Sunday’s Seahawks-Jaguars game was a tale of two halves. In the first half, only one play had an EPA of greater than 3 points as the first half ended with a 3-0 score. At halftime, I was anticipating a very boring write-up of this game. In the second half, by contrast, there were 6 plays with expected points changes exceeding than 3 points. The top eight EPA plays includes five touchdowns, one interception, and two Jacksonville special teams plays (one positive and one negative), with all but one of the top eight coming in the second half.
For an overview of EPA and this series, see my intro article here. Onto the plays:
#10. Q3 2-12 SEA 45: (9:45) (Shotgun) Russell Wilson pass deep left to Doug Baldwin ran ob at JAX 12 for 43 yards.
EPA:2.72. Score before play: SEA0, JAX10. SEA WP change: 22-> 30. TD% before: 38. TD% after: 54
Somehow the Jaguars end up with a linebacker trying to cover Baldwin 40 yards downfield. He does a passable job, but it’s a perfect throw and catch.
#9. Q1 1-10 JAX 21: (9:07) Chris Ivory right end to SEA 45 for 34 yards.
EPA:2.80. Score before play: JAX0, SEA0. SEA WP change: 49-> 41. TD% before: 32. TD% after: 48
Gotta wrap up, Earl.
#8. Q3 2-9 SEA 18: (12:07) (Shotgun) Blake Bortles pass deep right to Dede Westbrook for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
EPA:2.94. Score before play: JAX3, SEA0. SEA WP change: 27-> 19. TD% before: 46. TD% after: 100
Not sure whose fault this was. Nice anticipation throw by Bortles.
#7. Q3 2-11 JAX 26: (7:38) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass deep right to D.Baldwin for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
EPA:3.25. Score before play: SEA3, JAX10. SEA WP change: 37-> 48. TD% before: 45. TD% after: 100
#6. Q2 1-10 JAX 45: (6:17) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass deep middle intended for D.Baldwin INTERCEPTED by Jalen Ramsey at JAX -9. Touchback.
EPA:3.46. Score before play: SEA0, JAX3. SEA WP change: 48-> 38. TD% before: 41. TD% after: 17
Baldwin had inside leverage on Ramsey but unfortunately fell down and gave up an easy interception. Only one of Wilson’s three interceptions show up in this list because the other two were on 2nd and 20 (thrown 42 yards down the field) and 2nd and 17 (thrown 55 yards down the field).
#5. Q3 4-6 SEA 29: (5:58) Jon Ryan punts 44 yards to JAX 27. Jaydon Mickens to SEA 1 for 72 yards.
EPA:4.72. Score before play: SEA10, JAX17. SEA WP change: 19-> 11. TD% before: 21. TD% after: 1
Justin Coleman (the first Seahawk to arrive) took a brutal angle to Mickens, making this possible.
#4. Q4 1-10 SEA 39: (10:00) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass deep middle to Paul Richardson for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
EPA:4.86. Score before play: SEA10, JAX27. SEA WP change: 6-> 12. TD% before: 38. TD% after: 100
Great job by Wilson stepping up in the pocket. The other angle:
#3. Q3 -0 SEA 35: Blair Walsh kicks 64 yards from SEA 35 to JAX 1. Corey Grant to JAX 17 for 16 yards. FUMBLES (Terence Garvin), RECOVERED by SEA- Tedric Thompson at JAX 25.
EPA:5.19. Score before play: JAX10, SEA3. SEA WP change: 24-> 39. TD% before: 35. TD% after: 6
#2. Q3 1-10 JAX 25: (7:32) (Shotgun) B.Bortles pass deep middle to Keelan Cole for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
EPA:6.06. Score before play: JAX10, SEA10. SEA WP change: 49-> 27. TD% before: 35. TD% after: 100
I’m guessing Shaq Griffin was the culprit on this one.
#1. Q4 2-5 SEA 26: (3:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) R.Wilson pass deep right to Tyler Lockett for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
EPA:6.45. Score before play: SEA17, JAX30. SEA WP change: 4-> 17. TD% before: 20. TD% after: 100
The Seahawks’ next two games are against the Eagles (home) and Jaguars (away). Playing with the New York Times playoff simulator, here are Seattle’s playoff odds by record in the next two games: 2-0 (86 percent), 1-1 (between 53 percent, if they beat the Jaguars and lose to the Eagles, and 64 percent, if they beat the Eagles and lose to Jaguars), 0-2 (30 percent).
After beating the Eagles and losing to the Jaguars, Seattle’s playoff odds sit at 55 percent. This is lower than forecasted because a lot of bad things happened (like the Falcons beating the Saints and the Panthers beating the Vikings).
It all comes down to this. The Rams come to Seattle for a game that will put the winner firmly in the driver’s seat for the division title. If the Seahawks lose this game, they probably won’t even make the playoffs:
- If the Seahawks beat the Rams, they will have an 80 percent chance of making the playoffs and 67 percent chance of winning the division
- If the Seahawks lose to the Rams, they will have a 26 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 6 percent chance of winning the division