‘Monday Night Football’ picks, odds, and open thread: Raiders at Chiefs

Monday Night Football will feature a clash between AFC West rivals the Kansas City Chiefs (-7) and the Las Vegas Raiders (+7). The Chiefs are favored by a touchdown at home against the traveling Raiders, according to Draftkings Sportsbook, which isn’t entirely surprising given the state of these two clubs. While both made the playoffs last year, their fortunes have diverged significantly in the early goings of the 2022 season; the Chiefs head into this game with a single loss — a road matchup in Week 3 against the Indianapolis Colts. The Raiders, on the other hand, are 1-3 and currently sit in last place in the division.

The Raiders are obviously hoping to carry some momentum into this game following their first win of the season, having taken down Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos last weekend, but a road tilt against a tough divisional rival is not the game this team needs to get back into contention. The Chiefs, have the 2nd highest scoring offense in the league, and are 5th in weighted DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. Similarly, Patrick Mahomes currently ranks 1st in EPA per dropback, according to Larry Holder of the Athletic. Holder goes on to this of Derek Carr, who ranked 16th:

“Derek Carr has been uncharacteristically shaky with his accuracy. The Raiders quarterback has the sixth-worst catchable pass percentage at 79.9 percent. Carr’s rate from last season was 87.1 percent.”

Both teams are 2-2 on the Over/Under so far, but the Chiefs are 3-1 against the spread; I think Kansas City wins this and I don’t think it will be particularly close.

The Pick: Under 51 points, with Kansas City to win straight up and cover.