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Strategy Addict: Week 3 NFL Wagering Guide

Hello, Field Gull friends. It’s already Week 3 in the NFL and this season is going to be over before you know it. We have some lines this weekend that are skewed by public perception of recent trends. This of course creates value when assessing what the real line would be to get a 50/50 ATS outcome. Kylie Jenner bikini selfies, Khloe Kardashian Instagram, Kim Kardashian website… SEO y’all.

Elite nut kick
Elite nut kick
Joe Robbins/Getty Images
- Jacksonville (+14.5) @ New England (Under 48)

New England looks strong right now, but I’d like to remind everyone again that they played their home opener with infinite time to prepare for the Steelers, then got another 10 full days to game plan for the Bills. This is the first week that the Patriots will be working on a regular schedule and it just happens to coincide with an inferior opponent coming to town. They could be thinking about the Jacksonville Jaguars, but would anyone be blaming them for preparing for their Week 4 game in Dallas? Go check out the schedule right now and honestly tell me that the Patriots don’t have an excellent shot of being 14-0 before their Week 16 matchup at the New York Jets. It’s just gross, really.

Ok, back to Jacksonville. The last time these two teams met was in 2012 when the Patriots were 11-4 and the Jaguars were 2-13. Although at home this time, Jacksonville was a 14-point underdog. There were a total of 5 turnovers in the game and 8 3rd down conversions. The stat sheet indicates some sloppy play by the Patriots and they got out with a 23-16 win after pulling away in the 4th quarter. The Pats are definitely able to play down to an opponent, no matter how smart Bill Belichick is. If you can find 2 TD’s and a hook out there, I’d consider taking it. Also, with a total of 48 the under would be 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these teams. The Jaguars' 30th ranked offense agrees with this trend. I’m predicting a horrible game to watch that will end something like 21-9 Patriots. Betting System: 2014 Week 9, 0-8 Raiders @ Seahawks (-13.5)

- Indianapolis (-3) @ Tennessee

As much as the Patriots looked great, the New York Jets defense looked even better against Indianapolis in Week 2, exposing flaws in the Colts offensive line's ability to pick up blitzes. That loss has the Colts in ‘must-win’ territory on the road against Tennessee, a team in which they are 7-0 SU and 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings. Both teams have serious secondary issues with Indy dealing with multiple injuries and Tennessee dealing with a vacuum of talent at the position. This comes down to trust, and much like the thought of the Seahawks struggling on the road in St. Louis, I trust that the Colts will keep their streak alive against Tennessee here. With the Monday primetime game fresh in everyone’s memory, we are getting a gift of a line at -3 as well. Betting System: ELITE QB Needs Win

- Denver (-3) @ Detroit

Although it was sloppy and improbable let’s remember what the Broncos just did in Week 2, go into Arrowhead Stadium and steal a game from the Chiefs. They either forced or Jedi-mind-tricked the Chiefs into five turnovers, which decided the outcome of the game. Since that was a Thursday game, the Broncos get a few extra days of rest and time to game plan for this year’s version of the Lions, which is looking more like the Lions of old. On offense, the Lions rank 31st in rushing through the first two weeks. This should allow the Broncos’ defense to focus on the Lions passing game, which is good, as they are first in the league against the pass and allow only 133.5 YPG. With two offensive lines trying to find their way I’ll give the tiebreaker to the best defense on the field. This one is for the Bradfather as the Broncos win easily and ruin the Lions home opener. Betting System: Frenemies?

All odds and trends provided from the nice people in Costa Rica at

As always, do your due diligence and be aware that lines are made to get action at 50% on each side. Good luck!