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Strategy Addict: Week 13 NFL Wagering Guide

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Hello, Field Gull friends! It’s all lining up for us, isn’t it? The Hawks have a winning record again, the wife got me a ‘Beer Advent Calendar’ from Costco… all is good for the next 24 days at least. Your SEO keywords for today are, “Streaming Movies” (i.e. Popcorn Time Download Here). I’ll hit my front page Yahoo feed one of these days!

Just rolling in teeders
Just rolling in teeders
Tom Pennington/Getty Images


Seattle @ Minnesota (Over 42)

Seattle and Minnesota have not played a game without 41 points or more being scored since 1996.

I understand the line. Minnesota is 2nd in the NFL with 17.6 points allowed per game. Seattle is 7th in the league with 20.2 points allowed per game. But at a total of 42 for any game played this year Minnesota and Seattle would be 7-4 on a wager on the Over.

Then there is the fact that post-Mexico Russell has guided the Seattle offense to an average of 33.3 points per game since the bye week. The bailouts from a collapsing pocket have been noticeably reduced, and the dude is straight out throwing fastballs down the seams.

Minnesota’s passing game will also present some matchup problems for the Seahawks, with tight end Kyle Rudolph fully capable of beating linebacker coverage and the trusted outlet of fullback Matt Asiata available to pick up 3rd downs in frustrating fashion. I fully expect Stephon Diggs to be shadowed by Richard Sherman in this game, leaving Mike Wallace for our 2nd corner of the week. Adrian Peterson still plays too you guys.

This play is all about trusting that Seattle can score 28 points or more for the 4th week in a row, and for Minnesota to score at least 14. The only risk here is a slow start for the Hawks due to a 10AM PST start time, but we’ve seem to have gotten that monkey off of our back lately. This should be a good one.

Betting System: Hammer Time

Arizona @ St. Louis (Teaser +13, Under 49)

This is my first teaser of the season, but just look at it, isn’t it beautiful?

We’ve got St. Louis who seems to force you into ugly games at home. We have a banged up Arizona team who just lost their starting running back and have a gimpy receiving corps. We have betting form of the Under going 10-5 in the last fifteen games between these two teams. We have St. Louis taking the first game on the road in Arizona.

As my only loser last week against San Francisco, I was wrong in thinking that Arizona wasn’t capable of a ‘let down’ game against an opponent (Mmm… Rob D. crow tastes good). After all, they are about two wins from locking up the division and every win from here on out is essential for home field advantage in the playoffs. But alas, these players are human and it’s easy to let up a bit when it is all but locked up.

There isn’t much deep analysis here as on paper the Cardinals should beat the Rams 8 out of 10 times, every time. However, thirteen points is way too much in a divisional game for a home dog. Especially for a Rams team playing spoiler.

Betting System: Gone Fishin’

Denver (-3.5) @ San Diego

Denver has an ever improving running game and San Diego does not have one, and won’t have one by the time this game starts. The Chargers average a paltry 81.7 yards per game, as our backup running back has almost as many yards as their entire team. The Chargers have two rushing touchdowns this year. Two. That will play swell with the Denver Broncos’ rushing defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL.

On the other hand, Philip Rivers is having one of the best statistical years of his career, a result that I foretold here. His TD/INT ratio is nearly as good as Derek Carr’s at 23/8, and his QBR is just behind Tyrod Taylor. He sure is an up and comer and I think he might have a future in this league. Too bad Denver just beat the best quarterback and offense in the all of the land right now, albeit at home.

DVOA is always a good barometer to double check for wager value, especially when backing a favorite. The ratings after Week 12 are out, and Denver finds themselves ranked 7th in overall DVOA, while San Diego is ranked 27th. This game won’t nearly be as close as this line indicates.

Betting System: Brock, the Virgin Favorite

Odds and trends courtesy of sportsbookreview.com.

As always, do your due diligence and be aware that lines are made to get action at 50% on each side and are not a 50/50 proposition. Good luck!