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EPA Replay, Week 16: The 10 biggest plays from the Seahawks’ victory over the Cowboys

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NFL: Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday’s Seattle Seahawks-Dallas Cowboys game was a struggle. Seattle ran 54 plays for 2.5 yards per play and, thanks to three Dallas turnovers and two missed field goals, still won by two scores. In the top 10 EPA plays list below, the top four plays are negative plays for the Cowboys, including the three turnovers and a missed field goal.

For an overview of EPA and this series, see my intro article here. Onto the plays:

#10. Q2 3-5 SEA 30: (5:05) (Shotgun) Russell Wilson sacked at SEA 8 for -22 yards (Demarcus Lawrence).

EPA:2.21. Score before play: SEA0, DAL6. SEA WP change: 29-> 22. TD% before: 21. TD% after: 8

#9. Q2 2-3 DAL 3: (1:42) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short left to Jimmy Graham for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

EPA:2.31. Score before play: SEA0, DAL6. SEA WP change: 46-> 53. TD% before: 54. TD% after: 100

Watch Seattle motion Graham across the formation, which ends up leaving the Dallas defender on an island.

#8. Q3 3-9 SEA 22: (2:31) (Shotgun) R.Wilson scrambles right end pushed ob at SEA 32 for 10 yards.

EPA:2.58. Score before play: SEA14, DAL12. SEA WP change: 48-> 57. TD% before: 24. TD% after: 38

Arguably the play of the game. Seattle would go on to score a TD for the final margin.

#7. Q1 3-7 DAL 21: (8:36) (Shotgun) Dak Prescott pass short right to Terrance Williams to DAL 32 for 11 yards.

EPA:2.59. Score before play: DAL0, SEA0. SEA WP change: 54-> 46. TD% before: 25. TD% after: 38

Byron Maxwell gives up the inside pretty easily here.

#6. Q3 3-7 SEA 35: (:44) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass deep left to Doug Baldwin to DAL 45 for 20 yards.

EPA:2.89. Score before play: SEA14, DAL12. SEA WP change: 53-> 63. TD% before: 30. TD% after: 47

#5. Q3 2-9 DAL 36: (10:45) (Shotgun) D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to Cole Beasley. PENALTY on SEA- Justin Coleman, Defensive Pass Interference, 43 yards, enforced at DAL 36.

EPA:3.14. Score before play: DAL9, SEA14. SEA WP change: 60-> 50. TD% before: 35. TD% after: 53

#4. Q4 4-16 SEA 16: (5:43) (Field Goal formation) Dan Bailey 34 yard field goal is No Good.

EPA:3.47. Score before play: DAL12, SEA21. SEA WP change: 76-> 86. TD% before: 1. TD% after: 16

#3. Q2 1-10 DAL 35: (4:10) D.Prescott pass short right to Dez Bryant to DAL 43 for 8 yards (Byron Maxwell). FUMBLES (B.Maxwell), RECOVERED by SEA- K.J. Wright at DAL 43.

EPA:4.17. Score before play: DAL6, SEA0. SEA WP change: 25-> 38. TD% before: 27. TD% after: 7

The sideline reaction on this is great.

#2. Q3 2-12 SEA 25: (3:32) (Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short middle intended for D.Bryant INTERCEPTED by K.Wright at SEA 20.

EPA:4.41. Score before play: DAL12, SEA14. SEA WP change: 43-> 53. TD% before: 45. TD% after: 26

Not a great pass but Dez probably should have caught it.

#1. Q3 2-7 DAL 29: (11:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) D.Prescott pass short left intended for Ezekiel Elliott INTERCEPTED by J.Coleman at DAL 30. J.Coleman for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

EPA:7.69. Score before play: DAL9, SEA7. SEA WP change: 43-> 62. TD% before: 33. TD% after: 0

And then there was one

One game left. If the Carolina Panthers beat the Atlanta Falcons (which 538 says has a 39 percent chance) and the Seahawks beat the Arizona Cardinals (75 percent), then against all odds, the Seahawks will go to the playoffs. Here’s hoping that next week will not be the final installment of this series for the 2017 season.