Seahawks 53-man roster prediction 1.0: Preseason Week 1

It's officially the NFL's Preseason Week 1, which means roster predictions are in order. I'm going to throw my Seahawks prediction 1.0 into the hat right now, with the caveat that this thing will change as the preseason goes on and we have a chance to evaluate some of the end-of-roster guys. I'll try to do one of these for each week of the preseason.

As I went through trying to construct this roster, it struck me how difficult some of these cuts are going to be. In my first edition, it pained me to put quite a few players on the outside looking in.

Note: I try to keep an updated Seahawks roster and some of the heights/weights are different than what the official roster will list. I base these on my overall guess at a player's weight and based on things that the coaches or players say in pressers/interviews. Bottom line, try not to get too hung up on those numbers.

Let's give this thing a try:

OFFENSE (25):

QUARTERBACKS (2):

Keep:

QB1 Russell Wilson 5'10, 215
QB2 Tarvaris Jackson 6'2, 215

Cut:

QB R.J. Archer 6'2, 220

Comments: Russell Wilson will start, and T-Jack will do coin-tosses.

RUNNING BACKS (5):

Keep:

RB Marshawn Lynch 5'11, 215
RB Robert Turbin 5'11, 220
RB Christine Michael 5'10, 230
RB Thomas Rawls 5'11, 215
FB/DE Will Tukuafu 6'4, 285

Cut:

FB Derrick Coleman 6'0, 245
RB Rod Smith 6'3, 231
FB Brandon Cottom 6'2, 262

Comments: This group is tough, and for the first time in a while, I could see the Seahawks run with five guys here.

When making this choice, I had an eye toward the future more than the present, because Marshawn Lynch will almost surely continue to get the bulk of the carries in 2015. There will be a battle for the backup role between Turbin and Michael, and perhaps Seattle will look to develop Rawls as a long-term potential type of guy.

With Lynch's future in doubt (will he play next year?), Seattle will take the longer-term view for this position. Turbo has looked great in camp per multiple reports, and would be in line for a possible extension if Lynch retires. Christine Michael still has a year on his deal, I'm still bullish on him, and could legitimately be the true replacement for Lynch as next year rolls around. Thomas Rawls -- you just can't ignore the hype around this guy, so if the Seahawks like him, they better put him on the roster, because he will surely get sniped on waivers.

Bottom line, for a run-based offense, it behooves Seattle to cultivate the position with the long term in mind this year.

At fullback, I went with Will Tukuafu mainly because Derrick Coleman can't stay healthy in camp. I think the team loves Coleman and he's a key special teams guy, but if you can't count on him to play, it makes it tough to keep him on the roster. The perspective on this could obviously change in the next few weeks, but for now, it seems like Tuk is in the lead. He can also fill in at defensive end or tight end in a pinch, and I think the team likes his ability to pass protect on play action. He is, afterall, nearly the size of an offensive tackle.

WIDE RECEIVERS (6):

Keep:

WR Chris Matthews 6'5, 230
WR Doug Baldwin 5'10, 189
WR Jermaine Kearse 6'1, 215
WR Tyler Lockett 5'10 185
WR Kevin Norwood 6'2, 200
WR Kasen Williams, 6'1, 210

PUP:

WR Paul Richardson 6'1, 183 [PUP]

Cut:

WR Kevin Smith 5'11, 215
WR Deshon Foxx 5'10, 177
WR B.J. Daniels 5'11, 218
WR Ricardo Lockette 6'2, 211

Comments: I've got Seattle keeping six receivers out of the gate, while taking things slow with their 2nd round pick from last year in Paul Richardson.

Kearse, Doug, Matthews, and Lockett are locks in my mind. Past that, it's a jumble.

I think I've had the Seahawks cutting Ricardo Lockette for like... the last five years, and he never gets cut, so take my prediction here with a grain of salt. Regardless, he's a year older and his main contribution still seems to be in the special teams department. Will this be enough for a 29-year old player with one year of club control to crack the roster? We'll see.

Kevin Norwood is a wild-card here and while we haven't heard a ton about him in training camp this year, he strikes me as one of those sneaky guys that gets by with incredible consistency and dependability. We'll have to see how he does in the preseason -- can he make himself more important than Lockette? Overall, he's a solid possession style receiver that is known to be savvy in the scramble drill and effective blocking on the outside.

It's tough to ignore what Kasen Williams has done in practice (three touchdown catches today, per reports), and the Seahawks love guys with relatively unique skill-sets. Williams' size/speed combination is intriguing -- I think he's lost weight since he was first signed, and is probably more in the 205-210 range now -- and he has been dangerous down the sideline and has caught multiple touchdowns in scrimmage and practice situations. He's been known as a very good blocking receiver as well. So, if his terrible injury is finally behind him, Seattle could've gotten a steal in rookie free agency. I think it also speaks to the Seahawks interest in Williams that they moved Douglas McNeil to cornerback. These two things could be unrelated, but it struck me that there was a little redundancy going on with those two guys.

Bottom line? I think it comes down to a "pick two" out of Lockette, Norwood, and Williams.

Kevin Smith had been making some major waves before he got hurt, but he seems like a good practice squad candidate. I think B.J. Daniels may be out of practice squad eligibility, but it's not clear if he'd get claimed anyway. He may be a good "ghost roster" type, told to stick around Seattle in case the Seahawks have any injuries.

TIGHT END (3):

Keep:

TE Jimmy Graham 6'7, 265
TE Luke Willson 6'5, 260
TE Rashaun Allen 6'5, 250

Cut:

TE Anthony McCoy 6'5, 275
TE Cooper Helfet 6'4, 240

Comments: Now that Seattle has Jimmy Graham and Luke Willson as the one-two punch there, the third guy comes down to a battle between Helfet, Allen, and McCoy.

If only Anthony McCoy could stay healthy. McCoy is coming off of two straight training camps with torn Achilles tendons, so his shot at the roster was a little bit of a wild-card in the first place, and so far, he's missed significant time in practices due to a few minor injuries and to lightheadedness. At one point in his career, he was a great height-weight-speed option at the position, but that speed may be sapped due to the injuries he's sustained, so we'll have to see how he looks in game action.

McCoy has experience and has been in the Seattle system since college, so he has a real shot, but for me, he has to prove that he can be reliable as an every-day type of player. If he stays healthy throughout the rest of the preseason, he's got a real shot. If he doesn't, I think the team will go with a more reliable option -- in this case, either Helfet (who has been injured) or Allen (who has been healthy). Honestly it just came down to health for my pick here. It also doesn't hurt that Allen is more of a traditional type of blocking tight end, which the Seahawks may want to use from time to time (and Graham and Willson aren't really that type of player).

Another reality we could see here is that a player like Brandon Cottom, Will Tukuafu, or Garry Gilliam plays the role of the de facto third tight end, and the Hawks only roll with two at this spot.

OFFENSIVE LINE (9):

Keep:

LT1 Russell Okung 6'5, 315
LG1 Alvin Bailey 6'3, 335
C Drew Nowak 6'4, 300
G/C Lemuel Jeanpierre 6'3 300
RG1 J.R. Sweezy 6'5, 320
RT1 Justin Britt 6'6, 325
T/G Gary Gilliam 6'6, 306
G/T Mark Glowinski 6'4, 307
G/C Kristjan Sokoli 6'5, 300

Cut:

OT Jesse Davis 6'6, 309
OL Kona Schwenke, 6'4, 300
T/G Terry Poole 6'5, 315
OG Keavon Milton 6'4, 324
OL Will Pericak 6'4, 296
OC Patrick Lewis 6'1, 305

Comments: I've got the Seahawks keeping nine offensive linemen here, and this is another position group that is very hard to predict.

Garry Gilliam will be the swing tackle. It kind of sounds like Drew Nowak will win the starting job at center and Lemuel Jeanpierre may be pushed back to a backup guard/center role. It's likely that Alvin Bailey will start at left guard but if Mark Glowinski or Kristjan Sokoli look good in the preseason they could give him a run for his money.

Keavon Milton and Terry Poole are potential backups at the guard spots but appear to be just outside the bubble at this point. Jesse Davis and Kona Schwenke are good practice squad types.

Bottom line: This is a tough one. It wouldn't surprise me if the Seahawks also look to the waiver wire when final cuts are going down.

On to the defense.

DEFENSE (25)

DEFENSIVE LINE INTERIOR (4)

Keep:

NT1b Brandon Mebane 6'1, 305
3T1b Ahtyba Rubin 6'2, 325
3T1n Jordan Hill 6'1, 305
3T D'Anthony Smith 6'2, 300

Cut:

NT T.Y. McGill 6'0, 300
3T/NT Jesse Williams 6'3, 320
3T2b Jimmy Staten 6'3, 311

Comments: In my mind, Mebane, Rubin, and Hill are locks for the interior defensive line. Past that, it'll come down to a "pick one" out of the foursome of Smith, McGill, Williams, and Staten. I think the team likes Smith's versatility and style of play -- he adds a little bit as a pass-rusher but can also play on the nose if the Seahawks need him to. I think McGill is a practice squad candidate as a replacement for Mebane in the future, and I don't know enough about Staten to give a real opinion.

As for Williams -- it's a great story and I hope that he can make it back to the playing field, but he may not be ready in time to make the initial 53-man roster. Look for him to be a "ghost roster" type.

DEFENSIVE LINE EDGE (4):

Keep:

LEO/DE Cliff Avril 6'3, 260
3T/DE Michael Bennett 6'4, 275
LEO Cassius Marsh 6'4, 255
DE/3T Frank Clark 6'3, 271

Cut:

LEO Obum Gwacham 6'5, 245
5T/DE David King 6'4, 270
3T/5T Greg Scruggs 6'3, 280
5T/3T Demarcus Dobbs 6'2, 280
5T/DE Julius Warmsley 6'2, 285

Comments: With Bruce Irvin a hybrid between linebacker and edge rusher, the Seahawks may only keep four edge players this year, and the obvious four are Avril, Bennett, Marsh, and Clark. I think that Gwacham is a good practice squad type of guy, while Dobbs, Scruggs, King, and Warmsley will all battle to be the fifth edge guy if the team decides to stack their numbers there a little bit. The preseason will give us a little more clarity on this group, most likely.

LINEBACKERS (7):

Keep:

OLB1 K.J.Wright 6'4, 246
MLB1 Bobby Wagner 6'0, 241
LEO/DE Bruce Irvin 6'3, 263
OLB2 Kevin Pierre-Louis 6'0, 232
MLB2 Brock Coyle 6'1, 235
SLB Mike Morgan 6'3, 226
OLB Eric Pinkins 6'3, 230

Cut:

LB Dakorey Johnson, 6'2, 215
LB Quayshawn Nealy 6'0, 236
LB Tyrell Adams, 6'2, 228

Comments: Again, with Irvin partially playing as an edge defensive lineman, you could really consider this linebackers group as six-deep. But regardless, I think that the team will keep Mike Morgan and Eric Pinkins for their special teams ability/potential alone. Both have size and speed and provide depth at linebacker if necessary. I think that KPL is going to get snaps this year, filling in for Irvin and K.J. Wright in spots.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Keep:

CB1 Richard Sherman 6'3, 195
CB2 Cary Williams 6'1, 190
FS1 Earl Thomas 5'10, 202
SS1 Kam Chancellor 6'3, 232
NB1 Will Blackmon 6'0, 204
NB Marcus Burley 5'10, 189
FS/NB Steven Terrell 5'10, 197
SS/CB DeShawn Shead 6'1, 225
SS Dion Bailey 6'0, 215
CB Tye Smith, 6'0, 190

PUP:

CB Tharold Simon 6'2, 205 [PUP]
CB Jeremy Lane 6'0, 190 [PUP]

Cut:

FS Ronald Martin 6'2, 220
FS/NB Triston Wade 5'11, 185
SS Keenan Lambert 6'0, 209
SS Tyrequek Zimmerman 5'11, 213
SS Ryan Murphy, 6'3, 214
CB Douglas McNeil 6'3, 212
CB Mohammed Seisay 6'1, 202

Comments: The Seahawks have said that Tharold Simon is due back in a few weeks but I'm playing it conservative here and listing him as a PUP guy. In his place, I can see rookie Tye Smith making the roster as the fifth cornerback, adding depth on the outside and in the slot.

I don't feel super strongly about these picks though. I don't know if Seattle will attempt to keep two nickelback types in Blackmon and Burley, and I don't yet know who is superior in that role. It's looking like Blackmon has the edge, but Burley is younger and under club control for an additional season. Seattle could look to keep only one true nickelback and hope that Steven Terrell could fill that role if an injury to Blackmon/Burley were to occur. In that case, I could see Mohammed Seisay sneaking onto the roster as the fifth cornerback in this group.

I think that Douglas McNeil and Ryan Murphy make perfect practice squad candidates for this year, as do Triston Wade and Ronald Martin, both of whom the Seahawks have given good training camp reviews.

Dion Bailey has been the late addition to this group and has had an outstanding couple of practices recently, per all reports, so keeping him on the squad makes some sense from a depth perspective. However, I don't know that the numbers there (with five safeties) really makes much sense or not. I think the Seahawks like the versatility of Terrell and Shead enough (both could play cornerback, in theory) that this scenario could happen, but it also wouldn't surprise me if Bailey is cut.

Overall, this is a tough group to predict, and there's going to be a few guys that really hurt to cut.

SPEC (3):

Keep:

P Jon Ryan 6'0, 217
LS Clint Gresham 6'3, 240
K Steven Hauschka 6'4, 210

Cut:

LS Nate Boyer, 5'10 215

Comments: No surprises here.

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Alright, let me know what you would've done differently.