Strategy Addict: NFL Week 1 Wagering Guide

Hello, Field Gull friends! Oh boy, is it ever good to be back here and with a fully functioning quarterback to boot. Many of the crazy line moves coming into Week 1 have been a result of some catastrophic injuries… Excuse me while I go knock on all of the wood in the house. We should talk about some of those line moves later and how we can take advantage of them. We will! But first, your SEO keywords of the week are, "No Headphone Jack".

I left you guys with news that the wife and I had bought a winery in January. Guess what! The government is really frickin’ slow on such things! Our application for a change in ownership is in ‘forwarded for final approval’ status, but has been assigned to ‘TBD’ for two weeks. ‘TBD’ is a slacker!

I’m also nearly two years in over at SBRpicks.com now, and with about 400 featured articles and picks under my belt things are getting a bit easier. I’m 53-39-4 in MLB this year, and would be much better if I didn’t have to write up the Mariners so damn much. The Mariners are the embodiment of randomness.

To the picks!

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (+1)

This is a game I covered over on SBR, and for my official pick there I took Over 45.5 points. The line had submerged from 49 after the Seahawks broke Tony Romo, but the Dallas running game and poor offense should get them past the new number. Now the line has moved across the zero line, and we find the Cowboys as home underdogs even with the Giants coming into this game losing 5 season openers in a row.

No, I don’t think that Dak Prescott is the second coming of Russell Wilson. However, what would we all collectively think if we had the offensive line that the Cowboy’s did? This is a luxury that we all dream about daily, hourly, minutely. I think that this game will come down to variables other than quarterback play, similar to the Carolina vs. Denver game on Thursday night, and in that case I will take the home team every time.

Betting System: Nothing is That Easy, Mr. Public

Los Angeles Rams of Anaheim @ Santa Clara 49ers (Under 44)

The Rams averaged 17.5 points per game last year, and still won seven games somehow. The 49ers averaged 14.9 points per game, and won just five. How are they rewarded? With a date on Monday Night Football! This line is expecting some great improvement by both teams on offense, although the last three games between these two teams have gone well under the posted total.

Now, we’ve faced the Rams’ front-7 before, and Aaron Donald and crew are going to have fun against Blaine Gabbert and the Niners in this matchup. We are still talking about an offense in transition here, to… whatever they want to be I guess, but in the end this unit won’t be at full tilt on Sunday.

For what it’s worth (nothing), the Rams will not be starting their number one draft pick in Week 1 as Jared Goff is inactive and Case Keenum is expected to start. Should I even go further? Gabbert v. Keenum. Take the under in this game and avoid your eyes from the ugliness.

Betting System: One of Those Ugly Rams Games. You Know the Ones.

Minnesota @ Tennessee (+2.5)

I feel badly for Minnesota fans. They seem like nice people, and after we stole a playoff game from them last year it appears their season has been stolen from them this year with the loss of Teddy Bridgewater. Then they lose their first round pick next year, which could be a very good one, to the Eagles just to pick up Sam Bradford.

Now, Mike Zimmer isn’t going to make it easy on me and name a starting quarterback after Bradford has been in Vikings camp for about a week and a half, but the fact that he can’t name a starting quarterback within two days of the first game is telling. The Vikings are probably running a very predictable offense this week, and the Tennessee defense won’t have to prepare for much.

And yet, the Tennessee Titans still find themselves as home underdogs. This is a spot that sharps are all over, and to prove it I will give you some numbers. SBR consensus shows that the wagers placed on this game are split nearly 50/50; however, the dollar amount of these wagers are split 97% to 3% in favor of the Titans. In fact, the average wager size on the Titans is 30 times that of the wagers on the Vikings. That is some folks slamming the table with hundo’s and we would be wise to follow suit.

Betting System: Follow the Money

Odds and trends provided by our friends at sportsbookreview.com.

As always, do your due diligence and be aware that lines are made to get action at 50% on each side and are not a 50/50 proposition. Good luck!