Seahawks’ issue in 2016 wasn’t number of turnovers, but context of when they gave the ball away

The Seattle Seahawks defense had a major problem with turnovers for the whole of the 2016 season, setting a franchise-low with just 19 takeaways. Those woes worsened following the season-ending injury to Earl Thomas, after which the Seahawks didn’t record a single interception for the final five games of the year.

While Seattle finished 22nd in takeaways, the offense finished in the exact same spot for total giveaways. Half of Seattle’s 18 turnovers came in the disastrous outings against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers. Pete Carroll has long emphasized taking care of the ball, and under Russell Wilson, the Seahawks have never had more than 19 giveaways in any single regular season.

What makes the 2016 team stand out compared to past seasons is not the number of turnovers, but how many points were scored off of them by Seahawks opponents. Seven opposition possessions went for touchdowns, while two resulted in field gulls field goals.

In total, Seattle allowed 56 points off of turnovers, which is the most under Russell Wilson and the most they’ve given up since allowing 86 in 2010. The previous high in the Wilson era was 49 in 2012, also off of 18 turnovers. It must be noted that 21 of the 56 points allowed by the Seahawks came in the Packers debacle, in which they committed an unfathomable six turnovers. For perspective, the Seahawks only allowed two touchdowns off turnovers for the whole of the 2015 regular season, and both were defensive scores.

This isn’t necessarily any reason for panic, as the Seahawks were 16th in the NFL in points allowed per giveaway in the regular season.

While they were firmly middle-of-the-pack among all NFL teams in this category, the 2016 Seahawks were incredibly worse than the terrible 2010 team in terms of turnovers hurting them on the scoreboard.

Peeling back the onion even further, just over 60% (!!!) of Seattle’s turnovers last season led to their opponents starting their ensuing drives in Seahawks territory.

To summarize: Seattle didn’t turn the ball over very often. Yay! When they did give it away, it disproportionately led to short fields for the opposition. Bad! Those opponents scored a touchdown off of those short fields 7-of-11 times, the second-highest conversion rate behind the Atlanta Falcons (2-of-2). Also bad!

I’m willing to write off 2016’s numbers as anomalous and not a disturbing trend that should concern the team. They’ve consistently proven in previous seasons that they can take care of the ball and minimize the damage done when they do turn it over.

With that said, these are the little things (speaking of which, shameless plug for John Fraley’s great new offseason series) that change games, and for the Seahawks, they didn’t win these mini-battles nearly enough. Wilson’s second quarter interception against the Saints turned a 14-6 game into a 14-13 halftime scoreline. His forced pick on a 3rd and 19 against the Panthers led not only to Carolina’s only touchdown, but far more importantly Earl Thomas’ leg break just three plays later. The completely botched exchange between Wilson and Marcel Reece against the Cardinals gave them an early 7-0 lead, and forced Seattle to play from behind for the rest of the afternoon. Even for turnovers that didn’t lead to opposition points, all three of Seattle’s giveaways against the Buccaneers occurred inside Tampa Bay’s 30, which killed any chance of a comeback. Christine Michael’s fumble derailed a late comeback against the Rams in week 2. These are just some of the moments that proved to be critical in Seattle’s failure to get themselves a first-round bye.

(All stats compiled through Sporting Charts and Pro Football Reference)