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The Seahawks had another convincing win, although SCOAR was not as impressed as it had been in the preceding weeks. The offense now ranks 6th, falling one spot as the Bengals just barely squeaked past while the defense is now ranked third. SCOAR still has the Seahawks finishing the season at 10-6, getting the fifth seed, and traveling to the Redskins. The Seahawks will face the 20th ranked Rams in week 16.
For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...
SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.
Looking Back
SCOAR had a great week with predictions in week 15. In straight up picks it had an impressive 13-3 record. Even more notable was the against the spread performance, managing a 12-1-3 record. The Panthers/Giants game was the only miss. This brings the season totals to 144-80 (0.643) straight up and 106-96-22 (0.525) ATS. This means, if you were stupidly using these predictions to make bets, you wouldn’t be losing money anymore! After how it started the season, I’ll take it.
| Game | Predicted | Actual | Game | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 17 | 23 | New York Jets | 22 | 19 | |
| St. Louis Rams | 19 | 31 | Dallas Cowboys | 16 | 16 | |
| Chicago Bears | 17 | 17 | Atlanta Falcons | 24 | 23 | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 23 | 38 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 26 | 17 | |
| Houston Texans | 22 | 16 | Arizona Cardinals | 31 | 40 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 21 | 10 | Philadelphia Eagles | 22 | 17 | |
| Carolina Panthers | 31 | 38 | Tennessee Titans | 13 | 16 | |
| New York Giants | 23 | 35 | New England Patriots | 34 | 33 | |
| Buffalo Bills | 23 | 25 | Kansas City Chiefs | 27 | 34 | |
| Washington Redskins | 22 | 35 | Baltimore Ravens | 19 | 14 | |
| Cleveland Browns | 13 | 13 | Green Bay Packers | 26 | 30 | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 33 | 30 | Oakland Raiders | 22 | 20 | |
| Denver Broncos | 17 | 27 | Miami Dolphins | 21 | 14 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 22 | 34 | San Diego Chargers | 23 | 30 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 27 | 24 | Detroit Lions | 27 | 35 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10 | 14 | New Orleans Saints | 29 | 27 |
Highs & Lows
- Week 15 Best Single Game SCOAR – Arizona Cardinals: 24.42
- Week 15 Worst Single Game SCOAR – Miami Dolphins: -22.69
- Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Carolina Panthers: 92.00 (week 14)
- Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Atlanta Falcons: -81.73 (week 14)
On to the Numbers!
No newcomers to the top five this week, although there was a little shakeup in the ordering. The Patriots regained the top spot, barely pulling ahead of the Bengals to come in at 9.91. The Bengals are close on their heels at 9.82. In third remain the Panthers with a rating of 9.15. The Cardinals follow closely at 9.13. Rounding out the top five are the Seahawks, with a SCOAR of 8.94. The top teams are all very closely rated; there is no clear cut team above the rest.
| Team | W | L | SOS | O-SCOAR | O Rank | D-SCOAR | D Rank | SCOAR | Last Week | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England Patriots | 12 | 2 | -1.04 | 6.25 | 2 | -3.66 | 5 | 9.91 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | Cincinnati Bengals | 11 | 3 | 0.17 | 3.95 | 5 | -5.86 | 1 | 9.82 | 1 | (1) |
| 3 | Carolina Panthers | 14 | 0 | -2.05 | 6.05 | 3 | -3.10 | 8 | 9.15 | 3 | - |
| 4 | Arizona Cardinals | 12 | 2 | -1.48 | 7.10 | 1 | -2.02 | 13 | 9.13 | 5 | 1 |
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks | 9 | 5 | -0.06 | 3.91 | 6 | -5.04 | 3 | 8.94 | 4 | (1) |
| 6 | Kansas City Chiefs | 9 | 5 | 0.87 | 3.70 | 7 | -4.60 | 4 | 8.30 | 7 | 1 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 9 | 5 | 1.68 | 5.08 | 4 | -2.87 | 10 | 7.95 | 6 | (1) |
| 8 | Green Bay Packers | 10 | 4 | -0.11 | 2.25 | 9 | -3.17 | 6 | 5.43 | 8 | - |
| 9 | Denver Broncos | 10 | 4 | 0.70 | -0.99 | 18 | -5.08 | 2 | 4.09 | 9 | - |
| 10 | New York Jets | 9 | 5 | -2.68 | -0.21 | 15 | -2.94 | 9 | 2.74 | 10 | - |
| 11 | Minnesota Vikings | 9 | 5 | 0.26 | -1.26 | 20 | -3.13 | 7 | 1.86 | 12 | 1 |
| 12 | Buffalo Bills | 6 | 8 | 0.50 | 1.38 | 10 | 0.07 | 17 | 1.31 | 11 | (1) |
| 13 | New York Giants | 6 | 8 | -1.36 | 2.78 | 8 | 2.71 | 27 | 0.07 | 13 | - |
| 14 | Washington Redskins | 7 | 7 | -0.65 | -1.20 | 19 | 0.00 | 16 | -1.20 | 17 | 3 |
| 15 | Houston Texans | 7 | 7 | 0.06 | -4.07 | 27 | -2.69 | 11 | -1.38 | 14 | (1) |
| 16 | Oakland Raiders | 6 | 8 | 0.98 | 0.97 | 12 | 2.83 | 28 | -1.86 | 16 | - |
| 17 | Philadelphia Eagles | 6 | 8 | -0.02 | -0.67 | 17 | 1.54 | 19 | -2.21 | 15 | (2) |
| 18 | Detroit Lions | 5 | 9 | 1.84 | -0.11 | 14 | 2.44 | 23 | -2.55 | 20 | 2 |
| 19 | Chicago Bears | 5 | 9 | 1.65 | -0.53 | 16 | 2.44 | 24 | -2.97 | 18 | (1) |
| 20 | St. Louis Rams | 6 | 8 | 1.32 | -5.79 | 30 | -2.67 | 12 | -3.13 | 23 | 3 |
| 21 | Atlanta Falcons | 7 | 7 | -2.71 | -2.99 | 25 | 0.14 | 18 | -3.13 | 21 | - |
| 22 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 | 9 | -1.94 | 0.74 | 13 | 4.28 | 30 | -3.54 | 19 | (3) |
| 23 | San Diego Chargers | 4 | 10 | 1.08 | -2.64 | 23 | 1.77 | 20 | -4.41 | 29 | 6 |
| 24 | New Orleans Saints | 5 | 9 | -0.74 | 1.38 | 11 | 6.05 | 32 | -4.67 | 22 | (2) |
| 25 | Dallas Cowboys | 4 | 10 | 0.81 | -6.46 | 31 | -1.70 | 14 | -4.76 | 27 | 2 |
| 26 | Baltimore Ravens | 4 | 10 | 0.23 | -1.77 | 21 | 3.06 | 29 | -4.83 | 24 | (2) |
| 27 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6 | 8 | -2.51 | -2.46 | 22 | 2.58 | 25 | -5.04 | 25 | (2) |
| 28 | Indianapolis Colts | 6 | 8 | 0.36 | -2.85 | 24 | 2.25 | 22 | -5.10 | 26 | (2) |
| 29 | Miami Dolphins | 5 | 9 | -0.83 | -3.89 | 26 | 2.58 | 26 | -6.46 | 28 | (1) |
| 30 | Tennessee Titans | 3 | 11 | -1.43 | -5.52 | 29 | 1.89 | 21 | -7.40 | 30 | - |
| 31 | Cleveland Browns | 3 | 11 | 1.23 | -4.12 | 28 | 4.30 | 31 | -8.41 | 31 | - |
| 32 | San Francisco 49ers | 4 | 10 | 2.77 | -8.90 | 32 | -0.16 | 15 | -8.74 | 32 | - |
Notable Rankings
- Biggest Climb - Chargers, moving up 6 spots to #23
- Deepest Fall – Jaguars, dropping 3 spots to #22
- Highest Loser - Bills at #12
- Lowest Winner - Vikings at #11
- Most Neutral – Giants (#13) with a SCOAR of 0.07
Week 15 SCOAR predictions
I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).
A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.
| San Diego Chargers | 21 | Washington Redskins | 23 | |
| Oakland Raiders | 27 | Philadelphia Eagles | 24 | |
| New England Patriots | 25 | Houston Texans | 20 | |
| New York Jets | 21 | Tennessee Titans | 18 | |
| Cleveland Browns | 12 | Indianapolis Colts | 21 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 32 | Miami Dolphins | 24 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 30 | San Francisco 49ers | 15 | |
| New Orleans Saints | 30 | Detroit Lions | 24 | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 16 | Chicago Bears | 22 | |
| Buffalo Bills | 25 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 25 | |
| Carolina Panthers | 29 | New York Giants | 21 | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 19 | Minnesota Vikings | 26 | |
| St. Louis Rams | 11 | Green Bay Packers | 21 | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 26 | Arizona Cardinals | 29 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 29 | Cincinnati Bengals | 21 | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 20 | Denver Broncos | 18 |