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SCOAR: Week 16 Rankings & Predictions

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Small shakeup in the top five, Seattle comes in at 5th.

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

The Seahawks had another convincing win, although SCOAR was not as impressed as it had been in the preceding weeks. The offense now ranks 6th, falling one spot as the Bengals just barely squeaked past while the defense is now ranked third. SCOAR still has the Seahawks finishing the season at 10-6, getting the fifth seed, and traveling to the Redskins. The Seahawks will face the 20th ranked Rams in week 16.

For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...

SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.

Looking Back

SCOAR had a great week with predictions in week 15. In straight up picks it had an impressive 13-3 record. Even more notable was the against the spread performance, managing a 12-1-3 record. The Panthers/Giants game was the only miss. This brings the season totals to 144-80 (0.643) straight up and 106-96-22 (0.525) ATS. This means, if you were stupidly using these predictions to make bets, you wouldn’t be losing money anymore! After how it started the season, I’ll take it.

Game Predicted Actual Game Predicted Actual
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 23 New York Jets 22 19
St. Louis Rams 19 31 Dallas Cowboys 16 16
Chicago Bears 17 17 Atlanta Falcons 24 23
Minnesota Vikings 23 38 Jacksonville Jaguars 26 17
Houston Texans 22 16 Arizona Cardinals 31 40
Indianapolis Colts 21 10 Philadelphia Eagles 22 17
Carolina Panthers 31 38 Tennessee Titans 13 16
New York Giants 23 35 New England Patriots 34 33
Buffalo Bills 23 25 Kansas City Chiefs 27 34
Washington Redskins 22 35 Baltimore Ravens 19 14
Cleveland Browns 13 13 Green Bay Packers 26 30
Seattle Seahawks 33 30 Oakland Raiders 22 20
Denver Broncos 17 27 Miami Dolphins 21 14
Pittsburgh Steelers 22 34 San Diego Chargers 23 30
Cincinnati Bengals 27 24 Detroit Lions 27 35
San Francisco 49ers 10 14 New Orleans Saints 29 27

Highs & Lows

  • Week 15 Best Single Game SCOAR – Arizona Cardinals: 24.42
  • Week 15 Worst Single Game SCOAR – Miami Dolphins: -22.69
  • Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Carolina Panthers: 92.00 (week 14)
  • Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Atlanta Falcons: -81.73 (week 14)

On to the Numbers!

No newcomers to the top five this week, although there was a little shakeup in the ordering. The Patriots regained the top spot, barely pulling ahead of the Bengals to come in at 9.91. The Bengals are close on their heels at 9.82. In third remain the Panthers with a rating of 9.15. The Cardinals follow closely at 9.13. Rounding out the top five are the Seahawks, with a SCOAR of 8.94. The top teams are all very closely rated; there is no clear cut team above the rest.

Team W L SOS O-SCOAR O Rank D-SCOAR D Rank SCOAR Last Week Change
1 New England Patriots 12 2 -1.04 6.25 2 -3.66 5 9.91 2 1
2 Cincinnati Bengals 11 3 0.17 3.95 5 -5.86 1 9.82 1 (1)
3 Carolina Panthers 14 0 -2.05 6.05 3 -3.10 8 9.15 3 -
4 Arizona Cardinals 12 2 -1.48 7.10 1 -2.02 13 9.13 5 1
5 Seattle Seahawks 9 5 -0.06 3.91 6 -5.04 3 8.94 4 (1)
6 Kansas City Chiefs 9 5 0.87 3.70 7 -4.60 4 8.30 7 1
7 Pittsburgh Steelers 9 5 1.68 5.08 4 -2.87 10 7.95 6 (1)
8 Green Bay Packers 10 4 -0.11 2.25 9 -3.17 6 5.43 8 -
9 Denver Broncos 10 4 0.70 -0.99 18 -5.08 2 4.09 9 -
10 New York Jets 9 5 -2.68 -0.21 15 -2.94 9 2.74 10 -
11 Minnesota Vikings 9 5 0.26 -1.26 20 -3.13 7 1.86 12 1
12 Buffalo Bills 6 8 0.50 1.38 10 0.07 17 1.31 11 (1)
13 New York Giants 6 8 -1.36 2.78 8 2.71 27 0.07 13 -
14 Washington Redskins 7 7 -0.65 -1.20 19 0.00 16 -1.20 17 3
15 Houston Texans 7 7 0.06 -4.07 27 -2.69 11 -1.38 14 (1)
16 Oakland Raiders 6 8 0.98 0.97 12 2.83 28 -1.86 16 -
17 Philadelphia Eagles 6 8 -0.02 -0.67 17 1.54 19 -2.21 15 (2)
18 Detroit Lions 5 9 1.84 -0.11 14 2.44 23 -2.55 20 2
19 Chicago Bears 5 9 1.65 -0.53 16 2.44 24 -2.97 18 (1)
20 St. Louis Rams 6 8 1.32 -5.79 30 -2.67 12 -3.13 23 3
21 Atlanta Falcons 7 7 -2.71 -2.99 25 0.14 18 -3.13 21 -
22 Jacksonville Jaguars 5 9 -1.94 0.74 13 4.28 30 -3.54 19 (3)
23 San Diego Chargers 4 10 1.08 -2.64 23 1.77 20 -4.41 29 6
24 New Orleans Saints 5 9 -0.74 1.38 11 6.05 32 -4.67 22 (2)
25 Dallas Cowboys 4 10 0.81 -6.46 31 -1.70 14 -4.76 27 2
26 Baltimore Ravens 4 10 0.23 -1.77 21 3.06 29 -4.83 24 (2)
27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 8 -2.51 -2.46 22 2.58 25 -5.04 25 (2)
28 Indianapolis Colts 6 8 0.36 -2.85 24 2.25 22 -5.10 26 (2)
29 Miami Dolphins 5 9 -0.83 -3.89 26 2.58 26 -6.46 28 (1)
30 Tennessee Titans 3 11 -1.43 -5.52 29 1.89 21 -7.40 30 -
31 Cleveland Browns 3 11 1.23 -4.12 28 4.30 31 -8.41 31 -
32 San Francisco 49ers 4 10 2.77 -8.90 32 -0.16 15 -8.74 32 -

Notable Rankings

  • Biggest Climb - Chargers, moving up 6 spots to #23
  • Deepest Fall – Jaguars, dropping 3 spots to #22
  • Highest Loser - Bills at #12
  • Lowest Winner - Vikings at #11
  • Most Neutral – Giants (#13) with a SCOAR of 0.07

Week 15 SCOAR predictions

I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).

A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.

San Diego Chargers 21 Washington Redskins 23
Oakland Raiders 27 Philadelphia Eagles 24
New England Patriots 25 Houston Texans 20
New York Jets 21 Tennessee Titans 18
Cleveland Browns 12 Indianapolis Colts 21
Kansas City Chiefs 32 Miami Dolphins 24
Jacksonville Jaguars 30 San Francisco 49ers 15
New Orleans Saints 30 Detroit Lions 24
Dallas Cowboys 16 Chicago Bears 22
Buffalo Bills 25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25
Carolina Panthers 29 New York Giants 21
Atlanta Falcons 19 Minnesota Vikings 26
St. Louis Rams 11 Green Bay Packers 21
Seattle Seahawks 26 Arizona Cardinals 29
Pittsburgh Steelers 29 Cincinnati Bengals 21
Baltimore Ravens 20 Denver Broncos 18