Last week’s pick was to take the Over of 43 in a game that ended up tallying 65 points. Another winner as Seattle restarted their long-standing trend of putting up 30+points against the Cards after their 6-6 tie earlier in the year. The rest of the game played out exactly as expected. Randomly.
Back in Week 3, the Seattle Seahawks made everything right with the world by following up a 9-3 loss at the hands of the LA Rams by obliterating the San Francisco 49ers, 37-18 at home. It was the beginning of a trend that is only now coming into focus, in that the Seahawks have not lost two games in a row SU this season, and have won the next game following an ATS loss five times in a row coming into this week.
These trends have me very excited about this match up with San Francisco coming into this week. A double-digit win last week over Arizona, covering the 9-point spread in favor of Seattle, would have pushed this line over 14 points in favor of the Hawks on the road. But instead there was ugliness and a vast sea of despair for Seattle backers as they continue to show no consistency at all from a bettor’s standpoint, their loss putting them 7-7 ATS this year. The line opened at a reasonable -9 favoring the Seahawks and has climbed to just -9.5 at some books.
The 49ers have been awful this year, that we all know, but the wagering world hasn’t captured the value of how bad they really have been yet. The Niners are 3-11 ATS on the season and have lost the last 6 straight ATS when playing at home. So much for a home field advantage in Santa Clara. Betting against San Francisco straight up in every game of the season would have netted you +10.8 units (where a unit is an equal amount one usually bets).
Seattle’s defense has played well in San Franc the last two seasons, covering up for some lackluster offensive outputs. In each of the last two regular season matchups in the Bay Area, the Seahawks have only given up three points and have taken 13-0 and 17-0 leads into halftime, respectively. In both of those games Seattle gained over 150 yards on the ground. That trend doesn’t look to be going away anytime soon either, as the 49ers allows an atrocious 184 yards per game on the ground at home (on 5.1 YPC!).
The Seahawks will face a San Francisco offense that peaked early, and I mean really early. After putting up 28 points in Week 1 against the Rams, the 49ers have yet to match that mark again all year. That must be depressing to watch. Their 32nd ranked passing game won’t be much of a threat against this depleted secondary. Speaking of injuries, the Niners have it worse than pretty much anybody in the league right now. Their injury list reads like a Tolstoy novel and running back Carlos Hyde is expected to miss the game on Sunday: The San Francisco running game is the lone bright spot on this lost season.
If it weren’t for the two wins against LA we’d be talking about the 49ers going 0-16 this week. They could use a high draft pick in the worst way to draft a franchise QB. Unfortunately, Seattle still has a lot to play for and a chance for a bye week, so I’m expecting a mismatch in intensity to display itself on the field. It’s time to lay the wood, and the points, as I’m taking the Seahawks -9.5 and will take them as high as -11. I suggest you do the same.