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The Seahawks closed out the season strong, blowing out the previously top ranked Cardinals. This gave them the best performance of the week and propelled them up the leaderboard. Seattle’s offense closes the season ranked 4th and the defense, after an impressive showing, finishes ranked first. The Seahawks will travel to Minnesota in the Wild Card round to take on the ninth ranked Vikings. The Vikings defense projects to match up well with the Seahawks offense but the Seahawks defense gives Seattle the edge in the matchup.
For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR...
SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.
Looking Back
SCOAR closed out the regular season in mediocrity. Week 17 brought a straight up record of 8-8 and an atrocious 4-10-2 against the spread. This brings the final regular season numbers to 159-97 (0.621) and 117-114-25 (0.506) ATS. Overall a disappointing season.
| Game | Predicted | Actual | Game | Predicted | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | 22 | 17 | New England Patriots | 31 | 10 | |
| Buffalo Bills | 22 | 22 | Miami Dolphins | 17 | 20 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 17 | 10 | New Orleans Saints | 21 | 20 | |
| Carolina Panthers | 34 | 38 | Atlanta Falcons | 29 | 17 | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 14 | 16 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 29 | 28 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 30 | 24 | Cleveland Browns | 17 | 12 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 20 | 6 | Tennessee Titans | 19 | 24 | |
| Houston Texans | 25 | 30 | Indianapolis Colts | 25 | 30 | |
| Oakland Raiders | 17 | 17 | Washington Redskins | 21 | 34 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 30 | 23 | Dallas Cowboys | 18 | 23 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 25 | 35 | Detroit Lions | 23 | 24 | |
| New York Giants | 30 | 30 | Chicago Bears | 26 | 20 | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 19 | 20 | San Diego Chargers | 14 | 20 | |
| Green Bay Packers | 22 | 13 | Denver Broncos | 25 | 27 | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 21 | 36 | St. Louis Rams | 18 | 16 | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 28 | 6 | San Francisco 49ers | 13 | 19 |
Highs & Lows
- Week 17 Best Single Game SCOAR – Seattle Seahawks: 47.62
- Week 17 Worst Single Game SCOAR – Jacksonville Jaguars: -32.45
- Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Carolina Panthers: 91.21 (week 14)
- Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Atlanta Falcons: -80.59 (week 14)
On to the Numbers!
And your regular season SCOAR champion, with a SCOAR of 9.90, is… The Seattle Seahawks! The Seahawks have been on top of the leaderboard at the end of the season for all three seasons for which I’ve crunched the numbers. It’s certainly possible they would be the 2012 champions also, but I haven’t gone back and done those calculations. The Cardinals (9.22) dropped into second place after receiving a healthy ass-kicking. In third we have the Bengals at 9.19. The Panthers remain in 4th place with a SCOAR of 8.94. Rounding out the top five are the Patriots (8.15).
| Team | W | L | SOS | O-SCOAR | O Rank | D-SCOAR | D Rank | SCOAR | Last Week | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle Seahawks | 10 | 6 | 0.36 | 4.32 | 4 | -5.57 | 1 | 9.90 | 6 | 5 |
| 2 | Arizona Cardinals | 13 | 3 | -0.23 | 7.03 | 1 | -2.18 | 13 | 9.22 | 1 | (1) |
| 3 | Cincinnati Bengals | 12 | 4 | 0.45 | 3.85 | 6 | -5.35 | 2 | 9.19 | 2 | (1) |
| 4 | Carolina Panthers | 15 | 1 | -2.42 | 5.57 | 2 | -3.37 | 7 | 8.94 | 4 | - |
| 5 | New England Patriots | 12 | 4 | -0.97 | 5.19 | 3 | -2.96 | 9 | 8.15 | 3 | (2) |
| 6 | Kansas City Chiefs | 11 | 5 | 0.50 | 2.87 | 7 | -4.76 | 4 | 7.62 | 5 | (1) |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 10 | 6 | 0.78 | 4.16 | 5 | -2.57 | 10 | 6.74 | 7 | - |
| 8 | Denver Broncos | 12 | 4 | 0.90 | -0.25 | 19 | -4.78 | 3 | 4.53 | 8 | - |
| 9 | Minnesota Vikings | 11 | 5 | 0.47 | 0.50 | 12 | -3.96 | 5 | 4.46 | 10 | 1 |
| 10 | Green Bay Packers | 10 | 6 | 0.98 | 1.27 | 9 | -2.46 | 12 | 3.73 | 9 | (1) |
| 11 | New York Jets | 10 | 6 | -1.68 | 0.18 | 15 | -3.07 | 8 | 3.25 | 11 | - |
| 12 | Buffalo Bills | 8 | 8 | 0.16 | 1.05 | 10 | -0.82 | 16 | 1.87 | 12 | - |
| 13 | Houston Texans | 9 | 7 | -0.80 | -2.25 | 24 | -3.89 | 6 | 1.64 | 13 | - |
| 14 | Washington Redskins | 9 | 7 | -1.44 | 0.25 | 14 | 0.77 | 18 | -0.52 | 14 | - |
| 15 | Oakland Raiders | 7 | 9 | 1.11 | 0.77 | 11 | 2.50 | 25 | -1.73 | 18 | 3 |
| 16 | New York Giants | 6 | 10 | -1.20 | 2.66 | 8 | 4.57 | 31 | -1.91 | 15 | (1) |
| 17 | Atlanta Falcons | 8 | 8 | -2.19 | -3.32 | 26 | -1.32 | 14 | -2.00 | 17 | - |
| 18 | Detroit Lions | 7 | 9 | 1.03 | 0.36 | 13 | 2.39 | 24 | -2.03 | 19 | 1 |
| 19 | St. Louis Rams | 7 | 9 | 1.35 | -5.10 | 29 | -2.55 | 11 | -2.55 | 16 | (3) |
| 20 | Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | 9 | -0.38 | 0.02 | 16 | 2.68 | 26 | -2.66 | 22 | 2 |
| 21 | Chicago Bears | 6 | 10 | 1.24 | -0.73 | 20 | 2.14 | 20 | -2.87 | 20 | (1) |
| 22 | Baltimore Ravens | 5 | 11 | 1.27 | -1.30 | 21 | 2.32 | 23 | -3.62 | 23 | 1 |
| 23 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 6 | 10 | -1.68 | 0.02 | 17 | 3.69 | 30 | -3.66 | 21 | (2) |
| 24 | San Diego Chargers | 4 | 12 | 1.21 | -2.14 | 23 | 2.14 | 21 | -4.28 | 24 | - |
| 25 | Indianapolis Colts | 8 | 8 | -0.39 | -2.12 | 22 | 2.28 | 22 | -4.39 | 25 | - |
| 26 | New Orleans Saints | 6 | 10 | -1.04 | 0.02 | 18 | 5.37 | 32 | -5.35 | 27 | 1 |
| 27 | Miami Dolphins | 6 | 10 | -0.48 | -4.19 | 27 | 1.16 | 19 | -5.35 | 29 | 2 |
| 28 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6 | 10 | -1.78 | -2.73 | 25 | 2.96 | 27 | -5.69 | 26 | (2) |
| 29 | Dallas Cowboys | 4 | 12 | 0.45 | -7.14 | 31 | -1.02 | 15 | -6.12 | 28 | (1) |
| 30 | Cleveland Browns | 3 | 13 | 2.06 | -4.51 | 28 | 3.62 | 29 | -8.12 | 30 | - |
| 31 | Tennessee Titans | 3 | 13 | -1.18 | -5.28 | 30 | 3.39 | 28 | -8.67 | 31 | - |
| 32 | San Francisco 49ers | 5 | 11 | 2.29 | -8.28 | 32 | 0.66 | 17 | -8.94 | 32 | - |
Notable Rankings
- Biggest Climb – Seahawks, moving up 5 spots to #1
- Deepest Fall – Rams, dropping 3 spots to #19
- Highest Loser - Raiders at #15
- Lowest Winner - Redskins at #14
- Most Neutral – Redskins (#14) with a SCOAR of -0.52
Wild Card SCOAR predictions
I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).
A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.
| Kansas City Chiefs | 20 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 20 | |
| Houston Texans | 18 | Cincinnati Bengals | 25 | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 21 | Green Bay Packers | 23 | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 19 | Washington Redskins | 23 |