Do players develop when they don’t play early?

As the Seattle Seahawks trimmed their roster down to 53 players, one of the things that stuck out was that they had managed to keep 18 of the 20 players that they have drafted over the past two years. The only two players out of the 20 drafted in 2018 and 2019 were Alex McGough, who bolted when given a chance to compete for a starting role with the Jacksonville Jaguars, and Jacob Martin, who was dealt to the Houston Texans as part of The Great Clowney Heist of Labor Day Weekend.

I pointed this out Sunday morning, opining that it is potentially not a great sign of things to come for the team. I was, of course and as expected, told that I was wrong, with alternatives proposed as for why I was wrong. I’m more than happy to consider alternatives, and I’m more than happy to be wrong, as the reaction on social media was much more direct and to the point in telling me how incorrect I was. (Authort’s note: I’ve only included the original tweet once to save you time, as this allows you to simply read through the reactions from social media celebrating my lack of intelligence.)

In any case, it’s obvious that the explanations proffered by fans are that the players will learn and develop while sitting the bench and that the team is fine because it does not need to rely on most of these youngsters since they won’t be starting.

And that right there cuts right to the heart of the issue. Good players get on the field early in their careers.

To back up my point, here’s a list of every player drafted by the Seattle Seahawks since Pete Carroll and John Schneider arrived in 2010, along with a simple yes or no column indicating whether that player saw the field for 300 or more offensive or defensive snaps during their rookie season.

Obviously, as a punter Michael Dickson is an exception, but of the 2018 Seahawks draft class, only Tre Flowers saw more than 300 non-special teams snaps as a rookie. Sure, Will Dissly and Jamarco Jones both suffered injuries that ended their seasons, but it’s not like a promising rookie has ever seen their career derailed by a serious injury as a rookie, as we all think back to Thomas Rawls. Even players who did make the 300 snap threshold as rookies have seen injuries derail their careers, as happened to both Michael Bowie and John Moffitt.

Digging even deeper, here’s a comprehensive list of Seahawks draft choices since 2010 that have played fewer than 150 snaps as a rookie. How many of these players went on to develop into a quality player after not seeing the field much as a rookie?

As I down that list of 51 players not named Michael Dickson, there aren’t a whole lot of names that jump out as players I’d be worried about if they weren’t on the roster. Obviously, because his season was cut short as a rookie, Dissly is on that list, as one could argue David Moore, C.J. Prosise, Quinton Jefferson, Mark Glowinski, Jaye Howard, Byron Maxwell and Malcolm Smith could also warrant being included.

However, even nearly half of these names - QJeff, Prosise and Dissly are on the list specifically because of injuries suffered as rookies. In short, quality players make it onto the field as rookies, and the idea that stars, or even role players, develop while sitting early in their careers may not have much merit. Digging right down to the bottom of it, Seattle has a roster that is loaded with youth, but youth and potential don’t win games. Quality play wins games, and quality play comes from quality players.

And therein lies the possible issue, and makes watching how much the 2019 draft class contributes a topic to keep in the back of your mind.