Seahawks playoff odds: Loss to Jags could hurt, but not crush Seattle’s chances at NFC West title

The Seattle Seahawks stand at 8-4, which is typically a good enough record through 12 games to assume a postseason appearance. Of course, Seattle does not have an easy schedule ahead, facing the Jaguars in Jacksonville on Sunday and then hosting the 9-3 LA Rams in Week 15.

Per FiveThirtyEight, the Seahawks are currently 80% to make the playoffs and 46% to take the NFC West away from the first place Rams. Should Seattle beat the Jags this weekend, their playoff odds increase to 92% and their division title hopes rise to 61%, but that’s before knowing the result of the Eagles-Rams game going on at the same time this weekend.

Should the Rams win, Seattle’s playoffs odds remain at 91% and their NFC West hopes would stand at 47%. Should the Rams lose though, and the Seahawks’ chances of winning the division increase to 76%, with Seattle hosting LA the following Sunday.

The funny thing is that the Seahawks chances at a bye week actually increase if Los Angeles beats Philly. That’s because Seattle would pull to within one game of the Eagles with three games left to go and the head-to-head tiebreaker in their pocket. Since the Seahawks host the Rams in Week 15, it gives them an opportunity to be in first place in the division no matter what the result of Week 14 is between LA and Philadelphia, should Seattle beat Jacksonville.

But if the Seahawks lose to the Jaguars, their playoff odds drop to 62% and their chances at the division drop to 15% if the Rams win. There’s still a good chance that Seattle will get into the postseason for the seventh time in eight years under Pete Carroll, but to win the division, they’ll probably need to get a win this Sunday. Unless LA loses to the 10-2 Eagles, in which case it’s basically still a coinflip.

So root root root for the Seahawks as usual, but the result of Philly-LA has pros and cons to both sides.