Strategy Addict: Super Bowl Edition

Carolina @ Denver (+12.5)

What's that you say, Denver +12.5? Let me explain.

As the betting public absolutely hammered Carolina after opening -3.5, I missed my opportunity to take the Panthers and buy the line down to a field goal. That line had some great value, as we have seen the money line for the Panthers inflate to -200 over the past two weeks. Since most games are won by a field goal or more, it was basically the same wager as you can find now without the insane amount of juice.

My only choice then was to wait. And wait I did as the points available for the Broncos kept climbing, climbing - eventually reaching +6 at Bovada. This is when I decided to pounce on my play of choice for this game, the teaser.

So, throughout the week I have teased Denver to +12.5 points with the plays I have been writing up over at SBR, along with some others. Gonzaga, Eastern Washington, the first O/U of the Knicks and Pistons (ok, that one is a little random but it worked) all came into play as other sides of the teaser action. Basically the play of the day for me with the play of Sunday.

Now that I have my portfolio of plays on Denver +12.5 I have many choices come game time. If the line dives to Carolina -4 or -5 before kickoff I can hedge that way and have a range of outcomes where both wagers win. If Denver scores early I can possibly get Carolina on a live money line with plus-odds and also win both wagers. The possibilities are quite endless.

I should probably let you guys know that I trade stock options on my spare time. Leave yourself plenty of outs. And that brings us to the next pick:

Betting System: Treasury Inflation Protected Securities

Carolina @ Denver (Over 45 Points)

Now, because of the above play and portfolio of live wagers at Denver +12.5 I can take the Over with the betting axiom, "Will Denver score 17 points or more"? If Denver scores 17 points, Carolina would have to score 29 points for me to lose the teaser on the side.

Denver has failed to score 17 points or more just twice this season. Interestingly enough, both games were against the Oakland Raiders. Denver split those two games with Oakland.

That's basically the beginning of end of it, as I consider the Over wager on this game a freebie with the setup given by the teaser. The Super Bowl has also gone Over the betting total in each of the last three years, two times with Seattle's great defense playing in the game. Points are fun, and there should be plenty enough in the perfect weather in Santa Clara.

Betting System: Free Spin