Weekly Seahawks DVOA Rankings Update

Hi all, I’ve been checking DVOA to stay sane, and thought I'd share. For those who don’t know, it’s a complex rating of football teams that takes into account everything from individual plays to domed stadiums to strength of schedule. It’s as close to an objective power ranking as this mortal world can provide.

The Seahawks remain very highly ranked by DVOA at No. 8, despite their second loss to the Rams, with fairly evenly-matched ratings for our offence and defence (11 and 10, respectively). The disconnect between where the Seahawks sit in popular power rankings (usually between No. 15-20) and DVOA’s sparkling opinion of their play continues.

Why the dissonance? Well, here’s the league by DVOA, sorted into tiers to account for significant drop-offs between teams. I only provide the tier "leader" for the worst half of the league. Brackets indicate negative numbers.

Tier 1

Chiefs – 43.1%

Tier 2

Rams – 32.1%

Tier 3

Chargers – 23.4%
Bears – 22.9%
Steelers – 21.1%

Tier 4

Saints – 18.4%
Ravens – 14.5%

Tier 5

Seahawks – 11.8%
Broncos – 11.6%
Packers – 11.0%
Patriots – 10.2%
Panthers – 9.4%

Tier 6

Texans – 6.4%
Vikings – 3.1%

Tier 7

Colts – 0.9%

Tier 8

Cowboys – (12.2)%

Tier 9

Buccaneers – (23.2)%

Four of our five losses have been close-scoring fights with elite, top-5 teams. Only the Broncos loss appears somewhat heartbreaking in retrospect, and they’re currently considered more or less exactly as competent as Seattle. We don't have a serious problem with our offence, we don't have a serious problem with our defence, we're just a good team that's been forced to play all of the NFL's end bosses one after the other.

It also makes the flow chart for the rest of this season crystal clear. The Chiefs are approaching god-tier dominance, and we can safely mark that down as a loss for now (4-6). The Packers and Panthers are theoretically worse than us, but well within the margin of error that makes both match-ups into nail-biters – the Panthers especially are in flux, having been a top 5 DVOA team until the colossal beatdown by the Steelers this Sunday past. If that was an aberration, they could be one mother of a tough fight. The rest of our games are against teams we should beat handily – Vikings, 49ers x2, Cardinals (8-6).

Beat the Packers and Panthers and we’re 10-6 and likely playoff bound. Lose to either team, and we’re probably going to be cleaning eavestroughs on Sundays in January. The next two games are essentially early elimination games – get hyped and get ready, folks.

Go Hawks.