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EPA Replay, Week 13: The 10 biggest plays from the Seahawks’ victory over the Eagles

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NFL: Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday’s Seattle Seahawks-Philadephia Eagles game was the second time Seattle has held a top-7 DVOA offense to exactly 10 points. The home team’s defense shows up in the top 10 plays below, with two 4th down stops and a Sheldon Richardson forced fumble at the goal line. The full Russell Wilson Experience is also on display, with the top 10 plays including a Wilson bomb to Doug Baldwin, an open-field pitch to Mike Davis, and a 16-yard intentional grounding penalty. Rather than wait until the coaches film comes out and writing this on Wednesday, I’m going to include some clips from the broadcast so I can get this week’s out sooner.

For an overview of EPA and this series, see my intro article here. Onto the plays:

#10. Q4 3-8 SEA 42: (10:06) (Shotgun) R.Wilson right guard to SEA 48 for 6 yards. Lateral to M.Davis to PHI 35 for 17 yards.

EPA: 2.71. Score before play: SEA17, PHI10. SEA WP change: 80-> 88. TD% before: 29. TD% after: 48

Discussion here.

#9. Q4 4-6 PHI 25: (2:16) (Shotgun) Carson Wentz pass short left to Corey Clement pushed ob at PHI 48 for 23 yards.

EPA: 2.73. Score before play: PHI10, SEA24. SEA WP change: 99-> 98. TD% before: 10. TD% after: 29

The game was already over by this point, but the Eagles finally convert on a 4th down.

#8. Q4 4-6 SEA 40: (5:48) (Shotgun) C.Wentz pass incomplete short middle to Trey Burton.

EPA: 2.82. Score before play: PHI10, SEA24. SEA WP change: 94-> 97. TD% before: 16. TD% after: 12

The play that basically ended the game. All hail Bobby Wagner.

#7. Q4 2-11 PHI 15: (7:33) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short left to J.D. McKissic for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

EPA: 3.03. Score before play: SEA17, PHI10. SEA WP change: 89-> 94. TD% before: 44. TD% after: 100

#6. Q3 3-6 PHI 37: (1:09) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on SEA-R.Wilson, Intentional Grounding, 16 yards, enforced at PHI 37.

EPA: 3.09. Score before play: SEA17, PHI3. SEA WP change: 94-> 90. TD% before: 37. TD% after: 17

This was a mistake from Wilson, who could have just dumped the ball at the feet of Davis, but the Eagles’ pass rushers weren’t exactly giving him a lot of time to think about it.

#5. Q3 4-3 SEA 25: (3:55) (Shotgun) C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to Kenjon Barner.

EPA: 3.19. Score before play: PHI3, SEA17. SEA WP change: 87-> 91. TD% before: 18. TD% after: 24

#4. Q4 3-14 SEA 27: (12:15) (Shotgun) C.Wentz pass deep left to Nelson Agholor for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

EPA: 4.15. Score before play: PHI3, SEA17. SEA WP change: 88-> 78. TD% before: 31. TD% after: 100

#3. Q3 3-10 PHI 48: (6:57) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass deep left to D.Baldwin pushed ob at PHI 1 for 47 yards.

EPA: 4.83. Score before play: SEA10, PHI3. SEA WP change: 79-> 89. TD% before: 33. TD% after: 91

See Samuel Gold’s writeup here.

#2. Q3 2-6 SEA 6: (9:46) (Shotgun) C.Wentz up the middle to SEA 1 for 5 yards. FUMBLES (S.Richardson), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback.

EPA:5.55. Score before play: PHI3, SEA10. SEA WP change: 56-> 74. TD% before: 60. TD% after: 27

#1. Q4 3-13 PHI 16: (15:00) (Shotgun) C.Wentz pass deep right to N.Agholor pushed ob at SEA 33 for 51 yards.

EPA: 5.55. Score before play: PHI3, SEA17. SEA WP change: 93-> 85. TD% before: 19. TD% after: 51

Looking forward

The Seahawks’ brutal three-game tour of division leaders continues onward as they fly to Florida to take on the Jaguars this weekend before returning home for a pivotal NFC West showdown against the Rams. While the Seahawks have almost no shot at a 1st round bye in the playoffs, the game against the Jaguars is the difference between a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs in case of a win, and 60 percent in case of a loss.