clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

ESPN’s Draft Day Predictor has interesting insights on the 2022 quarterback class

Seattle Seahawks vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Set Number: X157156 TK1 R2 F86

As the 2022 NFL Draft approaches, the 12s are going back and forth on whether or not the Seahawks should use one of their picks on a quarterback.

For the purposes of today’s article, I’m going to be Switzerland and remain completely neutral. Zero opinions. Just facts. Or, to be more precise, predictions based on an algorithm that ESPN created and then shared with the public via their NFL Draft Day Predictor.

There are six quarterbacks included in ESPN’s predictive model: Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett, Matt Corral, Desmond Ridder, Sam Howell, and Carson Strong.

Let’s dive in.


First draft spot projected as a possible pick (plus the chance they’ll be selected there):

  • Malik Willis: #2 overall (5% chance)
  • Kenny Pickett: #2 (2% chance)
  • Matt Corral: #19 (1.5% chance)
  • Desmond Ridder: #19 (1% chance)
  • Sam Howell: #19 (<1% chance)
  • Carson Strong: #49 (0.8% chance)

Last spot with a 90% projected availability:

  • Malik Willis: #6
  • Kenny Pickett: #6
  • Desmond Ridder: #21
  • Matt Corral: #26
  • Sam Howell: #31
  • Carson Strong: #73

Expected to be selected no later than:

  • Malik Willis: #34
  • Kenny Pickett: #37
  • Desmond Ridder: #58
  • Matt Corral: #66
  • Sam Howell: #70
  • Carson Strong: #130

Chance of being available at #9:

  • Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett: 65%
  • The other four QBs: >99.9%

Chance of being selected at #9:

  • Malik Willis: 13.5%
  • Kenny Pickett: 4%
  • The other four QBs: <0.1%

Chance of being available at #40 or #41:

  • Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett: <0.1%
  • Desmond Ridder: roughly 35% at #40, slightly lower at #41
  • Matt Corral: roughly 50% at #40; 45% at #41
  • Sam Howell: Roughly 60% at #40; 55% at #41
  • Carson Strong: >99.9%

Chance of being selected at #40 or #41:

  • Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett: <0.1%
  • Matt Corral: About 6% at #40; about 4% at #41
  • Desmond Ridder: About 6% at #40; slightly higher at #41
  • Sam Howell: About 7% at #40; slightly higher at #41
  • Carson Strong: <0.1%

Chance of being available at #72 and chance of being selected there:

  • Carson Strong: 84% chance of being available; 1.6% chance of being selected
  • The other 5 quarterbacks: <0.1% on both

Chance of being available at #109 and chance of being selected there:

  • Carson Strong: 35% chance of being available; 1.2% chance of being selected
  • The other 5 quarterbacks: <0.1% on both

Last, but not least, here is where the ESPN 2022 NFL Draft Day Predictor thinks each of these six quarterbacks has the best odds of being selected:

  • Kenny Pickett: #6 (27% chance)
  • Malik Willis: #9 (13.5% chance)
  • Desmond Ridder: #32 or #34 (10% chance of each)
  • Matt Corral: #32 or #34 (10% chance of each)
  • Sam Howell: #43 (8% chance)
  • Carson Strong: #82 or #84 (2% chance of each)