Last week’s pick was Under 21.5 in the first half and Carolina’s Team Total Under 17.5. The latter was a shoo-in, although the only points put up by Carolina sunk the first half wager. Earl… sigh.
“I’ve got a bad feeling about this.”
It all comes down to a feeling of trust when you are wagering money on a team, and the Seattle Seahawks have been nothing but schizophrenic in that realm, although their win-loss record suggests otherwise. The Hawks are 6-5 ATS this year and a middling 6-6 Over-Under. They have had two 3-game winning streaks on the year, but have not won 3 games in a row ATS. In games they have won SU, they are 6-2 in hitting the Over, so at least that has the prospect of looking consistent in that regard.
Seattle’s performance against the spread when playing Green Bay lately leaves a lot to be desired. The Hawks are 2-5-2 in their last 9 meetings overall and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Lambeau Field. Any place on the road has been hard to play for the Seahawks this year to be honest, as they are 3-3 ATS and average 15.3 points per game on offense. That won’t get it done against the Packers this week, as they have been amazingly consistent in their scoring output on the year. You’d have to go back to their loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 5 to find a game in which they put up less than 21 points.
The problem in the matchup last year, a 27-17 win by Green Bay, was the lack of a running game for Seattle. Russell Wilson was the leading rusher for them that day, gaining 78 yards on 10 carries. The Packers are once again defending the run well this year, allowing only 93.6 yards per game on the ground. If the Seahawks are to win this game, it will have to beat Green Bay through the air in inclement weather.
This game hasn’t picked up a lot of public action yet, but what little action there is has skewed towards the Seahawks. Seattle is picking up 53% of the wagers placed and 58% of the money in the market. Definitely not consensus when you look at teams cornering markets at 96%, 83%, and 81% like Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Minnesota, respectively. The Hawks currently find themselves favored by 3 points on the road, while the O/U total has been posted at 46 – even with the threat of inclement weather.
Seattle is in a commanding position to make the playoffs coming into this game, while the Packers have found new life at 6-6 after winning their last two. A home win against the current 2nd seed of the NFC would do wonders for their playoff chances, and I’d have to think they will be giving the Hawks their best shot. Coming into this position and getting points just shows you how strong Seattle is in the betting markets. I mean, it’s Lambeau Field in December after all.
I’m taking the Packers plus the points in this game, and if I lose, let us all know that the Seahawks have taken the next step towards dominating the NFC.