Seahawks QB Russell Wilson doesn’t prevent sacks with his scrambling

With the firing of longtime offensive line coach Tom Cable, many Seattle Seahawks fans are hoping that the team will be able to better protect quarterback Russell Wilson in 2018 and beyond. Since entering the league in Wilson has been sacked more than any other quarterback in the NFL, and many fans are adamant that that number would be even higher if it weren’t for Wilson’s elusiveness and his legs bailing out the offensive line repeatedly.

But is that true?

Well, let’s take a look. Pro Football Focus is often mocked, largely rightfully so, for their grades, however, they do compile some absolutely fantastic signature stats that are a phenomenal value. In particular, they have data on the number of pressures every single quarterback in the NFL has faced covering the entirety of Wilson’s career. Thus, we can take a look and see how likely Wilson is to be sacked when he’s pressured compared to the NFL averages.

If Wilson is sacked more often when under pressure, then his legs don’t save sacks, they create them. If Wilson is sacked on a lower percentage of plays than other NFL quarterbacks when pressured, then his legs obviously save sacks. But enough with the chit chat, let’s get to the numbers.

This data covering Russell’s entire career makes a pretty compelling case that his legs don’t prevent sacks. He is sacked at almost the exact same rate when pressured as other quarterbacks in the NFL. Now, obviously, if he were under pressure less, he’d be sacked less, but that’s not the point of today’s discussion. Today is only looking at the probability that he will be sacked when he does indeed find himself pressured (because it’s nearly impossible for a quarterback to be sacked when not pressured).

In any case, what we are able to do is look at the rate at which Wilson has been sacked when pressured during his career and compare that to the rate at which league average quarterbacks are sacked when they are pressured. From that point an estimate can be formed on how many sacks were prevented or created by a scrambling quarterback, and the numbers for Wilson’s career are right here.

Adding all those sacks prevented or created together, and we get a -2.9, which is close enough to zero on a six season sample that Wilson probably does neither. In short, while Wilson’s elusiveness certainly prevents sacks on certain plays, over the course of a season his elusiveness does not prevent sacks at a rate significantly better than the elusiveness of other quarterbacks.