/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/67133023/1200560921.jpg.0.jpg)
The most stressful week of football since the draft is now over. I thought it might be interesting to convert the NFL top-100 into a value system for the sake of comparing teams and predicting the 2020 standings.
This year’s been strange enough, so why not use a dubious popularity contest to make guesses about the outcome of football games?
I’ve used a very oversimplified value system; it’s merely a reverse point system from 1-99. One point separates each player from the next, gaining a point each as they climb closer to to the top 100 - the athletes ranking gives their value. Tyler Lockett at 65th position scores 35 points, and Jamal Adams at 27th scores 73 points. I’ve consulted the guys over at Pro Football Focus; the math checks out.
The hypothesis is that what follows would be the result of the truly elite players being the difference makers; the possession of enough such athletes being enough to turn the tide of a season.
This would also come with the assumption that the remainders of NFL rosters are largely comparable, which comes with two problems. One is that some teams are either tanking or led by Bill O’Brien, and the other is that this, by definition, cannot account for rookies who have a significant impact.
But we can’t do anything about that, so we press on to compare the stronger teams in the NFC with this nearly infallible system.
- Russell Wilson: 2
- Bobby Wagner: 13
- Jamal Adams: 27
- Jadeveon Clowney: 41
- Tyler Lockett: 65
- DK Metcalf: 81
- Chris Carson: 96
Subtotal: 316
With Clowney: 375
San Francisco 49ers
7 George Kittle
17 Nick Bosa
28 Richard Sherman
43 Jimmy Garoppolo
Lost 56 DeForest Buckner
70 Fred Warner
Total: 335
Los Angeles Rams
3 Aaron Donald
37 Jalen Ramsey
Lost 51 Todd Gurley
Lost 53 Marcus Peters
89 Cooper Kupp
Total: 171
Arizona Cardinals
8 DeAndre Hopkins
15 Chandler Jones
69 Larry Fitzgerald
90 Kyler Murray
Total: 208
Based on this the NFC West would look as follows:
49ers
Seahawks
Cardinals
Rams
If Jadeveon Clowney re-signs with Seattle it would put their value over San Francisco and move them to first. Which, honestly, feels like a reasonable outcome one could expect. For the sake of this piece, we’re acting as though Clowney will depart because after 118 articles none of us know what in the world he is doing.
I then compiled the values of some of the other NFC contenders, playoff-caliber teams. The first one shows just how sorry the NFC East truly was last year.
Philadelphia Eagles
73 Fletcher Cox
85 Zack Ertz
94 Jason Kelce
98 Brandon Brooks, out for the season
Subtotal: 48
Green Bay Packers
16 Aaron Rodgers
33 Aaron Jones
48 Za’Darius Smith
57 Davante Adams
62 David Bakhtiari
63 Preston Smith
Subtotal: 321
New Orleans Saints
5 Michael Thomas
12 Drew Brees
23 Cameron Jordan
42 Alvin Kamara
67 Demario Davis
76 Marshon Lattimore
82 Ryan Ramczyk
Subtotal: 393!
Minnesota Vikings
21 Dalvin Cook
40 Danielle Hunter
Lost 54 Stefon Diggs
58 Kirk Cousins
64 Harrison Smith
83 Eric Kendricks
Subtotal: 234
Dallas Cowboys
24 Ezekiel Elliot
46 Dak Prescott
49 Amari Cooper
55 Zack Martin
78 Tyron Smith
88 Jaylon Smith
Subtotal: 260
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14 Tom Brady
30 Mike Evans
32 Shaquil Barrett
38 Chris Godwin
100 Lavonte David
Total: 287
For a point of reference, I also did the two best teams in the AFC - Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens.
Kansas City Chiefs
4 Patrick Mahomes
18 Travis Kelce
22 Tyreek Hill
39 Tyrann Mathieu
52 Chris Jones
95 Frank Clark
Total: 370
Baltimore Ravens
1 Lamar Jackson
44 Mark Ingram
53 Marcus Peters
74 Ronnie Staley
75 Earl Thomas
79 Calais Campbell
86 Marlon Humphrey
Total: 288
NFC Playoff Seeding:
- Saints
- 49ers
- Packers
- Seahawks w/o Clowney
- Bucs
- Cowboys
- Vikings
Following this principle, the Super Bowl would be the Saints beating the Chiefs by about four points.
However, if Clowney were to return to Seattle, it would bump their NFC seed to second and put them in a reasonable range of New Orleans, who at this point is just embarrassing the rest of the division. Why haven’t they made it to a Super Bowl again?
Anyway, this was a fun little experiment. The welcome surprise would be the arrival of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a playoff team we haven’t seen in a while. This also goes without Rob Gronkowski qualifying for any points, who’s finished in the top-20 in this poll multiple times.
The full list is below for anyone interested as it’s been difficult to find a simple text version without highlights and bios for easy access.
What do you think of how the rankings shape out this way?
NFL Network’s Top 100
1 Lamar Jackson Quarterback Baltimore Ravens
2 Russell Wilson Quarterback Seattle Seahawks
3 Aaron Donald Defensive Tackle Los Angeles Rams
4 Patrick Mahomes Quarterback Kansas City Chiefs
5 Michael Thomas Wide Receiver New Orleans Saints
6 Christian McCaffrey Running Back Carolina Panthers
7 George Kittle Tight End San Francisco 49ers
8 DeAndre Hopkins Wide Receiver Arizona Cardinals
9 Stephon Gilmore Cornerback New England Patriots
10 Derrick Henry Running back Tennessee Titans
11 Julio Jones Wide receiver Atlanta Falcons
12 Drew Brees Quarterback New Orleans Saints
13 Bobby Wagner Linebacker Seattle Seahawks
14 Tom Brady Quarterback New England Patriots Tampa Bay Buccaneers
15 Chandler Jones Outside linebacker Arizona Cardinals
16 Aaron Rodgers Quarterback Green Bay Packers
17 Nick Bosa Defensive end San Francisco 49ers
18 Travis Kelce Tight end Kansas City Chiefs
19 Khalil Mack Outside linebacker Chicago Bears
20 Deshaun Watson Quarterback Houston Texans
21 Dalvin Cook Running back Minnesota Vikings
22 Tyreek Hill Wide receiver Kansas City Chiefs
23 Cameron Jordan Defensive end New Orleans Saints
24 Ezekiel Elliott Running back Dallas Cowboys
25 T. J. Watt Outside linebacker Pittsburgh Steelers
26 Von Miller Outside linebacker Denver Broncos
27 Jamal Adams Safety New York Jets Seattle Seahawks
28 Richard Sherman Cornerback San Francisco 49ers
29 Quenton Nelson Guard Indianapolis Colts
30 Mike Evans Wide receiver Tampa Bay Buccaneers
31 Saquon Barkley Running back New York Giants
32 Shaquil Barrett Outside linebacker Tampa Bay Buccaneers
33 Aaron Jones Running back Green Bay Packers
34 Joey Bosa Defensive end Los Angeles Chargers
35 Minkah Fitzpatrick Safety Miami Dolphins Pittsburgh Steelers
36 Nick Chubb Running back Cleveland Browns
37 Jalen Ramsey Cornerback Jacksonville Jaguars Los Angeles Rams
38 Chris Godwin Wide receiver Tampa Bay Buccaneers
39 Tyrann Mathieu Safety Kansas City Chiefs
40 Danielle Hunter Defensive end Minnesota Vikings
41 Jadeveon Clowney Defensive end Seattle Seahawks Free Agent
42 Alvin Kamara Running back New Orleans Saints
43 Jimmy Garoppolo Quarterback San Francisco 49ers
44 Mark Ingram Running back Baltimore Ravens
45 J. J. Watt Defensive end Houston Texans
46 Dak Prescott Quarterback Dallas Cowboys
47 Tre’Davious White Cornerback Buffalo Bills
48 Za’Darius Smith Outside linebacker Green Bay Packers
49 Amari Cooper Wide receiver Dallas Cowboys
50 Darius Leonard Linebacker Indianapolis Colts
51 Todd Gurley Running Back Los Angeles Rams Atlanta Falcons
52 Chris Jones Defensive tackle Kansas City Chiefs
53 Marcus Peters Cornerback Los Angeles Rams / Baltimore Ravens
54 Stefon Diggs Wide Receiver Minnesota Vikings Buffalo Bills
55 Zack Martin Guard Dallas Cowboys
56 DeForest Buckner Defensive tackle San Francisco 49ers Indianapolis Colts
57 Davante Adams Wide receiver Green Bay Packers
58 Kirk Cousins Quarterback Minnesota Vikings
59 Odell Beckham Jr. Wide receiver Cleveland Browns
60 Logan Ryan Cornerback Tennessee Titans Free Agent
61 Jarvis Landry Wide receiver Cleveland Browns
62 David Bakhtiari Offensive tackle Green Bay Packers
63 Preston Smith Outside linebacker Green Bay Packers
64 Harrison Smith Safety Minnesota Vikings
65 Tyler Lockett Wide receiver Seattle Seahawks
66 Laremy Tunsil Offensive tackle Houston Texans
67 Demario Davis Linebacker New Orleans Saints
68 Ryan Tannehill Quarterback Tennessee Titans
69 Larry Fitzgerald Wide receiver Arizona Cardinals
70 Fred Warner Linebacker San Francisco 49ers
71 Jurrell Casey Defensive tackle Tennessee Titans Denver Broncos
72 Josh Jacobs Running back Oakland / Las Vegas Raiders
73 Fletcher Cox Defensive tackle Philadelphia Eagles
74 Ronnie Stanley Offensive tackle Baltimore Ravens
75 Earl Thomas Free safety Baltimore Ravens
76 Marshon Lattimore Cornerback New Orleans Saints
77 Keenan Allen Wide receiver Los Angeles Chargers
78 Tyron Smith Offensive tackle Dallas Cowboys
79 Calais Campbell Defensive end Jacksonville Jaguars Baltimore Ravens
80 Myles Garrett Defensive end Cleveland Browns
81 DK Metcalf Wide receiver Seattle Seahawks
82 Ryan Ramczyk Offensive tackle New Orleans Saints
83 Eric Kendricks Linebacker Minnesota Vikings
84 Cameron Heyward Defensive tackle Pittsburgh Steelers
85 Zach Ertz Tight end Philadelphia Eagles
86 Marlon Humphrey Cornerback Baltimore Ravens
87 Josh Allen Quarterback Buffalo Bills
88 Jaylon Smith Linebacker Dallas Cowboys
89 Cooper Kupp Wide receiver Los Angeles Rams
90 Kyler Murray Quarterback Arizona Cardinals
91 Grady Jarrett Defensive tackle Atlanta Falcons
92 Darius Slay Cornerback Detroit Lions Philadelphia Eagles
93 Allen Robinson Wide receiver Chicago Bears
94 Jason Kelce Center Philadelphia Eagles
95 Frank Clark Defensive end Kansas City Chiefs
96 Chris Carson Running back Seattle Seahawks
97 Budda Baker Safety Arizona Cardinals
98 Brandon Brooks Guard Philadelphia Eagles