On Monday, I posted an article about why I believed the Seattle Seahawks were poised to trade back in the first round once again. The Seahawks have either traded down or out of the first round entirely in each of the last five years, with two of those picks being dealt for players (Percy Harvin, Jimmy Graham), twice moving down and staying in the first, and once moving down from pick 32 to pick 40 and then to pick 45. Of course, in true fashion, a commenter did a better job of articulating what a trade down could look like than I did.
With his permission to repost this, here’s RedHawk87’s description of eight potential trade down scenarios based on Jimmy Johnson’s pick value chart:
The following would be trades that are within +/- 10 of equivalent value. Ranked in what I consider likelihood.
1. SEA – CLE trade: Pick 26 (700) for Picks 33, 108, 175, 181 (698.4).
They get 3 first rounders, with two more in the first half of day 2, and we get three more day 3 picks. I would consider this the most likely, and imagine in their position that the Browns want to get as many players on 5 year rookie contracts as possible for going forward. They could even plan on this and trade back from 12 to get an additional day 2 pick.
2. SEA – PIT trade: Pick 26 (700) for 30 and 105 (704).
Very similar trade to the Broncos trade last year. Could be for either defensive player or a QB to train under Roethlisberger for a year. Lots of players I could see the Steelers trying to grab instead of SEA, GB, KCC, and DAL. Steelers would only sacrifice a 3rd round comp pick, so not hindered by this trade.
3. SEA – SF trade: Picks 26 and 90 (840) for 34, 66, and 161 (847).
Seattle does improve a 3rd round pick while also gaining a pick that splits up their huge day 3 gap.
4. SEA – GB trade: Pick 26 (700) for 29, 134, and 182 (697.6).
Equivalent trade value, but would have to be for a really talented defensive player that dropped, as that is a steep cost for only moving up a few spots.
5. SEA – CHI trade: Pick 26 and 102 (792) for 36 and 67 (795).
Chicago doesn’t sacrifice any quantity of picks, just positioning of round 3 pick. Not particularly attractive deal for Seattle though.
6. SEA – DAL trade: Pick 26 (700) for 28 and 133 (699.5)
Dallas loses a 4th rounder to grab a player who has fallen and they think either the Seahawks or Chiefs will try to grab them.
7. SEA – KCC trade: Pick 26 (700) for 27 and 180 (699.4).
Why KCC would want to move just one position, I dunno, but that’s what it’d cost.
8. The NYJ would really cripple themselves if they traded, as they currently do not have the capitol to move up that far. The closest they could do would be Seahawks trading 26 and 90 (840) for 39, 70, and 107 (830). I don’t really see this happening.
In the scenario with the Browns, Seattle would recoup a fourth round pick that is much better than the one they dealt to the Patriots last year in the move to acquire Quentin Jefferson, plus two picks at the end of round five, which is where the NFL took away their pick for violating practice rules. It almost makes too much sense: Cleveland would desire a player on a first round contract (where they are guaranteed to keep a player for five years if they want to) whereas the Seahawks may rather save a few hundred thousands dollars and get a guy at pick 33. The Browns need the most premier player they can get and at pick 26, if Haason Reddick, Jabrill Peppers, Obi Melifonwu, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, Reuben Foster, David Njoku, Pat Mahomes, Mitch Trubisky, DeShone Kizer, Gareon Conley, Budda Baker — if someone is falling on draft day like one or 10 of these guys, and certainly some of them will be available, it could be the best spot for Cleveland to trade up to. And Seattle may be more willing to move down than the Houston Texans at 25, who might need to draft that BPA quarterback.
That may actually be a better deal for the Seahawks than one that keeps them in the first round, plus it gives them three additional day three picks. I mean, Seattle, go ahead and pick up that phone right now. No need to wait until April 27.