96 | 9 | 1 |
| 9 | Denver Broncos | 10 | 3 | -0.09 | -1.58 | 19 | -6.10 | 1 | 4.52 | 8 | (1) |
| 10 | New York Jets | 8 | 5 | -2.12 | 0.25 | 14 | -3.13 | 8 | 3.38 | 11 | 1 |
| 11 | Buffalo Bills | 6 | 7 | 1.00 | 1.37 | 11 | -1.03 | 15 | 2.40 | 10 | (1) |
| 12 | Minnesota Vikings | 8 | 5 | 0.06 | -2.40 | 22 | -2.54 | 11 | 0.14 | 14 | 2 |
| 13 | New York Giants | 6 | 7 | -1.97 | 2.06 | 9 | 2.63 | 26 | -0.57 | 13 | - |
| 14 | Houston Texans | 6 | 7 | 0.90 | -3.40 | 27 | -2.10 | 12 | -1.30 | 12 | (2) |
| 15 | Philadelphia Eagles | 6 | 7 | -0.52 | -0.34 | 15 | 1.30 | 19 | -1.65 | 16 | 1 |
| 16 | Oakland Raiders | 6 | 7 | 0.54 | 1.21 | 12 | 2.90 | 28 | -1.69 | 17 | 1 |
| 17 | Washington Redskins | 6 | 7 | -0.60 | -1.78 | 20 | 0.07 | 16 | -1.85 | 19 | 2 |
| 18 | Chicago Bears | 5 | 8 | 1.02 | -0.34 | 16 | 1.96 | 22 | -2.31 | 20 | 2 |
| 19 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 | 8 | -1.40 | 1.21 | 13 | 4.27 | 30 | -3.06 | 27 | 8 |
| 20 | Detroit Lions | 4 | 9 | 1.84 | -0.34 | 17 | 2.95 | 29 | -3.29 | 21 | 1 |
| 21 | Atlanta Falcons | 6 | 7 | -2.63 | -2.70 | 23 | 0.87 | 18 | -3.56 | 15 | (6) |
| 22 | New Orleans Saints | 5 | 8 | -0.49 | 1.67 | 10 | 5.71 | 32 | -4.04 | 25 | 3 |
| 23 | St. Louis Rams | 5 | 8 | 1.46 | -6.83 | 31 | -2.60 | 10 | -4.23 | 26 | 3 |
| 24 | Baltimore Ravens | 4 | 9 | -0.45 | -1.44 | 18 | 2.86 | 27 | -4.30 | 23 | (1) |
| 25 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6 | 7 | -2.34 | -2.70 | 24 | 1.74 | 21 | -4.43 | 22 | (3) |
| 26 | Indianapolis Colts | 6 | 7 | 0.86 | -1.90 | 21 | 2.58 | 25 | -4.48 | 18 | (8) |
| 27 | Dallas Cowboys | 4 | 9 | 0.80 | -6.15 | 30 | -1.23 | 14 | -4.91 | 24 | (3) |
| 28 | Miami Dolphins | 5 | 8 | -0.25 | -3.04 | 25 | 1.96 | 23 | -5.00 | 28 | - |
| 29 | San Diego Chargers | 3 | 10 | 1.51 | -3.06 | 26 | 2.47 | 24 | -5.53 | 29 | - |
| 30 | Tennessee Titans | 3 | 10 | -1.78 | -5.53 | 29 | 1.71 | 20 | -7.24 | 30 | - |
| 31 | Cleveland Browns | 3 | 10 | 0.59 | -3.75 | 28 | 4.46 | 31 | -8.20 | 32 | 1 |
| 32 | San Francisco 49ers | 4 | 9 | 1.82 | -8.96 | 32 | 0.39 | 17 | -9.35 | 31 | (1) |
Notable Rankings
- Biggest Climb - Jaguars, moving up 8 spots to #19
- Deepest Fall – Colts, dropping 8 spots to #26
- Highest Loser - Bills at #11
- Lowest Winner - Vikings at #12
- Most Neutral – Vikings (#12) with a SCOAR of 0.14
Week 15 SCOAR predictions
I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).
A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 17 | New York Jets | 22 | |
| St. Louis Rams | 19 | Dallas Cowboys | 16 | |
| Chicago Bears | 17 | Atlanta Falcons | 24 | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 23 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 26 | |
| Houston Texans | 22 | Arizona Cardinals | 31 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 21 | Philadelphia Eagles | 22 | |
| Carolina Panthers | 31 | Tennessee Titans | 13 | |
| New York Giants | 23 | New England Patriots | 34 | |
| Buffalo Bills | 23 | Kansas City Chiefs | 27 | |
| Washington Redskins | 22 | Baltimore Ravens | 19 | |
| Cleveland Browns | 13 | Green Bay Packers | 26 | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 33 | Oakland Raiders | 22 | |
| Denver Broncos | 17 | Miami Dolphins | 21 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 22 | San Diego Chargers | 23 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 27 | Detroit Lions | 27 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10 | New Orleans Saints | 29 |