Strategy Addict: NFL Week 4 best bets

Back to .500 on the season, but alive to fight another day. The constant stream of injuries in the NFL makes it difficult to break down matchups on a micro level, so I’m taking the macro approach this week. Only two picks this time as I have an appointment to take my turn massaging Russell Wilson’s knee, but I will likely bet them as presented and as a 7-point teaser, giving the Bills +14.5 and the Vikings +3 at home on Monday Night Football. Also only two picks because I’ve been shoveling grapes for two weeks straight and can barely lift my arms anymore. I will give Russell a very bad massage. Your SEO keywords of the week are, “Lost Kid Tennis”.

Buffalo Bills (+7.5) @ New England Patriots

The betting angle on this game can also be summed up as taking the nastiest side on the board, the one that there is just no way will play out any differently than anyone thinks. It’s a simple analysis really, The Bills have yet to lose a game by more than 6 points, and just obliterated Arizona. New England on the other hand, have only won one game by more than 7 points – last week against the Texans. I see that game as an anomaly.

So, the sportsbooks have put up a number of 7.5 here and the public doesn’t seem to be fazed by the hook. Close to 99% of the money wagered on this game is coming in on the Patriots. The last time these teams played in Foxboro the Bills lost by 7 points, with Tom Brady at the helm. This is the week that the Pat’s QB situation catches up to them, as they may win, but it will be a squeaker if they do.

Betting System: Books Are Cornered and Just Don’t Care

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings (-4)

Don’t look now but the Minnesota Vikings have a defense to rival that of the Seahawks, only allowing 13.3 points per game so far this season. The loss of Adrian Peterson hurts for sure, but I for one am not surprised that he didn’t finish the season. Sam Bradford has come in and looks to be a fine game manager, and since he has not been asked to put an entire team on his shoulders I believe he will perform well and surprise some folks in the process.

The Giants just lost to the Redskins in a game they had no business losing at home, following two very close wins against the Cowboys and the Saints. The fact that they could only put up 16 points against the Saints is a fact I’d like to point to, as the Saints defense is bad. Very, very bad. Minnesota absolutely dominated the Giants at home last December, with Eli throwing 3 picks and the Vikings cruising to a 49-17 win. Teddy Bridgewater and Adrian Peterson are not worth more than 28 points in this matchup, so I am taking the Vikings heavy here.

Betting System: Superior Defense at Home on Monday Night

Season record: 4-4-1, -.40 Seabucks

Odds and trends provided by sportsbookreview.com.

As always, do your due diligence and be aware that lines are made to get action at 50% on each side and are not a 50/50 proposition. Good luck!