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The Seahawks suffered a disappointing loss last week, but SCOAR didn’t punish them too harshly. Their performance was only slightly negative, which is somewhat surprising for what seemed like a significant upset. The team now ranks 6th offensively and 4th defensively. They will close out the season facing the top ranked Cardinals. SCOAR predicts a loss, bringing Seattle to a final record of 9-7 and sending them to Green Bay as the sixth seed.
For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...
SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.
Looking Back
Well it was nice while it lasted.. After a strong week in week 15, SCOAR struggled to predict the numerous upsets in week 16, managing only a 7-9 record straight up. The predictions against the spread suffered a similar fate, going 7-8-1. This brings the season totals to 151-89 (0.629) straight up and 113-104-23 (0.521) ATS.
| Game | Predicted | Actual | Game | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Chargers | 21 | 20 | Washington Redskins | 23 | 38 | |
| Oakland Raiders | 27 | 23 | Philadelphia Eagles | 24 | 24 | |
| New England Patriots | 25 | 20 | Houston Texans | 20 | 34 | |
| New York Jets | 21 | 26 | Tennessee Titans | 18 | 6 | |
| Cleveland Browns | 12 | 13 | Indianapolis Colts | 21 | 18 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 32 | 17 | Miami Dolphins | 24 | 12 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 30 | 27 | San Francisco 49ers | 15 | 17 | |
| New Orleans Saints | 30 | 8 | Detroit Lions | 24 | 32 | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 16 | 6 | Chicago Bears | 22 | 26 | |
| Buffalo Bills | 25 | 16 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 25 | 21 | |
| Carolina Panthers | 29 | 13 | New York Giants | 21 | 17 | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 19 | 20 | Minnesota Vikings | 26 | 49 | |
| St. Louis Rams | 11 | 23 | Green Bay Packers | 21 | 8 | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 26 | 17 | Arizona Cardinals | 29 | 38 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 29 | 17 | Cincinnati Bengals | 21 | 17 | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 20 | 20 | Denver Broncos | 18 | 20 |
Highs & Lows
- Week 16 Best Single Game SCOAR – Arizona Cardinals: 46.24
- Week 16 Worst Single Game SCOAR – Tennessee Titans: -42.13
- Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Carolina Panthers: 91.11 (week 14)
- Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Atlanta Falcons: -81.31 (week 14)
On to the Numbers!
The top five is shaken up this week, starting at the top where the Cardinals (10.78) move into first after consecutive weeks with the top single game SCOAR. The Bengals remain in second with a rating of 9.46. Dropping from first to third this week are the Patriots, coming in at 9.25. After seeing their undefeated season spoiled, the Panthers (7.99) fall one spot into fourth. The lone newcomer to the top five is the fifth ranked Chiefs, with a rating of 7.77. The Seahawks fell just outside the top five this week, rating 7.70 and ranking sixth.
| Team | W | L | SOS | O-SCOAR | O Rank | D-SCOAR | D Rank | SCOAR | Last Week | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona Cardinals | 13 | 2 | -0.99 | 7.63 | 1 | -3.15 | 8 | 10.78 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | Cincinnati Bengals | 11 | 4 | 0.63 | 4.02 | 5 | -5.44 | 1 | 9.46 | 2 | - |
| 3 | New England Patriots | 12 | 3 | -0.83 | 6.19 | 2 | -3.06 | 9 | 9.25 | 1 | (2) |
| 4 | Carolina Panthers | 14 | 1 | -2.36 | 5.30 | 3 | -2.70 | 11 | 7.99 | 3 | (1) |
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 10 | 5 | 0.58 | 3.04 | 7 | -4.73 | 3 | 7.77 | 6 | 1 |
| 6 | Seattle Seahawks | 9 | 6 | -0.07 | 3.52 | 6 | -4.18 | 4 | 7.70 | 5 | (1) |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 9 | 6 | 1.44 | 4.41 | 4 | -2.51 | 12 | 6.92 | 7 | - |
| 8 | Denver Broncos | 11 | 4 | 1.35 | -0.55 | 20 | -5.30 | 2 | 4.75 | 9 | 1 |
| 9 | Green Bay Packers | 10 | 5 | 0.71 | 1.64 | 9 | -2.47 | 13 | 4.11 | 8 | (1) |
| 10 | Minnesota Vikings | 10 | 5 | 0.35 | 0.50 | 13 | -3.59 | 5 | 4.09 | 11 | 1 |
| 11 | New York Jets | 10 | 5 | -2.06 | 0.43 | 14 | -3.24 | 6 | 3.68 | 10 | (1) |
| 12 | Buffalo Bills | 7 | 8 | -0.11 | 0.89 | 10 | -0.46 | 16 | 1.35 | 12 | - |
| 13 | Houston Texans | 8 | 7 | -0.62 | -2.81 | 26 | -2.99 | 10 | 0.18 | 15 | 2 |
| 14 | Washington Redskins | 8 | 7 | -1.11 | -0.41 | 17 | 0.43 | 17 | -0.85 | 14 | - |
| 15 | New York Giants | 6 | 9 | -1.28 | 2.60 | 8 | 4.27 | 31 | -1.67 | 13 | (2) |
| 16 | St. Louis Rams | 7 | 8 | 1.98 | -4.86 | 29 | -3.17 | 7 | -1.69 | 20 | 4 |
| 17 | Atlanta Falcons | 8 | 7 | -2.19 | -2.74 | 24 | -1.05 | 15 | -1.69 | 21 | 4 |
| 18 | Oakland Raiders | 7 | 8 | 0.80 | 0.85 | 11 | 2.74 | 26 | -1.90 | 16 | (2) |
| 19 | Detroit Lions | 6 | 9 | 1.27 | 0.32 | 15 | 2.44 | 23 | -2.12 | 18 | (1) |
| 20 | Chicago Bears | 6 | 9 | 1.45 | -0.46 | 19 | 2.01 | 21 | -2.47 | 19 | (1) |
| 21 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 6 | 9 | -2.12 | 0.71 | 12 | 3.36 | 29 | -2.65 | 22 | 1 |
| 22 | Philadelphia Eagles | 6 | 9 | -0.26 | -0.41 | 18 | 2.56 | 25 | -2.97 | 17 | (5) |
| 23 | Baltimore Ravens | 5 | 10 | 0.78 | -1.39 | 21 | 2.44 | 24 | -3.84 | 26 | 3 |
| 24 | San Diego Chargers | 4 | 11 | 1.02 | -2.56 | 23 | 1.76 | 19 | -4.32 | 23 | (1) |
| 25 | Indianapolis Colts | 7 | 8 | 0.06 | -2.79 | 25 | 1.90 | 20 | -4.68 | 28 | 3 |
| 26 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6 | 9 | -2.54 | -2.38 | 22 | 2.95 | 28 | -5.32 | 27 | 1 |
| 27 | New Orleans Saints | 5 | 10 | -1.00 | 0.25 | 16 | 5.87 | 32 | -5.62 | 24 | (3) |
| 28 | Dallas Cowboys | 4 | 11 | 0.30 | -7.77 | 31 | -1.76 | 14 | -6.01 | 25 | (3) |
| 29 | Miami Dolphins | 5 | 10 | -1.07 | -4.45 | 28 | 2.40 | 22 | -6.85 | 29 | - |
| 30 | Cleveland Browns | 3 | 12 | 1.79 | -4.20 | 27 | 3.68 | 30 | -7.88 | 31 | 1 |
| 31 | Tennessee Titans | 3 | 12 | -1.11 | -5.82 | 30 | 2.81 | 27 | -8.63 | 30 | (1) |
| 32 | San Francisco 49ers | 4 | 11 | 2.68 | -8.84 | 32 | 0.55 | 18 | -9.39 | 32 | - |
Notable Rankings
- Biggest Climb – Rams/Falcons, moving up 4 spots to #16/#17
- Deepest Fall – Eagles, dropping 5 spots to #22
- Highest Loser - Bills at #12
- Lowest Winner - Falcons at #17
- Most Neutral – Texans (#13) with a SCOAR of 0.18
Week 17 SCOAR predictions
I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).
A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.
| New York Jets | 22 | New England Patriots | 31 | |
| Buffalo Bills | 22 | Miami Dolphins | 17 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 17 | New Orleans Saints | 21 | |
| Carolina Panthers | 34 | Atlanta Falcons | 29 | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 14 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 29 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 30 | Cleveland Browns | 17 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 20 | Tennessee Titans | 19 | |
| Houston Texans | 25 | Indianapolis Colts | 25 | |
| Oakland Raiders | 17 | Washington Redskins | 21 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 30 | Dallas Cowboys | 18 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 25 | Detroit Lions | 23 | |
| New York Giants | 30 | Chicago Bears | 26 | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 19 | San Diego Chargers | 14 | |
| Green Bay Packers | 22 | Denver Broncos | 25 | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 21 | St. Louis Rams | 18 | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 28 | San Francisco 49ers | 13 |