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After beating the Steelers in a shootout, Seattle has now won 4 of their last 5, increasing their rating enough to move up into 8th. The offensive rating has taken a significant upward turn and the Seahawks now have the sixth ranked offense. Defensively the team has struggled, dropping into 12th. They face another strong test this week traveling to the 11th ranked Vikings.
For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...
SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.
Looking Back
SCOAR had a fairly good week in predictions, going 10-6 straight up and 7-6-3 against the spread. All three ties were due to SCOAR predicting the same line as Vegas. The season records now stand at 111-65 (0.631) straight up and 76-79-18 (0.490) ATS.
| Game | Predicted | Actual | Game | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 25 | 14 | Carolina Panthers | 26 | 33 | |
| Detroit Lions | 20 | 45 | Dallas Cowboys | 16 | 14 | |
| Chicago Bears | 18 | 17 | New Orleans Saints | 23 | 6 | |
| Green Bay Packers | 29 | 13 | Houston Texans | 30 | 24 | |
| St. Louis Rams | 11 | 7 | Minnesota Vikings | 18 | 20 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 25 | 31 | Atlanta Falcons | 22 | 10 | |
| New York Giants | 27 | 14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 23 | 12 | |
| Washington Redskins | 26 | 20 | Indianapolis Colts | 26 | 25 | |
| Buffalo Bills | 20 | 22 | Oakland Raiders | 23 | 24 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 27 | 30 | Tennessee Titans | 22 | 21 | |
| San Diego Chargers | 23 | 31 | Miami Dolphins | 17 | 20 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 28 | 25 | New York Jets | 26 | 38 | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 32 | 19 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 19 | 30 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 15 | 13 | Seattle Seahawks | 20 | 39 | |
| New England Patriots | 25 | 24 | Baltimore Ravens | 25 | 33 | |
| Denver Broncos | 19 | 30 | Cleveland Browns | 23 | 27 |
Highs & Lows
- Week 12 Best Single Game SCOAR – Cincinnati Bengals: 40.14
- Week 12 Worst Single Game SCOAR – St. Louis Rams: -35.10
- Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Seattle Seahawks: 75.25 (week 3)
- Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Chicago Bears: -74.08 (week 3)
On to the Numbers!
The top five remains largely unchanged this week. Despite the loss, which brings them back to the field a bit, the Patriots remain in first with a SCOAR of 10.84. Following closely in 2nd are the Bengals, coming in at 10.29. In third place remain the undefeated Panthers, with a rating of 8.93. The Chiefs and the Cardinals swapped places this week, with Kansas City moving into fourth at 7.57 and Arizona dropping to fifth with a SCOAR of 6.86. The Seahawks moved up to 8th, virtually tied with the 7th place Steelers at 4.33.
| Team | W | L | SOS | O-SCOAR | O Rank | D-SCOAR | D Rank | SCOAR | Last Week | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England Patriots | 10 | 1 | 0.05 | 6.93 | 1 | -3.91 | 4 | 10.84 | 1 | - |
| 2 | Cincinnati Bengals | 9 | 2 | 0.43 | 3.59 | 5 | -6.70 | 1 | 10.29 | 2 | - |
| 3 | Carolina Panthers | 11 | 0 | -2.00 | 5.25 | 3 | -3.68 | 5 | 8.93 | 3 | - |
| 4 | Kansas City Chiefs | 6 | 5 | 2.37 | 4.51 | 4 | -3.06 | 6 | 7.57 | 5 | 1 |
| 5 | Arizona Cardinals | 9 | 2 | -2.21 | 6.91 | 2 | 0.05 | 18 | 6.86 | 4 | (1) |
| 6 | Denver Broncos | 9 | 2 | 1.50 | 0.28 | 13 | -5.25 | 2 | 5.52 | 8 | 2 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6 | 5 | 0.79 | 1.43 | 10 | -2.90 | 7 | 4.33 | 6 | (1) |
| 8 | Seattle Seahawks | 6 | 5 | 0.24 | 2.30 | 6 | -2.03 | 12 | 4.33 | 10 | 2 |
| 9 | Green Bay Packers | 7 | 4 | 0.41 | 1.75 | 8 | -2.55 | 8 | 4.30 | 7 | (2) |
| 10 | Buffalo Bills | 5 | 6 | 1.66 | 1.61 | 9 | -1.17 | 13 | 2.79 | 9 | (1) |
| 11 | Minnesota Vikings | 8 | 3 | -1.00 | -2.26 | 26 | -4.53 | 3 | 2.28 | 14 | 3 |
| 12 | New York Jets | 6 | 5 | -1.49 | 0.18 | 14 | -2.05 | 11 | 2.23 | 11 | (1) |
| 13 | Houston Texans | 6 | 5 | 0.19 | -2.14 | 25 | -2.51 | 9 | 0.37 | 17 | 4 |
| 14 | Indianapolis Colts | 6 | 5 | 0.81 | -0.09 | 15 | -0.39 | 15 | 0.30 | 16 | 2 |
| 15 | Atlanta Falcons | 6 | 5 | -3.11 | -0.39 | 17 | 0.21 | 19 | -0.60 | 13 | (2) |
| 16 | New York Giants | 5 | 6 | -2.02 | 1.77 | 7 | 2.74 | 25 | -0.97 | 12 | (4) |
| 17 | Chicago Bears | 5 | 6 | 1.92 | -0.60 | 18 | 0.51 | 21 | -1.10 | 19 | 2 |
| 18 | Washington Redskins | 5 | 6 | -0.31 | -1.54 | 22 | -0.09 | 17 | -1.45 | 18 | - |
| 19 | Oakland Raiders | 5 | 6 | -0.20 | 1.22 | 11 | 3.04 | 28 | -1.82 | 22 | 3 |
| 20 | Detroit Lions | 4 | 7 | 1.90 | -0.69 | 19 | 2.30 | 23 | -2.99 | 29 | 9 |
| 21 | Baltimore Ravens | 4 | 7 | -1.22 | -0.14 | 16 | 2.88 | 26 | -3.02 | 24 | 3 |
| 22 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5 | 6 | -1.76 | -1.43 | 21 | 2.53 | 24 | -3.96 | 20 | (2) |
| 23 | St. Louis Rams | 4 | 7 | 0.88 | -6.15 | 30 | -2.12 | 10 | -4.03 | 21 | (2) |
| 24 | Philadelphia Eagles | 4 | 7 | -1.73 | -2.05 | 24 | 2.00 | 22 | -4.05 | 15 | (9) |
| 25 | Dallas Cowboys | 3 | 8 | -0.12 | -5.69 | 29 | -1.01 | 14 | -4.67 | 23 | (2) |
| 26 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 4 | 7 | 0.06 | -1.75 | 23 | 3.08 | 29 | -4.83 | 26 | - |
| 27 | San Diego Chargers | 3 | 8 | 0.69 | -0.71 | 20 | 4.51 | 31 | -5.22 | 28 | 1 |
| 28 | New Orleans Saints | 4 | 7 | -0.57 | 0.81 | 12 | 6.15 | 32 | -5.34 | 25 | (3) |
| 29 | Miami Dolphins | 4 | 7 | -0.07 | -2.62 | 27 | 2.90 | 27 | -5.52 | 27 | (2) |
| 30 | Tennessee Titans | 2 | 9 | -1.56 | -6.67 | 31 | 0.35 | 20 | -7.02 | 30 | - |
| 31 | Cleveland Browns | 2 | 9 | 0.46 | -3.38 | 28 | 4.07 | 30 | -7.46 | 31 | - |
| 32 | San Francisco 49ers | 3 | 8 | 2.24 | -9.76 | 32 | -0.12 | 16 | -9.64 | 32 | - |
Notable Rankings
- Biggest Climb - Lions, moving up 9 spots to #20
- Deepest Fall – Eagles, dropping 9 spots to #24
- Highest Loser - Bills at #10
- Lowest Winner - Falcons at #15
- Most Neutral – Colts (#14) with a SCOAR of 0.30
Week 13 SCOAR predictions
I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).
A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.
| Green Bay Packers | 26 | New York Jets | 25 | |
| Detroit Lions | 20 | New York Giants | 25 | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 27 | Atlanta Falcons | 24 | |
| St. Louis Rams | 17 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 23 | |
| Carolina Panthers | 35 | Seattle Seahawks | 18 | |
| New Orleans Saints | 21 | Minnesota Vikings | 20 | |
| Houston Texans | 19 | Baltimore Ravens | 25 | |
| Buffalo Bills | 24 | Miami Dolphins | 24 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 30 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 20 | |
| Cleveland Browns | 15 | Tennessee Titans | 23 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 13 | Denver Broncos | 26 | |
| Chicago Bears | 24 | San Diego Chargers | 19 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 28 | Philadelphia Eagles | 16 | |
| Oakland Raiders | 23 | New England Patriots | 34 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 19 | Dallas Cowboys | 17 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 26 | Washington Redskins | 23 |