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Sunday’s Seahawks-Rams game was a game that happened. The Rams took such a huge lead early in the game that most of it didn’t matter (as measured by change in win probability). I initially included replays of plays that happened when the Seahawks had at least a 10 percent chance of winning the game, but that left a grand total of three plays so I added a couple other replays. Five of the top 10 plays below changed Seattle’s win probability from 0% to 0%. Another play reduced Seattle’s win probability to 1% and yet another reduced it to 5%.
For an overview of EPA and this series, see my intro article here. Onto the plays:
#10. Q2 2-7 SEA 16: (8:53) Jared Goff pass short right to Cooper Kupp to SEA 1 for 15 yards.
EPA:2.33. Score before play: LA13, SEA0. SEA WP change: 8-> 5. TD% before: 47. TD% after: 90
#9. Q2 4-1 SEA 24: (11:45) J.Goff pass short right intended for Gerald Everett INTERCEPTED by Michael Wilhoite.
EPA:2.35. Score before play: LA13, SEA0. SEA WP change: 10-> 12. TD% before: 22. TD% after: 26
#8. Q3 3-4 SEA 29: (2:47) (Shotgun) Russell Wilson scrambles left tackle to SEA 44 for 15 yards (J.Johnson).
EPA:2.40. Score before play: SEA0, LA40. SEA WP change: 0-> 0. TD% before: 31. TD% after: 44
#7. Q4 4-5 SEA 32: (5:45) (Shotgun) Sean Mannion pass short right to Derek Carrier to SEA 27 for 5 yards. Seattle challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED.
EPA:2.52. Score before play: LA42, SEA7. SEA WP change: 0-> 0. TD% before: 15. TD% after: 15
#6. Q1 3-5 SEA 21: (13:46) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short middle to Tanner McEvoy to SEA 43 for 22 yards. FUMBLES (Lamarcus Joyner), RECOVERED by LA- Alec Ogletree at SEA 40.
EPA:2.67. Score before play: SEA0, LA0. SEA WP change: 45-> 41. TD% before: 26. TD% after: 10
This was arguably the play of the game and set the tone for what would follow. Great third down conversion from Wilson and very costly fumble from McEvoy.
#5. Q3 1-10 LA 26: (1:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) R.Wilson pass deep middle to Luke Willson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
EPA:2.75. Score before play: SEA0, LA40. SEA WP change: 0-> 0. TD% before: 52. TD% after: 100
Hey, the Seahawks scored!
#4. Q1 4-20 SEA 10: (6:17) Jon Ryan punts 44 yards to LA 46. Pharoh Cooper to SEA 1 for 53 yards.
EPA:3.21. Score before play: SEA0, LA6. SEA WP change: 21-> 14. TD% before: 13. TD% after: 1
Not that it mattered to the outcome of the game, but watching a big punt return happen due to Justin Coleman getting shoved in the back after a season of ticky-tack special teams flags against the Seahawks is pretty annoying.
#3. Q3 3-10 SEA 14: (7:10) (Shotgun) J.Goff pass short right to Todd Gurley for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
EPA:3.58. Score before play: LA34, SEA0. SEA WP change: 0-> 0. TD% before: 32. TD% after: 100
#2. Q2 3-20 LA 43: (:37) T.Gurley left tackle for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
EPA:6.22. Score before play: LA27, SEA0. SEA WP change: 0-> 0. TD% before: 10. TD% after: 100
Bobby Wagner looks very slow here.
Going back to 1994, just one run play of 3rd and 20+ has resulted in a touchdown (Tim Tebow vs. Raiders in 2010). So, that's about how bad that play was for the Seahawks
— Danny Kelly (@DannyBKelly) December 17, 2017
#1. Q2 1-10 LA 49: (7:35) R.Wilson sacked at SEA 38 for -13 yards. FUMBLES (Robert Quinn), RECOVERED by LA- Morgan Fox at SEA 39.
EPA:6.23. Score before play: SEA0, LA20. SEA WP change: 8-> 1. TD% before: 41. TD% after: 8
Going forward
Seattle’s playoff odds currently sit at 10%. If they win out, which is a big “if” at this point, that jumps to 34%. If you’re interested in seeing how the Seahawks can make the playoffs, check out Mookie’s piece here. If Seattle does miss the playoffs, the 2nd and 3rd round picks that they traded away become that much more valuable.