FanPost

Pete Carroll's Seahawks Are Not a Run-First Team, And For Good Reason

In October 2016, Pete Carroll held a radio press conference on 710 ESPN Seattle in which Brock Huard began a question that assumed the Seahawks were striving to be a "run-first" team. Pete Carroll interrupted him mid-question to clarify: "I’ve never said that. I’ve said we’re a balanced team. That’s what we are, a balanced team."

"Here’s the key, when a week ago we were running the football, we had great balance in the numbers and all of that," Carroll said. "This week was harder, and we had the opportunity to throw the football and thought we could protect, do a good job there, and we did. That’s what balance presents for this team, you have a chance to go where you need to go to win the game. Without that, if you’re committed one way or the other—what if the wind’s blowing, what if it’s storming and you can’t throw? That’s the whole point is to be ready for all situations."

In other words, Pete would prefer to go with whatever is working better at the time. The Seahawks will be run-first if the run game is working better, and pass-first if the pass game is working better.

But doesn't this defy the conventional theory that a strong run game can set up the passing game? And conversely that the passing game can set up the running game? I would say yes it does, but in actuality that theory is not strongly supported by historical statistics.

Hawkblogger's Nathan Ernst recently explored the topic and summarized his analysis by stating, "There is very little to show that a team’s success in the running game influences QB play. And if running doesn’t help you pass, then running does very little to help you win. The conventional wisdom that teams should establish the running game or maintain some kind run/pass balance does not appear to be supported by evidence."

Mixpanel also looked into this earlier this year and came to a similar conclusion: "Good plays tend to follow other good plays; bad plays tend to follow bad plays. The run sets up the pass no better than the pass sets up the pass. (snip) Nothing we found in the data suggests that a strong running game translates to improvements in the passing game."

So not only are the Seahawks not a "run-first" team (and never have been), they shouldn't be. Pete Carroll's got it right: We should have a balanced attack in order to be ready to exploit any given opponent's weakness.

The state of our offense has led to some gnashing of teeth lately, and it's not all unjustified. We're certainly still hoping to see a much-improved run game today against the 49ers. But not necessarily to open up the passing game; rather, to ensure we have that dagger in our arsenal for whenever we need it.

Go Hawks!