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Strategy Addict: Week 3 NFL Picks

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San Diego Chargers v Kansas City Chiefs
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Hello Field Gull Friends! In the black here and not looking back as we look forward to Week 3 in the NFL. Before you know it 18.7% of the season will be over and we will still be talking about baseball. This is weird. For reasons more than one, the SEO keywords of the week are “Climate Change”.

New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)

The Jets come into this game with extra rest as they played last Thursday night against Buffalo – coming away with a 37-31 road win. They will have that advantage, but they won’t have the advantage of Arrowhead, which has proven to be just as big a home field advantage as CenturyLink has over the past few years. The Chiefs have won 7 regular season games at home in a row, and I think people forget the absolute tear they went on after starting the season 1-5 last year, winning ten straight.

Yes, Kansas City struggled on the road at Houston, but many offenses do. Coming into town is a New York Jet defense that gave up 31 points on the road against the Buffalo Bills in 20 minutes of possession. The Chiefs should be able to move the ball against them if they let Tyrod Taylor pass for more than 300 yards last week.

But the kicker for me here is that the line opened up with Kansas City favored by 3.5 points, which was immediately hammered by the public on the side of the Jets, yet the line moved very slowly to 3. That looks like a well laid trap to me, and now that the books are trying to even out the action by placing the Chiefs at -2.5, I’m in on the home team.

Betting System: Loud Noises

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles (Over 46.5)

Sometimes picks don’t have to be very mysterious, as I just like both of these offenses coming into this game. I also think the defensive performances of each team in the first two weeks are a little misleading, as they are over teams with significant offensive struggles. I don’t see either one of these teams struggling to reach 20 points in this game.

The Eagles also played on Monday night, which will give them one less day to prepare for the Pittsburgh offense. Philadelphia has cashed the over 5 out of 7 times following a Monday night game, so there is a precedent here. They are also 0-5 ATS in that situation, if you want to back Pittsburgh -3.5, but I don’t like the hook and will stick with the total.

Betting System: False Trends Against Weak Teams

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (-3)

Last week we saw a trend in which a majority of the bets were on one side of a wager, yet the greatest amount wagered was on the other side. It’s the easiest way to spot ‘smart money’, as they were laying larger bets to counter all of the little ones.

This week we have a similar situation presenting itself with Washington visiting the New York Giants, as the size of wager on the Giants compared to the Redskins is larger by a ratio of almost 10 to 1. In fact, even though the Giants are capturing 53% of the wagers they are capturing over 90% of the money. Oddly enough, this line opened with the Giants favored by 4.5. The line has actually moved against money flow. Someone blindly following line moves would think that everyone is piling on the Redskins for some reason or another and pile on. Don’t do that. Follow the money and take the home team here.

Betting System: Follow the Money Redux

Season record: 3-2-1, +.80 Seabucks

Odds and trends provided by our friends at www.sportsbookreview.com.

As always, do your due diligence and be aware that lines are made to get action at 50% on each side and are not a 50/50 proposition. Good luck!