Last weekend went down just like we all thought it would: with a convincing ATS win for the Seattle Seahawks as a road underdog vs the Arizona Cardinals. Nothing unusual to see.
On to this week and the Seahawks return as a 3-point road favorite at 10AM PST against Drew Brees and the 2-4 New Orleans Saints. Don’t look now, but Brees’ passer rating this year is the best it has been in three seasons at 104.4 and he is averaging 350 yards per game. He has also passed for over 400 yards twice this year at home, where he operates at his peak. Brees is on pace for 5,602 passing yards on the season, which would break Peyton Manning’s 2013 NFL record.
Facing this Saints offense will be a challenge for the defense after they played six quarter’s worth of snaps on Sunday night against Arizona. Seattle will be without Kam Chancellor and Michael Bennett this week, so get ready for more Kelcie McCray and extra snaps for Frank Clark and Cassius Marsh. The Seahawks’ offense will be facing what is likely the weakest defensive unit they’ve seen all year, and they will need to kick the 10 AM blues and start quickly. For the most part, the 10 AM game “slow start” anomaly has gone away with Russell Wilson at the helm, although last year’s divisional game at Carolina fit the bill perfectly.
I’ve been tracking the lines throughout the week and the public is firmly pounding the Saints in this game, with the line coming down to favoring Seattle by a single point over at 5Dimes. The narrative in the wagering world is all about the tired defense not being able to keep up with the New Orleans offense. I’d have to agree in principle on this angle. The turnaround and travel for these guys after last week must have been brutal. Add to this another injury for Wilson and I don’t like how this is setting up at all.
The Saints are 2-4, yes, but have played what looks to be one of the most difficult and front-loaded schedules in the NFL. Losses have been of the close variety, and basically whichever team had the ball last in their games have won. If this trend were to continue, getting points while backing the Saints at home would be a wise choice.
There are also some crazy trends coming into this game that we should pay attention too. For Seattle, this stretch of the season has always been bad ATS, with them going 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Week 8 games. The Over is also 5-1 for Seattle in their last six games after scoring less than 15 points the prior game. Offense bounces back much? For New Orleans the Over trend is even stronger, with that wager going 8-0-1 in their last 9 home games. The Saints have enjoyed the month of October over the last few years as well, going 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games of that month.
With Seattle’s defense tired and New Orleans’ defense week, I like a play following the total trends here in a game that should be considered a tossup. Picking a side here is basically untouchable and not advised. That total is listed at 48 right now, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it didn’t jump to 49 by game time. Take the Over. What will Russell Wilson do with another 1.5 seconds in the pocket? Probably good things.
Odds and trends provided by sportsbookreview.com.