Who is to blame for the struggles of the Seahawks 2016 red zone offense?

In their 36-20 loss to the Atlanta Falcons, the Seattle Seahawks scored a red zone touchdown on the opening drive, then settled for field goals on their remaining two trips inside the 20. A paltry 1-for-3 success rate against the worst red zone defense in the NFL was a microcosm of their season-long offensive struggles, particularly in the red zone.

The Seahawks ranked 27th in red zone efficiency -- anything but a touchdown means bad news for your efficiency rate — the worst it has ever been in the Russell Wilson era. On the road, they were second-to-last in RZ % (better than only the New York Jets), so 1-for-3 against Atlanta was effectively meeting their season average.

It’s perfectly reasonable to attribute the failings of the whole 2016 offense on Wilson’s lingering injuries, lack of stability at running back, as well as the at-times ruinously bad play of the offensive line. The question becomes whether Seattle’s red zone woes are isolated to this year, or if this has been a recurring problem for several seasons.

Is it Darrell Bevell?

Bevell has been an offensive coordinator since 2006. He spent five seasons in Minnesota before joining the Seahawks in 2011. Here’s how his offenses have fared by DVOA ranking, as well as their red zone percentages.

A couple of footnotes:

• 2009 was the year Brett Favre joined the Vikings, where he squeezed out one last quality season before aging thirty years in 2010. Otherwise, the QBs who preceded Favre in the Bevell-era were Tarvaris Jackson, Gus Frerotte, and Brad Johnson.
• When the 2015 Seahawks were 4-5, their red zone offense was ranked last in the NFL. They shot up to mid-table by the end of the regular season, so the surge in Seattle’s overall offensive ranking coincided with their red zone success.

Overall, there isn’t too much I think we can gather from this. Much of the prevailing pattern is logical. That is to say, when the offense is mediocre-to-terrible, the red zone offense follows suit, but when the offense performs well, red zone numbers are at least above-average. The 2014 and 2015 Seahawks stray outside the general data set, which leads me to the next question.

Is it Russell Wilson?

I love Russell Wilson, you love Russell Wilson, we all love Russell Wilson. He’s blossomed into one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and if we are to assume he can be even better than he has been over his first five seasons, then I think he’s on course to reach the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

For as much as Wilson has been a very accurate passer over the course of his career, he’s anything but that in the red zone.

I believe that the best way to measure Wilson’s numbers is to compare them with the QBs of the top three red zone offenses in each year since Wilson entered the league. In this table, the QBs are ranked according to where their respective teams placed in RZ %, as opposed to their QB rating.

The average completion percentage for the quarterbacks listed here is about 61.6%, which means Wilson is 10.5% below that figure. Four of the five QBs with the worst completion percentage in this table — 2014 Cutler, 2013 Romo, 2016 Prescott, and 2016 Kaepernick — had rushing offenses ranked at least 11th in DVOA. Ryan Fitzpatrick and the 2015 New York Jets ranked 21st in rushing, but Chris Ivory scored six of his ten rushing touchdowns in the red zone.

What happens when you compare QB completion percentage from inside the red zone to outside of it? This table shows the steep drop for Wilson once Seattle reaches the 20-yard line.

Note: To qualify for this list, I included all quarterbacks who had thrown at least 200 red zone passes since 2012, so Derek Carr (200 passes) meets the minimum standard. Robert Griffin III (149 passes) would not meet the standard, and obviously neither would QBs like Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, or Dak Prescott.

Wilson has the largest discrepancy of any qualified QB in the NFL, and it’s actually not particularly close. Cam Newton is the only sub-50% red zone passer, but he’s also not very accurate outside the red zone, so he’s outside the top-five in percentage differential.

On the plus side of otherwise unflattering numbers, about 72% of Wilson’s completed red zone passes have gone for first downs and/or touchdowns, which is one of the most efficient rates in the NFL.

Another interesting reveal over the last five seasons is Wilson’s sack total. His 2013 campaign (behind the worst pass-blocking unit by DVOA) marked the first time since Matt Cassel in 2008 that any QB had incurred ten red zone sacks in a single season. Despite being 15th in total attempts, Wilson has been sacked a whopping 29 times in the red zone since 2012, which is the most in the league. Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees are respectively at 28 and 25 in the same span, and they’ve each thrown well over 100 more passes than Wilson. This brings us to the final question.

Is it the offensive line?

No tables or statistics for this one, just this GIF, which is all that’s really needed.

Is it all of the above?

Probably. There’s no real clear-cut answer or easy-fix for the Seahawks’ red zone offense. This is purely conjecture on my part, but I do think Wilson’s game is not meant for condensed fields ... which is to say, his ability to extend plays and make something happen while scrambling works best when he has more room to operate. Basically, if you’re expecting him to be like Aaron Rodgers, don’t count on it.

It would take me ages to comb through the tape of Wilson’s red zone throws to determine what percentage of his incomplete passes are throwaways,either through resulting pressure or simply no one getting open, but one play that really frustrated me was the 3rd-and-goal failure against Arizona.

Seattle keeps Jimmy Graham in as a blocker (always the ideal scenario when you’re at the goal line), and Bevell dials up a trips left formation. Russell rolls out after receiving the shotgun snap. Doug Baldwin is the obvious choice here, and he runs a pattern out in the flat. Paul Richardson runs towards the back corner of the end zone, with cornerback Brandon Williams in coverage. Williams’ back is facing Baldwin, so he has no chance of jumping on Doug’s route. Jermaine Kearse doesn’t really run a meaningful route but does take Patrick Peterson with him, leaving Baldwin with 1-on-1 coverage against Justin Bethel in the flat. It’s designed to clear some space for Baldwin to maneuver, and so far, so good. Baldwin has outside leverage on Bethel with plenty of room along the sidelines, so it’s Wilson’s job to throw to Doug’s outside shoulder, and you’ve got yourself a touchdown.

Here’s what the play looks like right at the point where Wilson cocks his arm.

And here’s the still shot when he pulls the ball down.

The ONLY thing I can imagine scaring Wilson away here is underneath linebacker Kevin Minter possibly jumping the route, but there’s enough space towards the sidelines for Wilson to get the ball to Baldwin and leave Minter unable to cover that much ground for such a short throw.

Sure enough, Chandler Jones easily gets past George Fant, Thomas Rawls’ attempt to chip Jones is completely ineffective, Graham is beaten by Josh Mauro, so Wilson has literally no Seahawks on the right side of the field to throw to, and is forced to throw the ball away. I thought for sure that Jermaine Kearse was credited as being the intended receiver on this one, but the stat sheet just says it was an incomplete pass.

I feel like the non-throw to Baldwin combined with the ensuing play’s sack is the perfect sequence to illustrate my feelings about the state of the red zone offense. Wilson can’t be hesitant and disrupting timing patterns, Bevell shouldn’t be using one of the best pass-catching TEs in the NFL solely as a blocker on a passing play, and this offensive line has a long long long way to go to be even serviceable.

The Seahawks offense has plenty to work on in the offseason, and improvement in the red zone absolutely must be one of the top priorities.

(All statistics were compiled through Pro Football Reference)