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The Seahawks squeaked by the Vikings 10-9 in the Wild Card round on the ice planet Hoth, but still managed a respectable 9.82 single game SCOAR. The Vikings were also above average, posting a 3.69. The Seahawks held on to the top ranking with the 5th ranked offense and the number one rated defense. The Seahawks now travel to Carolina, where they take on the fifth ranked Panthers. Despite having the higher rating both offensively and defensively, SCOAR predicts the Seahawks to lose thanks to the Panthers higher PPG and home field advantage. So here's to another week of poor predictions by SCOAR!
For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...
SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.
Looking Back
SCOAR continued to revel in mediocrity as a prediction algorithm, starting the playoffs 2-2 straight up and 2-1-1 against the spread. The season totals now stand at 161-99 (0.619) and 119-115-26 (0.509) ATS.
| Game | Predicted | Actual | Game | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 20 | 30 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 20 | 18 | |
| Houston Texans | 18 | 0 | Cincinnati Bengals | 25 | 16 | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 21 | 10 | Green Bay Packers | 23 | 35 | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 19 | 9 | Washington Redskins | 23 | 18 |
Highs & Lows
- Wild Card Best Single Game SCOAR – Kansas City Chiefs: 82.48
- Wild Card Worst Single Game SCOAR – Houston Texans: -73.32
- Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Carolina Panthers: 90.86 (week 14)
- Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Atlanta Falcons: -80.27 (week 14)
On to the Numbers!
Despite the low scoring freezer bowl on Sunday, the Seahawks managed a positive SCOAR and remain on top of the rankings with a rating of 9.86. The Cardinals (9.09) are still in second after their bye week while the Chiefs (9.07) move up into third after a dominating win over the best the AFC South could muster. The Bengals, despite closing out their season with less composure than The Mean Machine, kept it close enough to stay in the top five with a SCOAR of 8.86. Rounding out the top five are the Panthers, who come in at 8.75 after their bye.
| Team | W | L | SOS | O-SCOAR | O Rank | D-SCOAR | D Rank | SCOAR | Last Week | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle Seahawks | 11 | 6 | 0.66 | 3.74 | 5 | -6.12 | 1 | 9.86 | 1 | - |
| 2 | Arizona Cardinals | 13 | 3 | -0.19 | 7.12 | 1 | -1.97 | 13 | 9.09 | 2 | - |
| 3 | Kansas City Chiefs | 12 | 5 | 0.51 | 3.24 | 7 | -5.83 | 2 | 9.07 | 6 | 3 |
| 4 | Cincinnati Bengals | 12 | 5 | 0.87 | 3.54 | 6 | -5.33 | 3 | 8.86 | 3 | (1) |
| 5 | Carolina Panthers | 15 | 1 | -2.64 | 5.51 | 2 | -3.24 | 7 | 8.75 | 4 | (1) |
| 6 | New England Patriots | 12 | 4 | -1.20 | 5.10 | 3 | -2.81 | 10 | 7.91 | 5 | (1) |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 11 | 6 | 1.27 | 4.10 | 4 | -2.92 | 9 | 7.03 | 7 | - |
| 8 | Minnesota Vikings | 11 | 6 | 1.21 | 0.11 | 13 | -4.81 | 4 | 4.92 | 9 | 1 |
| 9 | Denver Broncos | 12 | 4 | 1.18 | -0.07 | 18 | -4.71 | 5 | 4.65 | 8 | (1) |
| 10 | Green Bay Packers | 11 | 6 | 1.01 | 1.95 | 9 | -2.54 | 11 | 4.49 | 10 | - |
| 11 | New York Jets | 10 | 6 | -1.93 | 0.09 | 15 | -2.97 | 8 | 3.06 | 11 | - |
| 12 | Buffalo Bills | 8 | 8 | -0.04 | 1.04 | 10 | -0.70 | 16 | 1.75 | 12 | - |
| 13 | Houston Texans | 9 | 8 | -0.31 | -3.17 | 25 | -3.29 | 6 | 0.11 | 13 | - |
| 14 | Washington Redskins | 9 | 8 | -1.21 | 0.11 | 14 | 1.36 | 19 | -1.25 | 14 | - |
| 15 | Oakland Raiders | 7 | 9 | 1.39 | 0.97 | 11 | 2.54 | 25 | -1.56 | 15 | - |
| 16 | Detroit Lions | 7 | 9 | 1.27 | 0.54 | 12 | 2.45 | 22 | -1.90 | 18 | 2 |
| 17 | New York Giants | 6 | 10 | -1.38 | 2.61 | 8 | 4.67 | 31 | -2.06 | 16 | (1) |
| 18 | Atlanta Falcons | 8 | 8 | -2.43 | -3.35 | 26 | -1.16 | 14 | -2.20 | 17 | (1) |
| 19 | St. Louis Rams | 7 | 9 | 1.35 | -4.99 | 29 | -2.31 | 12 | -2.67 | 19 | - |
| 20 | Chicago Bears | 6 | 10 | 1.45 | -0.57 | 20 | 2.22 | 21 | -2.79 | 21 | 1 |
| 21 | Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | 9 | -0.59 | -0.07 | 19 | 2.72 | 26 | -2.79 | 20 | (1) |
| 22 | Baltimore Ravens | 5 | 11 | 1.34 | -1.16 | 21 | 2.49 | 24 | -3.65 | 22 | - |
| 23 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 6 | 10 | -2.00 | -0.05 | 16 | 3.83 | 30 | -3.88 | 23 | - |
| 24 | San Diego Chargers | 4 | 12 | 1.48 | -1.93 | 22 | 2.18 | 20 | -4.10 | 24 | - |
| 25 | Indianapolis Colts | 8 | 8 | -0.70 | -2.18 | 23 | 2.45 | 23 | -4.62 | 25 | - |
| 26 | Miami Dolphins | 6 | 10 | -0.74 | -4.24 | 27 | 1.25 | 18 | -5.49 | 27 | 1 |
| 27 | New Orleans Saints | 6 | 10 | -1.31 | -0.05 | 17 | 5.44 | 32 | -5.49 | 26 | (1) |
| 28 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6 | 10 | -2.05 | -2.81 | 24 | 3.06 | 27 | -5.87 | 28 | - |
| 29 | Dallas Cowboys | 4 | 12 | 0.29 | -7.16 | 31 | -0.97 | 15 | -6.19 | 29 | - |
| 30 | Cleveland Browns | 3 | 13 | 2.13 | -4.35 | 28 | 3.79 | 29 | -8.14 | 30 | - |
| 31 | Tennessee Titans | 3 | 13 | -1.50 | -5.33 | 30 | 3.54 | 28 | -8.86 | 31 | - |
| 32 | San Francisco 49ers | 5 | 11 | 2.32 | -8.14 | 32 | 0.84 | 17 | -8.98 | 32 | - |
Notable Rankings
- Biggest Climb – Chiefs, moving up 3 spots to #3
- Deepest Fall – 8 teams dropped 1 spot
- Highest Loser - Raiders at #15
- Lowest Winner - Redskins at #14
- Most Neutral – Texans (#13) with a SCOAR of 0.11
Divisional SCOAR predictions
I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).
A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.
| Kansas City Chiefs | 21 | Green Bay Packers | 20 | |
| New England Patriots | 24 | Arizona Cardinals | 29 | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 21 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 20 | |
| Carolina Panthers | 25 | Denver Broncos | 21 |