FanPost

Draft Prediction Round 1


Let me start by saying I love, love, love the draft. I look forward to it every year even more than I do the start of regular season. Specifically, I love predicting what the Seahawks will do. I only predict the rest of the picks so I will know who is likely to still be available when Seattle picks. Since 2010 I have been predicting their picks each year. In each round I make a short list of prospects I believe they covet, regardless of the picks they hold since we all know they tend to trade a lot. So not having a 2nd round pick this year for example, is no guarantee they won't wind up with 3. The players I choose in each round are ranked 1 thru 4. If they wind up only picking once in a given round, I only get credit for nailing the pick if that player was first on my list. If they pick twice, the top 2 players are in play, etc... So when they picked 3 times in the 3rd round in 2016, I had 3 players in play from my list of 4 in that round.

I will spare you most of the details but starting in 2016, I got better results. Ifedi, Procise and Vannett in 2016. Pocic, Griffin and Darboh in 2017. Rasheem Green, Will Dissly, Shaquem Griffin and Michael Dickson in 2018. That's right, I nailed Dickson in the 5th round last year. That felt gratifying. Not looking for brownie points here, and I confess I retired in mid 2017 so have all the time I want to read everything, watch film I can get my hands on, study cap numbers and plan the roster years out like I think a GM might, but I also have no industry experience. Football ended for me when I graduated high school.

Today I offer my thoughts on Round 1, pick 21. Clearly, everybody believes the Hawks will trade down, at least once, and probably all the way to round 2. I agree. But it takes a willing trade partner, and this year may be tough. Not only will teams covet Round 2-3 even more than normal due to depth of D-line and large number of DB's and WR's graded round 2-3, but the Hawks may face a rare round 1 talent falling to them at 21. Somebody who they both covet and grade as a round 1 talent. Who could that be? I would suggest Jerry Tillery, and my justification is as follows. Since arriving in 2010, Caroll/Schneider have been looking in the draft for a long 3-tech, similar to Tony McDaniel who was a key member of the SB team. PFF had him ranked as the 16th best DT at the time. When Malik McDowell was taken in 2017, Schneider was very specific about this very point post-draft. They had their man, or so they thought. I think they are still looking and this year presents another bite at the apple. They brought Rashan Gary in for a visit, and while he is uber athletic, he is smaller and more of a DE prospect who has underachieved in college by most accounts. Instead, consider the similarities between Malik McDowell and Jerry Tillery.

McDowell
Tillery
Height 6' 6" Height 6' 6½"
Weight 295 lbs Weight 295 lbs
Arm Length 34¾" Arm Length 34¼"
Hand Size 10½" Hand Size 10⅝"
40 Yard Dash 4.85s 40 Yard Dash 4.93s
Vertical Jump 28½" Vertical Jump 32"
Broad Jump 112" Broad Jump 115"
3-Cone Drill 7.69s 3-Cone Drill 7.45s
20 Yard Shuttle 4.53s 20 Yard Shuttle 4.33s
Bench Press 23 reps Bench Press 23 reps
Sacks 1.5 Sacks 8
Forced Fumbles 0 Forced Fumbles 3
Solo tackles 20 Solo tackles 18

Tillery may be long gone by 21. PFF has him ranked as the #7 overall prospect, but Draftscout has him #35 and NFL.com #27. He is going on 24 yrs old, about 2 years older than many other prospects. He also had surgery to repair a torn labrum post-combine. Lastly, he did have problems with teammates early in his Notre Dame career and was suspended at least once. He has some Ndamokong Suh nasty being penalized for stepping on opposing players. But he seems to have put that all behind him, and a little nasty is not a bad thing for D-line. Aaron Donald has it. Tony McDaniel himself was terminated from Tennessee prompting him to enter the draft early in 2006, following an assault of another student during pick-up basketball. Serious assault, crushed the guys face. If Seattle cannot trade down and Tillery is available, I won't be surprised if they pull the trigger on him. Would that be a disappointment to you?

If they succeed in trading down to early-mid 2nd round, my money is on Taylor Rapp. But that is another article.