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Strategy Addict: Week 17 NFL Odds Hangover Edition

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Hello, Field Gull friends! Seventh winning week in a row last week, so good on you if you are somewhere that you can take advantage (i.e. have internet). Wait, that’s all of you! This week is truly for the bettors, as more than half the games have no implications whatsoever. We just playing to play, brother. Your SEO keywords of the week are “Quit Smoking”.

Get away from me you beautiful brown liquid!
Get away from me you beautiful brown liquid!
Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

This postseason will be the third in a row that I will make my ‘no alcohol during the playoffs’ pledge to Seattle’s professional football team. The pledge is 100% effective in getting the Seahawks to the Super Bowl, so it must continue. However, it does lead to two things: a wicked hangover on New Year’s Day, and another doozy of one the day after the Super Bowl – win or lose. In between there is an impressive amount of weight loss.

This year the task will be a little complicated. You see, the wife and I have decided to enter the wine business and as of the the 4th of January will be the proud owners of a winery just outside of Spokane – let’s just call that place Liberty Lake. We are keeping our day jobs of course, but as any new business owners will attest, we are jumping at the bit to get some sales going to make the notion of owning a winery seem like a pretty good idea.

There will be a modification of the pledge this year as a result. It is never a good idea to pour a wine tasting without trying the bottle you open. I guess that is quality control in the wine industry. Darn, that sounds just terrible. I’d like to think that this is similar to the spirit of Seattle’s season thus far though; the modification, not the drinking part, and everything has turned out ok. Let’s make it three successful pledges in a row, shall we?

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (+3.5)

The Rams just won their Super Bowl as we all know, but their season isn’t quite over. This is a classic let down spot for them and their being on the road just makes it even sweeter. It’s a divisional matchup too and these games have been played pretty tightly in the past. In fact, San Francisco has lost by more than 3 points only twice in the last ten meetings between these two teams. None of those losses came at home.

These teams come into this game with inverse ATS streaks, with St. Louis winning ATS in their last three and San Francisco losing ATS. Those streaks are enough to get the public backing the Rams at 72% of money wagered so far. It’s the typical knee-jerk reaction, if only the Rams were interested in this game at all. That’s the same amount of public money on Arizona this weekend -7 against Seattle by the way.

Betting System: Ugliest Side on the Board

San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos (-9)

You know that situation at work where you can leave early for the weekend if you can get everything done? Pretty motivating, isn’t it. That’s the situation that the Broncos find themselves in this week, as a first round bye is on the line if they win this game.

The last time these two teams met this season, the Broncos held the Chargers to 3 points. More of the same this week, as a road trip to Denver won’t be good for San Diego’s passing game. They don’t really have a run game to speak of to save them either. Dump-offs to Danny Woodhead don’t count. This is a game that San Diego will want over before it starts, and Denver has every reason to want to pile on.

Betting System: Week Vacation WOOO!

Minnesota (+3.5) @ Green Bay

I wrote about the extensive list of injuries that Green Bay is dealing with here, but this is also the rare matchup of the sports books creating a false favorite. Green Bay is currently ranked only 18th in weighted DVOA. That is how poorly the Packers have been playing lately. Minnesota, on the other hand, is ranked 9th in weighted DVOA.

I would never root for a Seattle loss, but if it worked out that we had to play Green Bay in the first round I wouldn’t be too upset. The Packers are the weakest team in the NFC playoff field by far. We would take the ball and we would score.

Betting System: False Favorite

Odds and trends provided by our friends at sportsbookreview.com.

As always, do your due diligence and be aware that lines are made to get action at 50% on each side and are not a 50/50 proposition. Good luck!