So far this offseason I’ve taken a look at the potential contract values that several members of the Seattle Seahawks could command, either in free agency or in contract extensions with the Hawks prior to reaching free agency. So far we’ve taken a look at how much players like Frank Clark could have made if he hit the open market instead of having the franchise tag slapped on him, what Germain Ifedi could be looking at in terms of a salary floor, and what Justin Coleman stands to get in his next contract when free agency opens next week.
In addition, a couple of times this offseason I have touched on what tackle George Fant could command as a free agent on the open market. My first projection was based on the contract Chris Hubbard signed with the Cleveland Browns last offseason, and then later on how the contract signed by Ty Sambrailo with the Atlanta Falcons could impact a Fant offer.
These articles have been meet with great praise from commenters, such as was seen the other day.
Today is Coleman’s turn
Another slow news day for NFL blogs. First it was” Russell May be the next $40-$50M QB”. Then “Frank asking for Mack money” and now “Coleman getting a 3 year $30M contract”. Since throwing ideas around is free (and attracts clicks), we should think about Wagner’s next contract for, let’s say $25M a year for 4 years. Yeah, that should attract some clicks.
Now, if you think that these articles are clickbait, then I’m going to ask that you please stop clicking on my articles. My track record is out there, in writing, and I stand by my predictions. In 2016 I predicted Jeremy Lane would get four years and $25-$26M, and he signed for four years and $23M. In 2017 I was laughed at when I suggested J.R. Sweezy could get $7M per year, and then he went and signed for $6.5M per. In late 2017 I predicted Paul Richardson would sign for $40M over five years, and three and a half months later he signed for $40M over five years.
In short, I know what I’m doing and I stand by both my track record and my predictions, and now in Fant’s case, we have yet another data point to give us a projected contract value.
This is a 3-year, $16.078M extension for an offensive lineman, and is another fairly accurate comp for George Fant by age (1 year difference) and playing time (Seumalo has played 133 more snaps), though Seumalo plays on the interior. https://t.co/5mWeqPV97h— florida john but not a florida john (@SeahawksMachine) March 7, 2019
Most of that is all pretty self explanatory, but just for the sake of updating things, here’s the table comparing playing time and age for each of the comps I have used for Fant so far this offseason.
Table of comps for George Fant
|Age (in first season of contract)||27||27||27||26|
|PFF Grade (season before signing)||73.0||67.5||67.0||62.1|
Obviously, as I point out in my tweet, Seumalo plays on the interior, where linemen have traditionally been paid slightly less than at the tackle position. How much one wants to factor this into any valuation equation is up to the individual creating the projection. However, in this case the data fits in pretty well with the other comps. Hubbard signed for $7.5M, Sambrailo signed for $6M and Seumalo’s extension carries an APY of $5.4M.
As was the case in looking at the Tavon Young comp for Justin Coleman, Seumalo likely took a discount as there was still a year remaining on his rookie contract. That also means that Seumalo did not have the leverage of being able to pit teams against one another on the open market. Thus, the $5.4M valuation should likely be increased by 10-20% depending what kind of additional value one feels should be assigned to tackles over guards.
In any case, with the restricted free agent tender deadline just days away, and teams starting to report how they are tendering their RFAs, it should not be long before we learn whether the Seahawks view Fant as a potential long term option or whether he is expendable.