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Strategy Addict: Week 2 NFL Wagering Guide

Tarvaris?
Tarvaris?
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Hello Field Gull Friends! Oh lordy me (No religion!), but ‘TBD' finally came through and you are looking at one fine individual who can legally make up to 250,000 gallons of booze per year! That is a metric shit ton of booze, and it starts early Friday morning as I wake up at 4AM to make the trek down to Red Mountain to pick up some Malbec. Seriously, the worst thing about this so far has been learning how to hook up the grape hauling trailer. Remember to discuss your favorite picks of the week in the comments! Thanks to shams for bullying me into taking New England for a big win last week over the Cardinals for some cold hard cash. Your SEO keywords of the week are, "Presidential Polls". (No politics! Come on Yahoo! aggregator, give me a shot.)

Atlanta Falcons (+4.5) @ Oakland Raiders

Remember when the Seattle Seahawks were the sexy pick to take it all back in 2011 and 2012, before finally breaking free in 2013 to realize their true potential? That is the flavor of praise being heaped on the Oakland Raiders right now, who are putting together a young core that would be the envy of any GM. On the other hand, their young core doesn’t have any semblance of what will become the Legend of Boom, and the Falcons come to town with serious receiving weapons that I think are even more potent than those of the Saints who put up 34 points against these Raiders.

Compounding the idea that Oakland can keep up in a pass orientated shootout is that three of their starting offensive lineman have missed practice this week. Atlanta had a hard time getting pressure on the QB against Tampa Bay, so any measure of success here would be positive. I’m not suggesting that the Falcons win this game outright, but it should be a close one and 4.5 points is too much to give for Oakland here.

Betting System: Slow Your Roll, Dude

Green Bay (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings

There is an axiom when making picks for closely matched teams, and that is to take the better quarterback. This is doubly so when the quarterback of your team is up in the air and you are facing Aaron Rodgers, who proved a few times last week that he is actually a wizard.

I had Tennessee against Minnesota last week for my only loss here and I have no problem fading them again. They covered the spread based on two defensive touchdowns only, and I don’t expect the Packers to be so careless with the ball this time around. The Vikings will have to put up some offensive scores in this game to win, and I just don’t trust them to do so. Take the Packers here, even if it hurts you.

Betting System: Take the Better Quarterback

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Diego Chargers (-3)

This is another situation where you can spot the sharp money very easily on the side of this game. At time of writing, over 63% of the wagers on this game are on Jacksonville. However, over 75% of the money wagered is on the San Diego Chargers, for an average bet of $66 for the Jags and $351 for the Chargers. That’s some folks in the know laying down their hundo’s.

Losing Keenan Allen really sucks for the Chargers coming into this one, but unlike in the 2nd half of their game against the Chiefs, they will have a few days to think about how to compensate. But even then, I still have a hankering to back the Jaguars here, them bringing Gus Bradley and all. I’ll defer to what the market is telling me though, and take the Chargers at home against the traveling East Coast team on the road.

Betting System: Follow the Money

And I'm taking Seattle.

Season record: 1-1-1, -.10 Seabucks

Odds and trends provided by our friends at sportsbookreview.com.

As always, do your due diligence and be aware that lines are made to get action at 50% on each side and are not a 50/50 proposition. Good luck!