SCOAR: A look back at 2015's results and a look ahead to Week 1 score predictions

For those of you who still aren't familiar with SCOAR:

SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I'll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team's points to the average points of that team's opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team's points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.

For some reason I didn't feel like keeping up with SCOAR after the Divisional round last year, so today you get a jumbo SCOAR with a recap of last year's final results and a preview of the 2016 season. Despite an early exit, the Seahawks managed to finish the 2015 season in first place and carry that ranking over into the 2016 season. Their final five weeks of the season, which serve as the basis for the new season, were very strong. The Week 17 beatdown of the Cardinals (even though they weren't trying) was one of the largest single game SCOAR values of the season.

Looking Back at 2015

SCOAR finished the season with a respectable 166-101 (0.622) record in straight up predictions and a less than stellar 121-119-27 (0.504) against the spread. I was disappointed with how little the system improved over the year going against the spread, especially compared to the inaugural SCOAR season in 2014. The top five of 2015 is rather interesting, as it features the Seahawks (lost in Divisional), Chiefs (lost in Wild Card), Bengals (lost in Wild Card), Panthers (lost in Super Bowl), and Patriots (lost in Conference Championship). Noticeably missing are the Super Bowl Champion Broncos, who finished the year in eighth.

On to 2016!

I had intended to re-work the early season methodology during the offseason, since the last few weeks of the prior season are probably not a great indicator. Unfortunately, it's three days before kickoff and this is the first time I've opened my spreadsheets so we're stuck with the same old early season system for this season. One change I will be making is using a "neutral" score to account for home/away games to try and better represent home field advantage. I'll track this behind the scenes and make a switch at some point if it seems like it's helping.

To open the 2016 season, the Seahawks remain in first with a decisive advantage over the second place Cardinals. The Seahawks defensive SCOAR alone is almost equal to the Cardinals total SCOAR. In third place we have the Vikings (SCOAR doesn't adjust for injuries). The Steelers come in at fourth, and the Super Bowl champs debut in fifth. Again, these are based completely on 2015 week 13-17 results and will gradually transition to 2016 results over the first 5 weeks of the season.

Week 1 SCOAR predictions

I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you're more than welcome to send me money if they help you).

A reminder that SCOAR doesn't know what a normal football score looks like, so it's bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.