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SCOAR: Week 13 Rankings & Predictions

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Seahawks continue their upward climb.

Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports

After beating the Steelers in a shootout, Seattle has now won 4 of their last 5, increasing their rating enough to move up into 8th. The offensive rating has taken a significant upward turn and the Seahawks now have the sixth ranked offense. Defensively the team has struggled, dropping into 12th. They face another strong test this week traveling to the 11th ranked Vikings.

For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...

SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.

Looking Back

SCOAR had a fairly good week in predictions, going 10-6 straight up and 7-6-3 against the spread. All three ties were due to SCOAR predicting the same line as Vegas. The season records now stand at 111-65 (0.631) straight up and 76-79-18 (0.490) ATS.

Game Predicted Actual Game Predicted Actual
Philadelphia Eagles 25 14 Carolina Panthers 26 33
Detroit Lions 20 45 Dallas Cowboys 16 14
Chicago Bears 18 17 New Orleans Saints 23 6
Green Bay Packers 29 13 Houston Texans 30 24
St. Louis Rams 11 7 Minnesota Vikings 18 20
Cincinnati Bengals 25 31 Atlanta Falcons 22 10
New York Giants 27 14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 12
Washington Redskins 26 20 Indianapolis Colts 26 25
Buffalo Bills 20 22 Oakland Raiders 23 24
Kansas City Chiefs 27 30 Tennessee Titans 22 21
San Diego Chargers 23 31 Miami Dolphins 17 20
Jacksonville Jaguars 28 25 New York Jets 26 38
Arizona Cardinals 32 19 Pittsburgh Steelers 19 30
San Francisco 49ers 15 13 Seattle Seahawks 20 39
New England Patriots 25 24 Baltimore Ravens 25 33
Denver Broncos 19 30 Cleveland Browns 23 27

Highs & Lows

  • Week 12 Best Single Game SCOAR – Cincinnati Bengals: 40.14
  • Week 12 Worst Single Game SCOAR – St. Louis Rams: -35.10
  • Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Seattle Seahawks: 75.25 (week 3)
  • Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: -74.08 (week 3)

On to the Numbers!

The top five remains largely unchanged this week. Despite the loss, which brings them back to the field a bit, the Patriots remain in first with a SCOAR of 10.84. Following closely in 2nd are the Bengals, coming in at 10.29. In third place remain the undefeated Panthers, with a rating of 8.93. The Chiefs and the Cardinals swapped places this week, with Kansas City moving into fourth at 7.57 and Arizona dropping to fifth with a SCOAR of 6.86. The Seahawks moved up to 8th, virtually tied with the 7th place Steelers at 4.33.

Team W L SOS O-SCOAR O Rank D-SCOAR D Rank SCOAR Last Week Change
1 New England Patriots 10 1 0.05 6.93 1 -3.91 4 10.84 1 -
2 Cincinnati Bengals 9 2 0.43 3.59 5 -6.70 1 10.29 2 -
3 Carolina Panthers 11 0 -2.00 5.25 3 -3.68 5 8.93 3 -
4 Kansas City Chiefs 6 5 2.37 4.51 4 -3.06 6 7.57 5 1
5 Arizona Cardinals 9 2 -2.21 6.91 2 0.05 18 6.86 4 (1)
6 Denver Broncos 9 2 1.50 0.28 13 -5.25 2 5.52 8 2
7 Pittsburgh Steelers 6 5 0.79 1.43 10 -2.90 7 4.33 6 (1)
8 Seattle Seahawks 6 5 0.24 2.30 6 -2.03 12 4.33 10 2
9 Green Bay Packers 7 4 0.41 1.75 8 -2.55 8 4.30 7 (2)
10 Buffalo Bills 5 6 1.66 1.61 9 -1.17 13 2.79 9 (1)
11 Minnesota Vikings 8 3 -1.00 -2.26 26 -4.53 3 2.28 14 3
12 New York Jets 6 5 -1.49 0.18 14 -2.05 11 2.23 11 (1)
13 Houston Texans 6 5 0.19 -2.14 25 -2.51 9 0.37 17 4
14 Indianapolis Colts 6 5 0.81 -0.09 15 -0.39 15 0.30 16 2
15 Atlanta Falcons 6 5 -3.11 -0.39 17 0.21 19 -0.60 13 (2)
16 New York Giants 5 6 -2.02 1.77 7 2.74 25 -0.97 12 (4)
17 Chicago Bears 5 6 1.92 -0.60 18 0.51 21 -1.10 19 2
18 Washington Redskins 5 6 -0.31 -1.54 22 -0.09 17 -1.45 18 -
19 Oakland Raiders 5 6 -0.20 1.22 11 3.04 28 -1.82 22 3
20 Detroit Lions 4 7 1.90 -0.69 19 2.30 23 -2.99 29 9
21 Baltimore Ravens 4 7 -1.22 -0.14 16 2.88 26 -3.02 24 3
22 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5 6 -1.76 -1.43 21 2.53 24 -3.96 20 (2)
23 St. Louis Rams 4 7 0.88 -6.15 30 -2.12 10 -4.03 21 (2)
24 Philadelphia Eagles 4 7 -1.73 -2.05 24 2.00 22 -4.05 15 (9)
25 Dallas Cowboys 3 8 -0.12 -5.69 29 -1.01 14 -4.67 23 (2)
26 Jacksonville Jaguars 4 7 0.06 -1.75 23 3.08 29 -4.83 26 -
27 San Diego Chargers 3 8 0.69 -0.71 20 4.51 31 -5.22 28 1
28 New Orleans Saints 4 7 -0.57 0.81 12 6.15 32 -5.34 25 (3)
29 Miami Dolphins 4 7 -0.07 -2.62 27 2.90 27 -5.52 27 (2)
30 Tennessee Titans 2 9 -1.56 -6.67 31 0.35 20 -7.02 30 -
31 Cleveland Browns 2 9 0.46 -3.38 28 4.07 30 -7.46 31 -
32 San Francisco 49ers 3 8 2.24 -9.76 32 -0.12 16 -9.64 32 -

Notable Rankings

  • Biggest Climb - Lions, moving up 9 spots to #20
  • Deepest Fall – Eagles, dropping 9 spots to #24
  • Highest Loser - Bills at #10
  • Lowest Winner - Falcons at #15
  • Most Neutral – Colts (#14) with a SCOAR of 0.30

Week 13 SCOAR predictions

I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).

A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.

Green Bay Packers 26 New York Jets 25
Detroit Lions 20 New York Giants 25
Arizona Cardinals 27 Atlanta Falcons 24
St. Louis Rams 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23
Carolina Panthers 35 Seattle Seahawks 18
New Orleans Saints 21 Minnesota Vikings 20
Houston Texans 19 Baltimore Ravens 25
Buffalo Bills 24 Miami Dolphins 24
Cincinnati Bengals 30 Jacksonville Jaguars 20
Cleveland Browns 15 Tennessee Titans 23
San Francisco 49ers 13 Denver Broncos 26
Chicago Bears 24 San Diego Chargers 19
Kansas City Chiefs 28 Philadelphia Eagles 16
Oakland Raiders 23 New England Patriots 34
Indianapolis Colts 19 Dallas Cowboys 17
Pittsburgh Steelers 26 Washington Redskins 23