Over the past 10 days, there have been two blockbuster trades involving elite wide receivers.
First there was the Davante Adams trade on March 17th with the Green Bay Packers sending Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders for a 2022 first-round pick (#22 overall) and a 2022 second-round pick (#53 overall).
The Raiders then gave Adams a 5-year, $140M contract ($28M APY) with a $19.25M signing bonus and a total of $65.67M guaranteed (contract #s from Spotrac).
Note: Adams’ contract has a “potential out” after Year 3 which, if exercised, would make it 3-year, $67.51M contract with an APY of $22.4M.
Six days later, the Kansas City Chiefs sent shockwaves through the league by trading Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins. In return for the All-World wideout, the Chiefs received a 2022 first-round pick (#29 overall), a 2022 second-round pick (#50 overall), a 2022 fourth-round pick (#121 overall), and 4th and 6th-round picks in next year’s draft.
Note: Reported is in quotes because the 4-year, $120M contract with an APY of $30M is actually a 3-year, $75M extension with another, non-guaranteed year that makes it a 4-year, $120M extension. It’s worth noting that, as structured, Hill’s cap hit in the final year of the deal would be $50.1M.
Unsurprisingly, those two deals, coupled with the Russell Wilson trade and Bobby Wagner’s release, had (and still has) the 12s wondering about what the Seahawks will decide to do with their own elite wideout, DK Metcalf.
I have been of the opinion (for well over a year) that Seattle will not be the team that signs DK to a contract with an APY north of $20M. I am also on record as saying that I think Seattle can get “a significant haul” for DK if there were to decide to trade him. A year ago, most of y’all thought I was nuts; now, maybe not so much.
So what would be a fair trade for DK?
And which teams do I think might be interested?
Let’s start with the two teams that were on the “sender” side of the 2 blockbuster trades: Green Bay and Kansas City.
While it would be fun to see DK Metcalf join the war zone that the AFC West has suddenly become, the Chiefs signed Marquez Valdes-Scantling to a 3-year deal on Thursday and I think that probably takes them out of the high(er)-end, veteran WR market. Plus do we really want a late-R1 (#29 or #30) as part of the trade package for DK? And do we really want to help the Chiefs remain the team to beat in the AFC? My answer would be, “No, not really,” on both of those.
Meanwhile, the Packers are suddenly working with a wideout deficit after trading Adams to Vegas and losing MVS to the Chiefs. But DK doesn’t like the cold so even if Seattle were willing to send him to Green Bay (which I doubt they are), playing home games at Lambeau Field (especially in the latter part of the season) might dissuade D.K. from signing an extension with them and that would (rightly) limit what Seattle would get from the Pack in return.
Note: I’m joking about DK not liking the cold (because he joked about it first). I doubt the Seahawks want to help the Packers reload though.
Having more or less ruled out the Chiefs and the Packers, let’s turn our attention to four teams that might be willing to pony up what it would take to convince Pete Carroll and John Schneider to trade DK Metcalf. And let’s start with the team that I think is the most likely one to be all-in on this hypothetical exercise: the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles have 3 first-round picks this year and could afford to give the Seahawks one of them (and more, of course) to acquire DK. Plus, Philly has regretted passing on Metcalf in the 2019 NFL Draft and this is a chance for them to atone for that error. Their penance should be two of their R1s, but I don’t think their level of contrition is quite that high. That said, I think a trade package that consisted of the 15th and 51st picks in this year’s draft, plus a certain mustachioed quarterback, WR Jalen Reagor, and a 2024 fourth-round pick would get Seattle’s attention.
Note: Reagor was the 21st overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft but has evidently lost the faith of the coaching staff (and fans) and/or has been woefully misused in his first 2 seasons (27 games, 24 starts, 64 receptions, 695 yards, 3 TDs).
The New Orleans Saints are another option. They have a surprising amount of cap space right now (due to their failed pursuit of Deshaun Watson) and could use a receiver like DK Metcalf, especially if there are any lingering questions about Michael Thomas. The Saints’ R1 this year (#18 overall) and their R1 next year is where Seattle should start the discussion with the Saints. This year’s R1, this year’s R2 (#49 overall), and next year’s R2 would be the fallback offer.
The team in in our nation’s capital is also in need of a receiver. And how fun would it be for the Commanders (and their fans) to pair DK Metcalf with his draft-mate, Terry McLaurin? Perhaps Seattle could persuade them to give up the #11 overall pick in this year’s draft and a 2023 second-rounder?
Note: Between them, Metcalf and McLaurin have played in 95 games (94 starts) and have 438 receptions on 715 targets (61.3%) for 6,260 yards and 45 touchdowns. And those stats are pretty evenly split in 3 of the 4 categories. McLaurin leads in receptions (by 6: 222 vs. 216) while DK leads in targets (by 1: 358 vs. 357), in yards (by 80: 3,170 vs. 3,090) and in touchdowns (by a bunch: 29 vs. 16).
Okay ... how about a team that’s not in the NFC?
- Kansas City receives: Picks #35 (R2), #38 (R2) and #69 (R3)
- New York receives: Tyreek Hill and pick #103 (R3)
- Summary: Two very high R2s and a 3rd-round pick-swap for Tyreek Hill
Using the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, this proposal would value Tyreek Hill at 1,227 points which is roughly equivalent to the #11 pick in the draft (1,250 points). Believe it or not, that’s actually more than the value the Chiefs received from the Dolphins - and yet it’s also not at all surprising that Kansas City opted to take Miami’s offer instead of New York’s.
It could be to Seattle’s benefit if the Jets learned a lesson by missing out on Hill.
I doubt NYJ would be willing to include either of their first-round picks (#4 and #10 overall) in a trade for any player, but remove the dueling R3s and add a 2023 R2 and I think they’d have an offer for D.K. that would at least pique Seattle’s interest.
The question that I have is:
What do the 12s think?
Poll #1: Would you trade DK Metcalf to the Eagles for #15 (R1), #51 (R2), QB Gardner Minshew, WR Jalen Reagor, and a 4th-round pick in 2023?
Would you trade D.K. Metcalf to the Eagles for #15 (R1), #51 (R2), QB Gardner Minshew, WR Jalen Reagor, and a 4th-round pick in 2023?
This poll is closed
Poll #2: Would you trade DK Metcalf to the Saints for this year’s R1 (#18 overall) and next year’s R1?
Would you trade D.K. Metcalf to the Saints for this year’s R1 (#18 overall) and next year’s R1?
This poll is closed
Poll #3: Would you trade DK Metcalf to the Commanders for the 11th overall pick in this year’s draft and a 2023 second-round pick?
Would you trade D.K. Metcalf to the Commanders for the 11th overall pick in this year’s draft and a 2023 second-round pick?
This poll is closed
Poll #4: Would you trade DK Metcalf to the Jets for #35 (R2), #38 (R2), and their 2023 R2?
Would you trade D.K. Metcalf to the Jets for #35 (R2), #38 (R2), and their 2023 R2?
This poll is closed
Bonus Poll (for those that voted “Yes” on one or more of the first 4 polls): Which of these hypothetical trades would you prefer to have Seattle agree to?
Which of these hypothetical trades would you prefer to have Seattle agree to?
This poll is closed
1: Trade D.K. Metcalf to the Eagles for #15 (R1), #51 (R2), QB Gardner Minshew, WR Jalen Reagor, and a 4th-round pick in 2023.
2: Trade D.K. Metcalf to the Saints for this year’s R1 (#18 overall) and next year’s R1.
3: Trade D.K. Metcalf to the Commanders for the 11th overall pick in this year’s draft and a 2023 second-round pick.
4: Trade D.K. Metcalf to the Jets for #35 (R2), #38 (R2), and their 2023 R2.