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Sunday’s Seahawks’ game was a weather-induced mess. The top six plays below include two Russell Wilson interceptions, a fumble on a botched handoff, and two missed field goals. For this week I’m going to list plays slightly out of order so I can group similar plays together.
For an overview of EPA and this series, see my intro article here. Onto the plays:
Group 1: Adventures on 3rd down
I included 12 plays this week and grouped all these plays together because there are so many similar plays. Here are four 3rd down attempts, all in the second half, with three of them failing. These are the little plays that play an underrated role in deciding the game.
#12. Q4 3-1 SEA 41: (8:34) Thomas Rawls right end to SEA 41 for no gain (Josh Norman).
EPA:1.93. Score before play: SEA8, WAS10. SEA WP change: 48-> 40. TD% before: 39. TD% after: 26
On the 3rd and 1 Norman tackle of Rawls, Britt & Pocic split and the defender has a massive path to Rawls pic.twitter.com/GxO2IRZ93e
— Ben Baldwin (@guga31bb) November 7, 2017
1. If only SEA had a QB who was a rushing threat so they could do shotgun+RO in short yardage
— Ben Baldwin (@guga31bb) November 7, 2017
2. Why put so many players at LOS
3. Rawls.... https://t.co/zKcjLtP5fX
#11. Q3 3-3 SEA 32: (13:44) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to Luke Willson.
EPA:1.96. Score before play: SEA2, WAS7. SEA WP change: 34-> 27. TD% before: 34. TD% after: 24
Another failed 3rd down, on the deep shot to Luke Willson, McEvoy was wide open but Wilson had already felt pressure pic.twitter.com/zbmRamA2oi
— Ben Baldwin (@guga31bb) November 7, 2017
#9. Q3 3-7 SEA 21: (9:18) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short middle to Jimmy Graham to SEA 32 for 11 yards.
EPA:2.59. Score before play: SEA2, WAS10. SEA WP change: 19-> 26. TD% before: 25. TD% after: 38
A conversion that looked so easy that one might wonder why it doesn’t happen like this more often.
#8. Q3 3-14 MID 50: (1:29) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to J.Graham. PENALTY on SEA- Justin Britt, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at 50.
EPA:2.96. Score before play: SEA2, WAS10. SEA WP change: 24-> 16. TD% before: 30. TD% after: 16
Another failed 3rd down- here blitz catches Seattle completely off guard pic.twitter.com/WvgX3xcRnv
— Ben Baldwin (@guga31bb) November 7, 2017
Group 2: Sometimes the Seahawks score touchdowns
#10. Q4 2-4 WAS 10: (11:53) R.Wilson pass short left to L.Willson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
EPA:2.52. Score before play: SEA2, WAS10. SEA WP change: 34-> 44. TD% before: 50. TD% after: 100
Not sure if this was a coverage breakdown or Seattle had the right play call for Washington’s defense, but watch how far #53 has to run to get to Willson.
#4. Q4 1-10 WAS 30: (1:40) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass deep right to Doug Baldwin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
EPA:4.09. Score before play: SEA8, WAS10. SEA WP change: 61-> 88. TD% before: 29. TD% after: 100
While Seattle’s win probability changed from 61% to 88%, it would have been 99% if Baldwin had just given himself up at the 1 yard line. Great release off the line from Baldwin.
Group 3: Adventures in field goal kicking
For a breakdown of Blair Walsh’s 3 misses on Sunday, see Sean Clement’s piece here. Let’s pause for a moment to appreciate two missed field goals being in the top 6 EPA plays of the game. And there was another one, too!
#6. Q2 4-17 WAS 21: (9:42) B.Walsh 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left.
EPA:3.65. Score before play: SEA2, WAS0. SEA WP change: 62-> 54. TD% before: 3. TD% after: 18
#5. Q1 4-7 WAS 26: (3:50) B.Walsh 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left.
EPA:3.76. Score before play: SEA2, WAS0. SEA WP change: 61-> 52. TD% before: 4. TD% after: 19
Group 4: The biggest plays in the game
#7. Q4 1-10 SEA 39: (1:24) (Shotgun) Kirk Cousins pass deep left to Josh Doctson to SEA 1 for 38 yards.
EPA:3.39. Score before play: WAS10, SEA14. SEA WP change: 62-> 21. TD% before: 25. TD% after: 80
And the Doctson play- I don't think Earl would have gotten to this either pic.twitter.com/klnDwDB9wA
— Ben Baldwin (@guga31bb) November 7, 2017
#3. Q1 3-4 WAS 49: (:29) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short middle intended for D.Baldwin INTERCEPTED by Kendall Fuller at WAS 43. K.Fuller to WAS 43 for no gain.
EPA:4.70. Score before play: SEA2, WAS0. SEA WP change: 61-> 51. TD% before: 38. TD% after: 15
This was Wilson's first interception- incredible break by Fuller pic.twitter.com/LiQmakc97Y
— Ben Baldwin (@guga31bb) November 8, 2017
#2. Q3 2-7 SEA 49: (5:56) R.Wilson pass short left intended for D.Baldwin INTERCEPTED by Will Compton at WAS 44. W.Compton to WAS 46 for 2 yards.
EPA:5.28. Score before play: SEA2, WAS10. SEA WP change: 29-> 16. TD% before: 42. TD% after: 14
2nd interception, Russ, wyd pic.twitter.com/t47ORxGhvv
— Ben Baldwin (@guga31bb) November 8, 2017
#1. Q1 1-10 WAS 47: (8:26) K.Cousins FUMBLES (Aborted) at WAS 47, RECOVERED by SEA- Nazair Jones at WAS 42. N.Jones to WAS 42 for no gain.
EPA:6.30. Score before play: WAS0, SEA0. SEA WP change: 42-> 60. TD% before: 45. TD% after: 10
Concluding thoughts
Despite playing a miserable game, the Seahawks had the game won if Baldwin hadn’t gone into the end zone on his touchdown. However, they gave the ball back to Kirk Cousins with 90 seconds and two timeouts and he made them pay. Hopefully facing Drew Stanton will be less of a challenge.