Previously foretold on this season of Flower Rankings:
- The Broncos’ TNF loss in San Diego
- The Eagles falling from grace
- The Ravens starting to lose close games instead of winning them
- The Packers showing the Cowboys who’s boss
- The Cardinals saving their season, the Panthers not so much
So much truth, concentrated in a single place. The Green Bay-related screw-ups are there just to keep you interested.
All right. The rankings continue to be arranged by conference only. They continue to look four weeks ahead. Power rankings usually have a very short shelf life. These are designed to last for a month. Pace yourselves.
UPDATE: there is a new wrinkle, now that we’ve arrived at the second half of the season. At the end of the post, I’ll nominate the six playoff teams from each conference and rank them in order 1-12, of their chance to reach — not win — the Super Bowl.
Let us put the petal to the metal, then.
AFC
The Best
The elite. The contenders. The crème de la crème. The possibly Superb.
1. PATRIOTS (7-2)
at Steelers, at Bills, Bye, vs. Seahawks
Ben Roethlisberger’s injury is precisely the kind of lucky break the Patriots needed.
2. BRONCOS (8-2)
vs. Texans, vs. Chargers, at Raiders, at Saints
‘Schedule 2016: The Softening.’ Four wins ahead as the Broncos get well. Raiders will make it close-ish. The others will not.
The Bourgeoisie
Playoff level teams whose station in life is comfortable enough. But they’re unlikely to rule the empire anytime soon.
3. BILLS (6-3), up two
at Dolphins, vs. Patriots, at Seahawks, Bye
From last week: “The Bills are clearly the second-best team in the division, at least. They’re going to get a chance to sweep the Patriots in Week 8. Is this... is this their year?”
It will be. They’re going to the bye above .500 at least, with five very winnable games after the week off. Ten wins is reasonable and 11 is attainable. Especially if they beat New England in Buffalo, which will happen in select universes near you.
Anyway, Bills fans deserve a playoff appearance. They’ve been waiting for the postseason longer than Mariners fans. Reread that sentence and activate your empathy glands.
4. RAIDERS (6-3), no change
at Jaguars, at Bucs, vs. Broncos, Bye
They’ll go 2-1 by winning the road games and losing the home game. Jags and Bucs can’t cover a dining room table, let alone Amari Cooper — but the Broncos will drive Carr off a cliff.
5. RAVENS (6-3), up two
at Jets, Bye, vs. Steelers, vs. Browns
As predicted, three close wins for Baltimore were followed by three close losses. Now they start winning again. The Jets and Browns are the two worst teams in a conference full of bad teams. The Steelers are probably starting Landry Jones that day.
Last night, the Ravens faced 145-1 odds to win the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl odds - updated: pic.twitter.com/LpGgj8SH3P
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) October 18, 2016
Baltimore is not going to be available at 145-1 in a few weeks. More like 30-1. Don’t bet on football, but if you’re gonna bet on football, maybe take a flier on the Ravens right now to win the conference, or the title? Stranger things have happened.
6. CHIEFS (6-3), no change
vs. Saints, at Colts, vs. Jaguars, at Panthers
Which team is the best of those four? Whichever you chose, they’re inferior to the Chiefs. Maybe the Panthers will be decent by then? I guess? Three more wins for KC to keep the AFC West super interesting.
The Blinded by Parity
Because they’ve been deluded into thinking that 2016 is their year.
7. STEELERS (4-5), down four
vs. Patriots, Bye, at Ravens, vs. Cowboys
Charlie Whitehurst is available. I’m just saying. If you’re gonna lose all three games, you might as well look good doing it.
8. TITANS (5-5), up one
vs. Colts, vs. Jaguars, at Chargers, vs. Packers
Headed toward 9-7 and a division title and a collective yawn from the country because yes I know you stopped reading already here’s some closure via punctuation.
9. TEXANS (4-5), up one
at Broncos, vs. Lions, Bye, at Jaguars
Houston got so much momentum from that cray Sunday night comeback that they’ll lose their next three games by single digits instead of double.
The Beggars
All they’ll be choosing high in, is the 2017 draft.
10. BENGALS (3-6), down two
vs. Browns, vs. Skins, Bye, at Giants
Fear The Walking Bengals.
On second thought, don’t.
11. DOLPHINS (3-6), up one
vs. Bills, Bye, vs. Jets, at Chargers
They’re not dead yet!
12. CHARGERS (3-7), up one
at Falcons, at Broncos, vs. Titans, vs. Dolphins
Falcons gonna hang 60 on the Chargers. Then, Elway’s Revenge. Then, a split. San Diego seems like a really cool place to live. Please share your thoughts on Legoland below.
13. COLTS (2-7), down two
at Titans, vs. Chiefs, at Packers, Bye*
*pink slips all around
Of course, knowing the Packers, they’ll fumble and bumble and stumble enough to gift the Colts a shocking win, thus saving everyone’s job in Indy. Note that I do not believe this will happen but please please please make it happen oh please.
14. JAGUARS (3-6), up one
vs. Raiders, at Titans, at Chiefs, vs. Texans
Positive: Jacksonville’s not the worst team in the AFC.
Negative: pretty much everything else. Maybe Gus Bradley can hang on through 2017 somehow and then return as DC for the 2018 Seahawks?
15. JETS (1-9), down one
vs. Ravens, at Browns, at Dolphins, vs. Rams
From last week: “Nobody wants to read about them. Except that they’ll provide the Browns with their first win of the season.”
Unless the Bengals lay a poop egg vs. Cleveland first. God, I’m never going to forget that headline.
FYI: Geno Smith will start some of these games. He has 27 career TDs against 35 interceptions. His ANY/A is 4.63 and he once took 48 sacks in a season.
16. BROWNS (1-9), no change
at Bengals, vs. Jets, vs. Cowboys, at Ravens
Just run the ball 45 times against the Jets. That isn’t a joke.
NFC
The Best
The elite. The contenders. The crème de la crème. The possibly Superb.
1. VIKINGS (8-1), no change
at Eagles, at Bears, vs. Lions, at Redskns
Three road games and a definite un-gimme against the Lions at home. A first loss looks likely somewhere in there, maybe in Washington?
The Vikings are currently running a 12-1 turnover ratio. Sam Bradford has thrown no interceptions and only one fumble has fallen to the opposition. In five games! You want to know what the Vikings aren’t going to do? Finish the season with 38 takeaways and 3 giveaways. That’s the pace they’re on. Yeah no, an ugly game or two will surface eventually, and they’ll lose those.
2. SEAHAWKS (7-2), no change
at Cardinals, at Saints, vs. Bills, at Patriots
Three wins, then a short week before traveling to Foxboro. Don’t have to win that one if you take care of the Cardinals on Sunday night.
3. COWBOYS (8-1), up two
Bye, vs. Eagles, at Browns, at Steelers
Eagles are overrated, Browns are Browns, Steelers are a big fat unknown at this point. No reason for the Cowboys to drop any on this slate — except have you watched this season? Something fuckalicious happens every single week.
The Bourgeoisie
Playoff level teams whose station in life is comfortable. But they’re unlikely to rule the empire anytime soon.
4. FALCONS (7-3), no change
vs. Chargers, vs. Packers, at Bucs, at Eagles
Falcons will win the South but might only get the 4 seed, with how strong the NFC’s top three teams look at the moment. Oh well, sorry we “interfered” with your playoff plans.
5. PACKERS (5-4), down two
vs. Bears, at Falcons, vs. Colts, at Titans
I see no reason they should win either road game, with Aaron Rodgers performing 1.4 YPA and 15 passer rating points under his career norms.
6. GIANTS (5-4), no change
at Rams, Bye, vs. Eagles, vs. Bengals
Will they catch the good Rams, the good Eagles, the good Bengals, or each team’s clumsy twin? Yes.
7. CARDINALS (5-4), up three
vs. Seahawks, at Panthers, Bye, vs. Niners
Possible wild-card berth if they can win two out of the next three. They’ll need to get into position quickly, however, because five of their last seven are on the road. They can get started on the winning in Week 8 in Charlotte.
The Blinded by Parity
Because they’ve been deluded into thinking that 2016 is their year.
8. RAMS (5-4), no change
vs. Giants, Bye, vs. Panthers, at Jets
They’re gonna lose five out of their last six down the stretch (look here for confirmation), so now is the time to fish a couple wins out of the NFsea.
9. REDSKNS (5-4), up two
at Lions, at Bengals, Bye, vs. Vikings
Road split, close loss to Minny is what the surprising 4-2 Skins need, at a minimum. Three ugly defeats and they’re basically out of the picture. No pressure.
10. EAGLES (4-5), down three
vs. Vikings, at Cowboys, at Giants, vs. Falcons
Likely the once-undefeated-Eagles will be underdogs in all four. But they’ll win one. Atlanta maybe? My money’s on the Giants game, because division.
11. LIONS (4-5), up one
vs. Skins, at Texans, at Vikings, Bye
Maybe they’re the beneficiaries of the inevitable Minnesota sloppy game? If so, update to 5-4 and put them in the playoff hunt.
The Beggars
All they’ll be choosing high in, is the 2017 draft.
12. PANTHERS (2-7), down three
Bye, vs. Cardinals, at Rams, vs. Chiefs
Ron Rivera is already working on his 2017 Coach of the Year acceptance speech.
13. BUCCANEERS (3-6), no change
at 49ers, vs. Raiders, vs. Falcons, vs. Bears
Spent their week off watching the Saints win, but Falcons and Panthers lose. Result: Bucs are in second place in the NFC South. They of the -48 point differential, and -23.6 passer rating differential, which is one of the best predictors of W-L record out there.
Have they considered maybe having a bye every week?
14. SAINTS (3-6), up two
at Chiefs, vs. Seahawks, at 49ers, vs. Broncos
From last week: “The bye ended, the Saints can go back to giving up five touchdowns a game.” Another correct piece of insight for you. Can you believe these rankings are free?
Of course, giving up five touchdowns and a FG to the Panthers isn’t terrible if you score five touchdowns and two FG yourself.
15. BEARS (1-8), no change
at Packers, vs. Vikings, Bye, at Bucs
Go Cubs.
16. 49ERS (2-7), down two
vs. Bucs, Bye, vs. Saints, at Cardinals
They can’t score, they can’t defend (31 ppg allowed including the shutout win Week 1), and I’m not sure they can coach. But at least they’re set at owner for a long time.
(oof)
NEW FEATURES:
Projected AFC Seeds
(1) Patriots, (2) Broncos, (3) Ravens, (4) Titans, (5) Bills, (6) Raiders
Projected NFC Seeds
(1) Vikings, (2) Seahawks, (3) Cowboys, (4) Falcons, (5) Giants, (6) Packers
Ranked by chance to reach Super Bowl LI
- Patriots
- Seahawks
- Vikings
- Cowboys
- Broncos
- Bills
- Falcons
- Packers
- Ravens
- Raiders
- Giants (so long as they’re not 9-7)
- Titans