FanPost

Observations on the Scheduling Formula (and How the Seahawks's worst schedule will come in 2024)

In the midst of the revelation of the 2016 schedule, I tried to come up with the "best" and "worst" versions of a schedule the Seahawks will have in the upcoming future. Now, as you know, the NFL scheduling formula is based on this:

Every team plays six games against the other three teams in its division, facing off twice per season — once at home and once on the road.

Every team plays one game against each of the four teams from a division within its conference — two games at home and two on the road. Which division a team plays is determined by a rotation system ensuring that the teams in one division will play the teams in every other division in its conference once every three years.

Every team plays one game against each of the four teams from a division in the other conference once per season — two games at home and two on the road. These matchups are also determined by a rotation, which ensures that all teams play every team from every division in the other conference once every four years.

Every team plays its remaining two games against teams from the two remaining divisions in its own conference — one game at home and the other on the road. The matchups are determined by where the teams finished in their divisions in the previous season. For example, a team that finished the previous year in third place in its division will play the third-place teams from the two other divisions in its conference.

The AFC, with 4 different divisions, has a rotation cycle of 4 years, while the NFC, with 3 different divisions, has a rotation cycle of 3 years. Case in point, these were our opponents since 2013:

2013: NFC South, AFC South
2014: NFC North, AFC West
2015: NFC East, AFC North
2016: NFC South, AFC East

Using this same pattern, the Seahawks will have these opponents for the next few years:

2017: NFC North, AFC South
2018: NFC East, AFC West
2019: NFC South, AFC North
2020: NFC North, AFC East
2021: NFC East, AFC South
2022: NFC South, AFC West
2023: NFC North, AFC North
2024: NFC East, AFC East
2025: NFC South, AFC South
2026: NFC North, AFC West

As you can see, in 2021, the Seahawks are guaranteed to play four out of fourteen games on the East coast, which does not bode well for travel or 10 am starts. On the other hand, in 2026 the Seahawks will only have one official east coast opponent, which may not even be a guaranteed away game given that posiitonal opponents are decided on a case-by-case basis. Hopefully, technology would've reached to better heights by then.