Effective draft strategy
As the draft grows near fans are divided into a few "camps" as follows:
The trade up camp – Weather it's that special guy that they believe will be the next sure thing and is just 10 picks away or just a firm belief that the higher you pick the better quality of player you get, trade up is always an enticing gamble. Additional popular arguments are – "We have 11 picks and there is no room on this roster for 11 guys" or "We need a guy at X position that will have impact on day one…" or "There is a drop in value just before our pick..."
The Trade down camp - JS strategy has been for the most part "The more the merrier". Just move a few picks back and you get another player. There are always more then just one guy we'd like where we pick and we could get one of them a few picks later.
It is easy to build a good case for either direction. It has to do with the players you want and your evaluation of the talent available at any point in the draft.
I decided to take a look at all the picks by JSPC that had at least 2 years to prove their value. I will rank the players as follows:
* - One star - A player that was a contributor.
** - Two stars - A starter or a high level contributor.
*** - Three stars – A core player, pro bowler, etc.
Since we do have a 1st round pick (again), I'll divide the picks to two groups. The Top picks – rounds 2-4 and the low picks – rounds 5-7(plus UDFA).
** Golden Tate
* Walter Thurmond
*** Kam Chancellor
* Anthony McCoy
* John Moffitt
** K.J. Wright
*** Richard Sherman
** Byron Maxwell
* Melcolm Smith
** Doug Baldwin (UDFA)
* Ricardo Lockett (UDFA)
*** Bobby Wagner
*** Russell Wilson
* Robert Turbin
* Jeremy Lane
** J.R. Sweezy
** Jermain Kearse. (UDFA)
* Jordan Hill
* Tharold Simon
** Luke Willson
* Michael Bowie
* Alvin Bailey (UDFA)
4 years of draft picks by JSPC. 14 stars for the top picks (rounds 2-4), 17 stars for the bottom picks (rounds 5-7) and 6 more stars for UDFA.
If I was just a stats guy I'd say that trading your late rounds picks to move up with your top round picks does not sound like a very valid draft strategy. I am not. It has to do with the specific players and their value for the current roster. The right player can justify a reach or a trade up.
However, if someone tells you that the higher the picks the more value for the team no matter what you should tell him – Not with our FO.
Just thought you may find this interesting.