clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

How much draft capital the Seahawks and rest of the league have for 2020 NFL Draft

New, comments
Seattle Seahawks v Cleveland Browns Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images

The second half of April has arrived, which means only one thing - the 2020 NFL Draft is right around the corner. This year the draft is possibly even more highly anticipated than usual because with most of the country under some sort of shelter in place order, and no live sports having been broadcast in more than a month, sports fans are looking for any sort of release.

The draft itself will be unique in its presentation, as it will be conducted virtually as has been widely reported, and that could make for some interesting situations. However, foregoing jokes about New York Giants general manager Dave Gettleman and technology going together about as well as oil and water, the three day endeavor should be a welcome escape for millions.

That said, here is a look at how much draft capital the Seattle Seahawks hold according to each of the four major draft trade charts relative to the rest of the league.

Most fans are familiar with the Jimmy Johnson draft chart, as it has been in use the longest. However, the Johnson trade chart is limited in that it was originally developed based on how draft picks had been historically valued by teams in trades without consideration for the actual expected returns generated by the picks. That has led to the development of many of the other draft charts in recent years.

Rich Hill is a Senior Writer at Pats Pulpit who “Constructed 2017 Draft Value Chart using regressions, strata, and scales to represent NFL Draft economy; seen on ESPN” according to his LinkedIn profile. The chart is as follows.

The Chase Stuart Draft Chart is not something I have in table form, but this is a graphic representation of the chart (the red line) with the actual outcomes of draft picks from the 2008 to 2014 drafts and the smoothed best line (blue line).

Before anyone runs to the comments to point out that this draft chart undervalues picks because the draft value line and the draft pick chart line appear to run parallel for much of the draft, this is intentional. The methodology Stuart used to create the chart was to determine the expected AV outcome of each draft pick, and then to subtract the equivalent of 97.3% of the value of pick 256 from each pick to represent the value of undrafted free agents.

Lastly, here is the Jason Fitzgerald and Brad Spielberger draft chart.

Thus, with all four charts now readily available, when Pete Carroll and John Schneider trade down out of the first round next Thursday rather than take the player fans want them to select, the evaluation of the return on the trade can be looked at on each of the four different charts to see how each chart values picks differently.