Welcome to Blue Thunderdome. Many of you have been patiently waiting for this mock for a while. We’ve got 11 picks to start the draft. Let’s get to it.
(All SPARQ data throughout comes from Zach Whitman’s 3sigmaathlete.com.)
To start day 2, I have it on pretty good intel via Davis Hsu that my thoughts of moving up from the 63 have been on point. In fact, Davis gave me a specific list of names the move up will happen for. I won’t reveal those names specifically, but A) it’s a good list…I wouldn’t hate any of them, B) it’s a variety of positions, with some sexier picks/positions than others. Of course, the non-sexy picks would be the best chance(s) of falling.
I’ve mentioned on Twitter that Detroit’s #54 overall would be an ideal landing spot, and the Jimmy Johnson trade chart says #63 (276pts) and the #112 from the Saints (70pts) can get us to approximately to #55 (350pts). So, the numbers for a Detroit deal work. This is the good news.
The bad news…I don’t think any of the names on the list Davis gave me are going to fall far enough for Seattle to bite. Most of the list looks like top 50 picks, and it will be maybe one guy that will be a question between 51-55ish. So we end up picking at 63.
What do we do at 63? I’ve done some research, the exact type and findings of which I won’t reveal (yet), but the results essentially tell me this pick is going to be WR or OL. The only real OL that makes sense to me here is Ty Sambrailo. And I like Sambo. I like the idea of him slid in to LG moreso than as an OC (though Zach Whitman does tell me his profile does resemble a more athletic Max Unger). But I’m just having trouble shaking the idea that there are so many interesting, athletic OL that will come around later in the draft.
I’m leaning towards WR. And when you look at the WR projection for this range, plus the WR SPARQ chart, plus the VMAC visit list…what do you find? Georgia’s Chris Conley. A guy this athletic, with this good a character (showed up to all visits in suit and tie) you don’t worry about a long engagement. You get in the car, drive to Vegas, hit the drive-thru wedding chapel, and put a ring on it.
#63- WR Chris Conley
In the 3rd round, I’m again relying on another insider Davis Hsu mic drop, and his intel that PCJS love this RB class and will not be leaving day 2 without one (draw your own conclusions about what that means for the future of CMike or Turbo). Having not used any picks to trade up in the 2nd, the Hawks now can use a lesser pick to move up in the 3rd. I think they want to move up in the 3rd because they’ve been targeting Alabama’s TJ Yeldon for most of the year.
Pre-draft, Yeldon has a draftscout projection of #82 overall, and the JJ trade chart says they can get to #85 by using 95 and their native 4th rounder at 130. If they use the 112, they can get up closer to #79. San Diego enters the draft with only 6 picks, including #83 overall. That’s the team I target for trade here, and then the pick becomes Yeldon. I’m not particularly fond of Yeldon (I’m apprehensive of Bama RB’s, and Bama players in general), but my research tells me this is a high possibility.
#83- RB TJ Yeldon
Now we’ve come to my most difficult spot to predict. #112 overall. I think this is a good spot to finally hit on the OL that we’ve neglected the first two picks…then we could rest and relax a bit knowing Russell will have some protection, but it’s also a spot we need to dive into some defense for the first time. Honestly, I’d prefer to move some pieces around from the 53-man roster and get another pick in this early-4th range. That’s hard to speculate on though; both in terms of who we’d be willing to give up and in terms of what compensation other teams would value them at.
In the meantime, I’m going with the defensive side, and specifically DT. I think this is going to be a hotspot for a nice little run on DT. Names like Christian Covington, Marcus Hardison, Tyeler Davison are all projected between #101-132. So a mild drop or a slight reach and you get a pretty talented big. Davison is the best athlete (#11 DT – 120.0 pSPARQ), Covington next (#16 – 119.0 pSPARQ), and Hardison (#25 DT – 115.8 p SPARQ). All above 63rd percentile athletes.
I think Davison has the best combination of SPARQ, arm length, and production (7.5 sacks, 12.0 TFL), yet ironically he has the lowest projection of the three (#132). Maybe it’s because he’s seen as more of a NT, while the other two are considered more 3Tech’s? Or level of competition? I don’t know, but 7.5 sacks from an interior D-lineman is pretty impressive, and clearly the better value.
#112- DT Tyeler Davison
We moved pick #130 to move up in the 3rd round, so our next pick is the comp pick that can’t be traded at #134. Have to go OL. Have to.
I favor OG over an OC at this point. And, although we’ve seen some high-SPARQ OL listed as VMAC visitors, we’ve also seen some below average OL connected to the team Sambo is a 36.5% athlete, Robert Myers is 25.3%. It very much feels like the team is looking at two types: the James Carpenters and the JR Sweezy’s. Right smack dab in the middle between Sambo and Myers is Tyrus Thompson (29.6%). Thompson is the guy that I’ve been targeting all year to replace Carp.
6’5"/324 with 34.88" arms. Also graded out as PFF.com’s 6th-best OT in run-blocking at 94.6%. I think it’s important our LG candidate is a LT conversion as he may bounce back out to LT if/when Okung is injured or otherwise no longer with us. Plus, it’s not like converting from LT is as challenging as, say, the conversion Chastity Bono made.
#134- OT/OG Tyrus Thompson
And to continue patching our OL, with our first pick of the 5th round, I recommend the diesel-fueled, human wrecking ball that is Shaq Mason. Whitman’s done a great job chronicling Mason’s athletic ability, but the basics: he’s a 78.7% athlete who just destroys people into and out of the second level. His snap-fire is second to none on the OL in this draft. He ranked 11th on PFF’s OG run-blocking chart. The downside with him is his arm length, but that’s why you plug him in at Center.
#167- OC Shaq Mason
I expect this next pick to go either DT or CB, and as much as CB is the bigger need (both overall and in this draft), I like the number of CB’s I’m seeing available 6th round. More on that story later. Right now, I’m looking at a certain build of DT here, and it’s guys that run about 6’4"/290 and up, that also have high SPARQ and 34" arms. It’s sort of the Greg Scruggs category. A guy that has versatility to play inside and outside the DL.
My list is the types like Kristjan Sokoli, Brian Mihalik, David Irving, BJ McBryde, Alfy Hill, Caushaud Lyons. Most of that group can be picked later than this. But the one guy who stands out, is the one guy who tested at very nearly a 3-sigma level…Kristjan Sokoli. I think he’s a project, and I’m not even sure he’s a project for the DL…he may convert to OL…but this is the kind of athlete the Seahawks take in these late rounds.
#170- DT Kristjan Sokoli
With four picks remaining, I plan to use two of them on CB’s. The list of corners projected available here, that hit most Seahawk CB marks, includes: Rob Daniel, Julian Wilson, Dexter McDonald, Curtis Riley. I’m mocking the pick to be Rob Daniel, because although he has some redflags, I happen to know the Seahawks scouted BYU heavily all year.
I also know Daniel came through putting up a 4.41 forty, 125.4 pSPARQ, 14 PBU in 2014, and a 6’1"/209lb frame with 32.25"arms. Like the guy with the sprained ankle being chased by three zombies in TWD, this one is a no-brainer.
#181- CB Rob Daniel
This next pick is the one I have least confidence in. It’s the pick I have the least evidence to support making. But this is a player that I spotted in-season, watching him play live, and I had this moment that reminded me of the first time I saw Natalie Dormer on GOT…I just thought, "THAT’s what I’m looking for." And he’s still completely under the radar because he’s still such an enigma.
The player is WR Cam Worthy from ECU. He’s had a lingering foot injury since just after the season. All we know for sure is he’s 6’2"/211lbs. But it’s believed while at ECU, Cam was testing at a 43" vert. It wouldn’t surprise me if his speed is in the 4.5’s, but he still managed to finish 2014 averaging 18.47ypc (top 25 in the country). This is your redline, highpoint stud right here.
#209- WR Cam Worthy
And now I’m back for another CB. I’ve got both Dexter McDonald and Curtis Riley both still available. Dexter is 6’1"/203, ran 4.40 with a 128.3 pSPARQ…Curtis is 6’0"/190, ran 4.48, 124.5 pSPARQ and comps very nicely to Jeremy Lane. In the end, will it really matter if we get either of these guys? But for sake of the mock, the tie goes to the one with 32" arms.
#214- CB Curtis Riley
I think this pick will surely go to a high-SPARQ safety or linebacker. Jimmy Hall, Ryan Murphy, Akeem King, Reshard Cliett are some of the names I’d watch for. As very much a guess, I’ll take Cliett.
#248- LB Reshard Cliett
So there we have it. The final Seattle Sea-Mock for the 2015 NFL Draft. I already know it’s been shot to hell because as I’ve been writing it, Coach Carroll has been tweeting clues that have nothing to do with any of the players I’ve chosen. But maybe I’ll hit on a couple late. 3 picks out of 10 would still be solid.